Dear All
I hope some of you collected on Rossvoss in the last at Galway today. I didn't!
It was a good example of being intoxicated by a big yard... it was a maiden race and, as you will know by now, these types of contest are one of my favourite disciplines. The RPRs suggested to me that the fancied runners were unlikely winners.
Poinsettia was interesting to me because first and foremost she was trained at Ballydoyle, there was good form from an earlier outing which achieved an 80+ RPR and, importantly, the odds were juicy... I thought a winning angle had been discovered. She had though run only 5 days earlier and was pulled up; a reappearance after such a short time, having been pulled up, indicated to me that there was no injury. Today was the day!
Nevertheless, I was concerned that the price was continuously getting bigger. Poinsettia was well beaten; finishing a distant last of nine runners.
Rossvoss, on the other hand, had the following numbers sgainst his name 6856 and on the face of it and being from an unfashionable yard (at least in Flat racing terms) was not a betting prospect. Delve deeper into the numbers though and a more compelling argument could be formed. Look at the quality of the races he appeared in as a juvenile, albeit, some way back. The yard obviously believed the colt to have some ability. He was a close-up 5th in the Beresford Stakes, a highly respected Derby trial. These contests enabled him to post the best RPR of any runner in today's race.
A chance missed!
Tomorrow, I have unearthed - not a particularly startling discovery - a little nugget at Goodwood. Watch the Racing Post videos of the two efforts posted by Free Verse (owned by The Queen)and be impressed by her winning debut performance over 6-furlongs at Windsor. The drop down to 5-furlongs was probably not in her favour next time up in class in the Listed St Hugh's Stakes at Newbury but I suspect the draw was more significant. The first 3 home that day were in stalls 2,5 and 1. Free Verse was drawn 14 and never got into contention.
Tomorrow she looks a good thing on her Nursery debut at Goodwood; joint top RPR and clear Topspeed. I have already backed her at 4s with Bet365 buoyed by the excellent record of Hannon and Hughes at the course.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Tuesday 30 August 2011
Sunday 28 August 2011
Bolt-ed!
Dear All
The first race at Yarmouth today was a good example of how to make money in these type of contests.
The favourite - Appointee - from big yard, weakish in market; failed to achieve an RPR of 80 in two juvenile starts (both similar) but clearly pick of those to have raced.
The 2nd in the market - unraced - also weakish in the market.
The 3rd in the market had form falling short of Appointee.
Whilst the 4th - Alsindi - an unraced animal from the Brittain stable, was being well backed...
Look for these contests by checking near the off time on Oddschecker; be ready to pounce...
Rm(M)
The first race at Yarmouth today was a good example of how to make money in these type of contests.
The favourite - Appointee - from big yard, weakish in market; failed to achieve an RPR of 80 in two juvenile starts (both similar) but clearly pick of those to have raced.
The 2nd in the market - unraced - also weakish in the market.
The 3rd in the market had form falling short of Appointee.
Whilst the 4th - Alsindi - an unraced animal from the Brittain stable, was being well backed...
Look for these contests by checking near the off time on Oddschecker; be ready to pounce...
Rm(M)
Saturday 27 August 2011
Bank Holiday Rain...
Dear All
The title of today's blog has been used before and recently... punting looked a bit of minefield before racing today so I decided, early doors, that making recommendations was folly and declined the opportunity.
Nevertheless, I did place one or two wagers of my own today and spurned a few other opportunities. Eton Rifles (in the 7-furlong handicap at Goodwood) was rejected from a value perspective and I've just seen that Opera Gal beat the supposed "good-thing" Elusive Pimpernel (a perennial disappointment!). Frustration again as was quite sweet on its chances but hesitated and missed the opportunity.
A cheeky Goodwood win treble went down at the second hurdle - Motrice first up - fancied quite strongly to turn over Drunken Sailor - Rakasa - caught on the line, by an admittedly deserving Regal Realm - who found all the trouble it needed - and Poet's Voice - who I couldn't see beaten in the Celebration Mile - but ran a shocker. Godolphin's winners are almost always strong in the market whereas the Poet looked strangely vulnerable...
This was followed by a bout of seconditis as Storming Bernard and Blue Surf were both turned over and the friendless Casual Glimpse was a no show in the Eton Rifles race...
The day is tinged with sadness at the news that this year's Derby winner is to be retired. Top class flat racing really is dominated by the select few. Ballydoyle was all over the Derby with Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee, Recital and Seville representing its might; Godolphin saddled a lesser light but Sheikh Mohammed had presented Her Majesty with Carlton House. Add Prince Khalid Abdulla and HH The Aga Khan and you are served up a potent mix plundering most of the Group 1 contests across the three powerhouse territories of Europe.
I mention this because it was quickly announced that Pour Moi will stand at Coolmore to add to its roster of princely bloodstock. Galileo, Montjeu, Danehill Dancer, Footstepsinthesand, Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Yeats, Peintre Celebre, Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral and Holy Roman Emperor to name but a few - a veritable Who's Who of top class animal...
Incredible therefore that Coolmore has failed to produce a Derby winner since the aforementioned High Chaparral in 2002. Amazingly, thirty-nine Coolmore participants have come to the party and failed since then; some of these have been truly outstanding racehorses...
Happy punting...
Rm(M)
The title of today's blog has been used before and recently... punting looked a bit of minefield before racing today so I decided, early doors, that making recommendations was folly and declined the opportunity.
Nevertheless, I did place one or two wagers of my own today and spurned a few other opportunities. Eton Rifles (in the 7-furlong handicap at Goodwood) was rejected from a value perspective and I've just seen that Opera Gal beat the supposed "good-thing" Elusive Pimpernel (a perennial disappointment!). Frustration again as was quite sweet on its chances but hesitated and missed the opportunity.
A cheeky Goodwood win treble went down at the second hurdle - Motrice first up - fancied quite strongly to turn over Drunken Sailor - Rakasa - caught on the line, by an admittedly deserving Regal Realm - who found all the trouble it needed - and Poet's Voice - who I couldn't see beaten in the Celebration Mile - but ran a shocker. Godolphin's winners are almost always strong in the market whereas the Poet looked strangely vulnerable...
This was followed by a bout of seconditis as Storming Bernard and Blue Surf were both turned over and the friendless Casual Glimpse was a no show in the Eton Rifles race...
The day is tinged with sadness at the news that this year's Derby winner is to be retired. Top class flat racing really is dominated by the select few. Ballydoyle was all over the Derby with Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee, Recital and Seville representing its might; Godolphin saddled a lesser light but Sheikh Mohammed had presented Her Majesty with Carlton House. Add Prince Khalid Abdulla and HH The Aga Khan and you are served up a potent mix plundering most of the Group 1 contests across the three powerhouse territories of Europe.
I mention this because it was quickly announced that Pour Moi will stand at Coolmore to add to its roster of princely bloodstock. Galileo, Montjeu, Danehill Dancer, Footstepsinthesand, Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Yeats, Peintre Celebre, Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral and Holy Roman Emperor to name but a few - a veritable Who's Who of top class animal...
Incredible therefore that Coolmore has failed to produce a Derby winner since the aforementioned High Chaparral in 2002. Amazingly, thirty-nine Coolmore participants have come to the party and failed since then; some of these have been truly outstanding racehorses...
Happy punting...
Rm(M)
Wednesday 24 August 2011
Title chasers...
Dear All
I don't know if you share similar feelings to me but what is the fuss about the Flat Jockeys' Championship! It may be regarded as prestigious by the various jocks who have lifted the crown but does anyone following racing - apart from those talking through their pockets - really care?
We hear of certain jockeys tearing around the country; seemingly at three meetings a day during high summer, presumably creating a more hazardous environment for all of us. So, in some cases jockeys rides are being manufactured to ensure they remain competitive; those like Hanagan, Fallon and De Sousa climb aboard many more rides than high quality pilots like Philip Robinson, James Doyle, Hayley Turner and Jamie Spencer. The champion jockey should be the best jockey not the one with the most air miles!
How would it be if Aston Villa played three times as many games as Manchester United in order to make the club competitive in the Premier League!
I am not even sure that a competitive jockeys' title race adds to the spectacle of the sport. Yes of course the BBC will revel in it. Its patronising coverage (designed for those that dip in and out of the game) majored upon the Grand National and high profile personalities like Mc Coy, Dettori and Sir Henry, will point to its value. Yes, the Spencer-Sanders battle in 2007 was a decent spectacle but did it interest anyone outside the sport?
Talking of the BBC, when Hayley Turner won her G1 recently you would think she had discovered a cure for all of the World's ills. Hayley, appears to these eyes, to be a high quality jockey who has been capable of winning at this level for some time and will surely do so on many more occasions. It was a matter of record but no more than that although I am sure Hayley herself was thrilled to have ticked another of her career boxes. Women's rise to prominence in the sport is significant but let's cover it in a proper journalistic way and not simply with obsequious, condescending coverage.
Rant over!
System qualifiers worthy of mention today:
Circus Clown (3:20 Catterick) Tudhope for Goldie
Sennockian Storm (6:40 Wolverhampton)
Celebrity Sevi (6;00 Killarney)
Daffern Seal (7:00 Killarney)
Happy punting
Rm(M)
I don't know if you share similar feelings to me but what is the fuss about the Flat Jockeys' Championship! It may be regarded as prestigious by the various jocks who have lifted the crown but does anyone following racing - apart from those talking through their pockets - really care?
We hear of certain jockeys tearing around the country; seemingly at three meetings a day during high summer, presumably creating a more hazardous environment for all of us. So, in some cases jockeys rides are being manufactured to ensure they remain competitive; those like Hanagan, Fallon and De Sousa climb aboard many more rides than high quality pilots like Philip Robinson, James Doyle, Hayley Turner and Jamie Spencer. The champion jockey should be the best jockey not the one with the most air miles!
How would it be if Aston Villa played three times as many games as Manchester United in order to make the club competitive in the Premier League!
I am not even sure that a competitive jockeys' title race adds to the spectacle of the sport. Yes of course the BBC will revel in it. Its patronising coverage (designed for those that dip in and out of the game) majored upon the Grand National and high profile personalities like Mc Coy, Dettori and Sir Henry, will point to its value. Yes, the Spencer-Sanders battle in 2007 was a decent spectacle but did it interest anyone outside the sport?
Talking of the BBC, when Hayley Turner won her G1 recently you would think she had discovered a cure for all of the World's ills. Hayley, appears to these eyes, to be a high quality jockey who has been capable of winning at this level for some time and will surely do so on many more occasions. It was a matter of record but no more than that although I am sure Hayley herself was thrilled to have ticked another of her career boxes. Women's rise to prominence in the sport is significant but let's cover it in a proper journalistic way and not simply with obsequious, condescending coverage.
Rant over!
System qualifiers worthy of mention today:
Circus Clown (3:20 Catterick) Tudhope for Goldie
Sennockian Storm (6:40 Wolverhampton)
Celebrity Sevi (6;00 Killarney)
Daffern Seal (7:00 Killarney)
Happy punting
Rm(M)
Monday 22 August 2011
Forget Manchester City; Ayr is where it's at!
Dear All
A short while ago (Tuesday, 16th August blog), I mentioned Nasri as an interesting contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. The prices are now out and you can back Nasri at 28s with Bet365. Get on!
Rm(M)
A short while ago (Tuesday, 16th August blog), I mentioned Nasri as an interesting contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. The prices are now out and you can back Nasri at 28s with Bet365. Get on!
Rm(M)
Saturday 20 August 2011
The final day...
Dear All...
Yesterday was tough and a mixed day overall...
The opener today is an ultra-competitive 7-furlong Listed contest (2:00). I'm not going to linger on it for too long. Regal Parade is a class act and its speed rating is evidence of its very realistic claims for victory here. Adrian's on board for his father which is always a plus.
The one I like though is the seasonal debutante, Dafeef. Very consistent last season, although a little quirky, when trained for Godolphin, but form with Deacon Blues and Bated Breath reads well. Now with William Haggas - first time up for new yard is often the best time to catch an animal reacting positively to its new surroundings - in the blue and white of Sheikh Hamdan. Small stakes but interesting!
Each of this week's contests seem highly competitive. The Melrose (2:30) is no different. Communicator is one of the favourites on the tissue and represents the Bell-Turner combo successful yesterday with Margot Did. However, maybe Hayley cannot do the weight on Wayward Glance so Wayne Lordan has been brought over from Ireland. My three against the field are this one, Masaraat and Romeo Montague; both are identified positively by the trends and in the case of Wayward Glance and Romeo Montague, both fit that dual criteria that I like of carrying a featherweight and winning last time out.
In the Lonsdale (3:05) I am firmly in Duncan's court. Was in front 4 out on the Ascot Gold Cup before its stamina ebbed away in the latter stages. Has the class to win this.
The key to the Ebor (3:450 is the weight and age stats which narrows the filed considerably. We are looking for a 4 or 5 year old carrying no more than 9:4. I am not focussed on any animal in particular but these 3 interest me - Harlestone Times, Blissful Moment and Investissement - I think the winner will come from one of these. All are from stables that know the time of day in these type of handicaps.
In the 5-furlong Listed Roses Stakes (4:15), Gusto will cope admirably with the drop down in trip and win this with something to spare.
I have strong feelings about the Nursery at 4:50 so it's a no bet race for me.
York Glory is the one for me in the last (5:20); could be important in the race for the Jockeys' prize with Fallon jocked up by Kevin Ryan. A bit short perhaps but good RPR and a winner last time out; stable in rare good form...
Happy punting.
Rm(M)
Yesterday was tough and a mixed day overall...
The opener today is an ultra-competitive 7-furlong Listed contest (2:00). I'm not going to linger on it for too long. Regal Parade is a class act and its speed rating is evidence of its very realistic claims for victory here. Adrian's on board for his father which is always a plus.
The one I like though is the seasonal debutante, Dafeef. Very consistent last season, although a little quirky, when trained for Godolphin, but form with Deacon Blues and Bated Breath reads well. Now with William Haggas - first time up for new yard is often the best time to catch an animal reacting positively to its new surroundings - in the blue and white of Sheikh Hamdan. Small stakes but interesting!
Each of this week's contests seem highly competitive. The Melrose (2:30) is no different. Communicator is one of the favourites on the tissue and represents the Bell-Turner combo successful yesterday with Margot Did. However, maybe Hayley cannot do the weight on Wayward Glance so Wayne Lordan has been brought over from Ireland. My three against the field are this one, Masaraat and Romeo Montague; both are identified positively by the trends and in the case of Wayward Glance and Romeo Montague, both fit that dual criteria that I like of carrying a featherweight and winning last time out.
In the Lonsdale (3:05) I am firmly in Duncan's court. Was in front 4 out on the Ascot Gold Cup before its stamina ebbed away in the latter stages. Has the class to win this.
The key to the Ebor (3:450 is the weight and age stats which narrows the filed considerably. We are looking for a 4 or 5 year old carrying no more than 9:4. I am not focussed on any animal in particular but these 3 interest me - Harlestone Times, Blissful Moment and Investissement - I think the winner will come from one of these. All are from stables that know the time of day in these type of handicaps.
In the 5-furlong Listed Roses Stakes (4:15), Gusto will cope admirably with the drop down in trip and win this with something to spare.
I have strong feelings about the Nursery at 4:50 so it's a no bet race for me.
York Glory is the one for me in the last (5:20); could be important in the race for the Jockeys' prize with Fallon jocked up by Kevin Ryan. A bit short perhaps but good RPR and a winner last time out; stable in rare good form...
Happy punting.
Rm(M)
Friday 19 August 2011
Dear All
A disappointing return yesterday - less said the better but as all of you who punt will know only too well it happens..!
The opening handicap today (2:00) is virtually impossible. The only narrowing of the field I can make is, firstly, to 4-year olds, who seem to hold sway in recent renewals then the in-form runners i.e. Agent Archie (Haggas-trained; a proud Yorkshireman!), Lady Chaparral, Doctor Zhivago and McBirney... Not much help! Sorry!
Please note though that Messrs. Stoute and Johnston have won all of the last 4 of these.
The Gimcrack (2:30) doesn't look a great race to me this year. Justineo is in my Notebook but, although a mightily in-form Jamie Spencer is a major plus, the horse doesn't look good enough purely on ratings. Everything in the race has either blotted its copybook or achieved little. On that basis, it's a no bet race for me but if the Haggas animal was a working man's price I might step in... unlikely!!!
I think Western Aristocrat (3:05)is the unexposed one in the Strensall and I like its chances. Stoutly bred on the dam's side he appears to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Posted an excellent speed rating at Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes) and appears to have bags of improvement in him. Noseda has booked the French wizard, Olivier Peslier (lay off the pasties Olivier!) and all looks set fare for a big run.
I have always loved last time out winners with the top RPR, especially so if 5 pounds clear. Hoof It only has 2lbs in hand in the Nunthorpe (3:45)but is fast improving and the traditionally garrulous Mick Easterby's enthusiasm for the animal is infectious.
This race carries the most extraordinary stat. The last 7 winners were all a different age. Regrettably, there is no 8-year old to complete the sequence.
I read somewhere this week that Bated Breath is indifferent to ground conditions. Roger Charlton, always erring towards the side of caution, clearly disagrees as soft ground is often the cause for his enduring concern. The formbook cocks a snook at this theory also. All of its best form does appear to be on fast ground. All runs where the animal has finished outside the top three were on ground where the letter "F" was absent from the going description. The ground has been riding as if plenty of ease exists and the overnight rain will not have helped.
Juveniles have a good record in this race and David Wachman rarely tilts at windmills. I also love last time out winners at the bottom of the weights so Requinto is my selection; the price might be a little more attractive but bookmakers' fingers have been charred before by youngsters in this fascinating contest.
A maiden, at last, is next (4:15); the first of the week and usually an informative one; the most valuable (in prize money terms) maiden race of the season. It is full of possibilities. With maidens the first point of call is to establish whether any of the raced horses has posted an effort which means their experience will be put to good use. A newcomer has to be exceptional (and backed heavily) otherwise.
The debutantes come from all the right yards; Ballydoyle (twofold), Sir Henry, Hannon (won with Moriarty last year!), Noseda, Suroor and Zarooni...
I am not convinced that either of Llanarmon Lad or Burano are going to be good enough here; prefer the former (sure will be placed in first 3)...
Watch the market. The backed newcomers will come to the fore. No bet at this stage. Imperial Order - keep a close eye on him...
The final contest - a 7F fillies' handicap - is just too tricky. Coolminx (joint top-rated/winner last time out) is the one to which I keep coming back. Lee Topliss might be on board to counteract the penalty but nevertheless Paul Hanagan is on Jeanie Galloway for his guv'nor and catches the eye; a Fahey plot at his home course perhaps!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
A disappointing return yesterday - less said the better but as all of you who punt will know only too well it happens..!
The opening handicap today (2:00) is virtually impossible. The only narrowing of the field I can make is, firstly, to 4-year olds, who seem to hold sway in recent renewals then the in-form runners i.e. Agent Archie (Haggas-trained; a proud Yorkshireman!), Lady Chaparral, Doctor Zhivago and McBirney... Not much help! Sorry!
Please note though that Messrs. Stoute and Johnston have won all of the last 4 of these.
The Gimcrack (2:30) doesn't look a great race to me this year. Justineo is in my Notebook but, although a mightily in-form Jamie Spencer is a major plus, the horse doesn't look good enough purely on ratings. Everything in the race has either blotted its copybook or achieved little. On that basis, it's a no bet race for me but if the Haggas animal was a working man's price I might step in... unlikely!!!
I think Western Aristocrat (3:05)is the unexposed one in the Strensall and I like its chances. Stoutly bred on the dam's side he appears to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Posted an excellent speed rating at Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes) and appears to have bags of improvement in him. Noseda has booked the French wizard, Olivier Peslier (lay off the pasties Olivier!) and all looks set fare for a big run.
I have always loved last time out winners with the top RPR, especially so if 5 pounds clear. Hoof It only has 2lbs in hand in the Nunthorpe (3:45)but is fast improving and the traditionally garrulous Mick Easterby's enthusiasm for the animal is infectious.
This race carries the most extraordinary stat. The last 7 winners were all a different age. Regrettably, there is no 8-year old to complete the sequence.
I read somewhere this week that Bated Breath is indifferent to ground conditions. Roger Charlton, always erring towards the side of caution, clearly disagrees as soft ground is often the cause for his enduring concern. The formbook cocks a snook at this theory also. All of its best form does appear to be on fast ground. All runs where the animal has finished outside the top three were on ground where the letter "F" was absent from the going description. The ground has been riding as if plenty of ease exists and the overnight rain will not have helped.
Juveniles have a good record in this race and David Wachman rarely tilts at windmills. I also love last time out winners at the bottom of the weights so Requinto is my selection; the price might be a little more attractive but bookmakers' fingers have been charred before by youngsters in this fascinating contest.
A maiden, at last, is next (4:15); the first of the week and usually an informative one; the most valuable (in prize money terms) maiden race of the season. It is full of possibilities. With maidens the first point of call is to establish whether any of the raced horses has posted an effort which means their experience will be put to good use. A newcomer has to be exceptional (and backed heavily) otherwise.
The debutantes come from all the right yards; Ballydoyle (twofold), Sir Henry, Hannon (won with Moriarty last year!), Noseda, Suroor and Zarooni...
I am not convinced that either of Llanarmon Lad or Burano are going to be good enough here; prefer the former (sure will be placed in first 3)...
Watch the market. The backed newcomers will come to the fore. No bet at this stage. Imperial Order - keep a close eye on him...
The final contest - a 7F fillies' handicap - is just too tricky. Coolminx (joint top-rated/winner last time out) is the one to which I keep coming back. Lee Topliss might be on board to counteract the penalty but nevertheless Paul Hanagan is on Jeanie Galloway for his guv'nor and catches the eye; a Fahey plot at his home course perhaps!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Thursday 18 August 2011
Fetch the bunting out or will the Irish have the last laugh!
Dear All...
Very pleased with yesterday's first three races where, despite finding no punting opportunity (did have a sneaky yankee!), we did highlight the big priced second (early price anyway)in the opener and the first 3 home in th next two contests. Rodrigo didn't appear and My Boy Jack remains in the Notebook.
The other Notebook horses were disappointing. I constantly review how long I keep these live depending upon the origin of the information. One or two I get horribly wrong. Nevertheless, I don't back them blind; merely serve as a pointer.
The medium I use has not supplied the information today so playing in the dark...
Let's concentrate on York...
Do we really want to back Crown Dependency (2:00) at the prices. Might win; RPRs say he will; from the right yard with jockey expert at getting these types home in front but with 20 runners, mostly unexposed, surely one of them will improve past a horse which has been beaten in more races than it has won and both of its recent starts. I'm against. Not a lay though, unless odds-on.
Hestian interests me. I haven't looked at the stats but I think Tommy Stack has a good record when bringing fancied types over here.
The Lowther (2:30)is even tighter than the Acomb. Again, discipline is the order of the day. The last 5 renewals suggest that the two penalised runners, Best Terms and Gamilati will be beaten; Angels Will Fall has yet to put up a significant time (small field victories though) but is the solid contender. I give it a significant chance but I can't help liking the collateral form with Frederick Engels and the debut of RPR of 90+ posted by Shumoos who, like Fort Bastion yesterday, might come back to form. Two factors against Shumoos which prevent me from giving her a major word are the uncertainty of the ground (posted that high RPR on good to firm) and the trip (best RPR over 5F - however, the breeding gives me hope.
Again, no strong view on the Addleshaw Goddard (3:05) but the evidence says that no horse older than 4 years can win this (spurious stat I know!) but in the absence of other compelling evidence let's go with it. By that stat. alone the field is narrowed (Ben Aitken)to 7. Add these next two ingredients to the mix - joint top RPR and Spencer riding for Simcock - and suddenly you are sitting in a vat of chocolate with nobody watching!
It's not scientific but I like it. Pintura wins the 3:05(!)
The Yorkshire Oaks (3:45) is tarnished by the non-appearance of the commendably tough and talented Snow Fairy but it remains a fair field.The evidence of the last 5 years tells us, quite powerfully, that this race is won by a superstar(ess)! The only one of those in this field is now a non-runner.
We are looking for a champion 4-year old - Crystal Cappella is the closest - or a classic-winning 3-year old. Step up Blue Bunting or Banimpire. The trouble with the former of these two is her requirement for a fast pace to sit off and then swoop late. Will she get these circumstances in an 8-runner field? Back -in-running is best option when pace of contest known or, for those of you, who must have a wager then a combination exacta. Not convinced though; save pennies for a better opportunity.
Right! The Galtres (4:15). If Banimpire wins the Oaks then Field of Miracles should be a warm order in this. Forget her performance in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood, the balance of her form gives her a fair chance here. The older horses are not good enough; Polly's Mark may run into a place.
A tricky staying handicap (4:50) to conclude. Not much to say here. I looked at this from both sides now (Joni Mitchell 1970) and have no real basis upon which to hang the hat I don't own. Alazan is from a jumps yard and Hughesie is up and Sea Change (long absence) / Chilly Filly are from dual-purpose yards, all fit age stat (limited evidence) all finished 3rd last time (semblance of form) and all are unepxosed at the trip. The best RPR at trip is Magicalmysterytour who does not have a progressive profile... might be one lurking beneath (like Pam Ayres' false teeth) but I doubt it.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
ps - thank you to Richard Stoddart for his invaluable help with Twitter late last night!
Very pleased with yesterday's first three races where, despite finding no punting opportunity (did have a sneaky yankee!), we did highlight the big priced second (early price anyway)in the opener and the first 3 home in th next two contests. Rodrigo didn't appear and My Boy Jack remains in the Notebook.
The other Notebook horses were disappointing. I constantly review how long I keep these live depending upon the origin of the information. One or two I get horribly wrong. Nevertheless, I don't back them blind; merely serve as a pointer.
The medium I use has not supplied the information today so playing in the dark...
Let's concentrate on York...
Do we really want to back Crown Dependency (2:00) at the prices. Might win; RPRs say he will; from the right yard with jockey expert at getting these types home in front but with 20 runners, mostly unexposed, surely one of them will improve past a horse which has been beaten in more races than it has won and both of its recent starts. I'm against. Not a lay though, unless odds-on.
Hestian interests me. I haven't looked at the stats but I think Tommy Stack has a good record when bringing fancied types over here.
The Lowther (2:30)is even tighter than the Acomb. Again, discipline is the order of the day. The last 5 renewals suggest that the two penalised runners, Best Terms and Gamilati will be beaten; Angels Will Fall has yet to put up a significant time (small field victories though) but is the solid contender. I give it a significant chance but I can't help liking the collateral form with Frederick Engels and the debut of RPR of 90+ posted by Shumoos who, like Fort Bastion yesterday, might come back to form. Two factors against Shumoos which prevent me from giving her a major word are the uncertainty of the ground (posted that high RPR on good to firm) and the trip (best RPR over 5F - however, the breeding gives me hope.
Again, no strong view on the Addleshaw Goddard (3:05) but the evidence says that no horse older than 4 years can win this (spurious stat I know!) but in the absence of other compelling evidence let's go with it. By that stat. alone the field is narrowed (Ben Aitken)to 7. Add these next two ingredients to the mix - joint top RPR and Spencer riding for Simcock - and suddenly you are sitting in a vat of chocolate with nobody watching!
It's not scientific but I like it. Pintura wins the 3:05(!)
The Yorkshire Oaks (3:45) is tarnished by the non-appearance of the commendably tough and talented Snow Fairy but it remains a fair field.The evidence of the last 5 years tells us, quite powerfully, that this race is won by a superstar(ess)! The only one of those in this field is now a non-runner.
We are looking for a champion 4-year old - Crystal Cappella is the closest - or a classic-winning 3-year old. Step up Blue Bunting or Banimpire. The trouble with the former of these two is her requirement for a fast pace to sit off and then swoop late. Will she get these circumstances in an 8-runner field? Back -in-running is best option when pace of contest known or, for those of you, who must have a wager then a combination exacta. Not convinced though; save pennies for a better opportunity.
Right! The Galtres (4:15). If Banimpire wins the Oaks then Field of Miracles should be a warm order in this. Forget her performance in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood, the balance of her form gives her a fair chance here. The older horses are not good enough; Polly's Mark may run into a place.
A tricky staying handicap (4:50) to conclude. Not much to say here. I looked at this from both sides now (Joni Mitchell 1970) and have no real basis upon which to hang the hat I don't own. Alazan is from a jumps yard and Hughesie is up and Sea Change (long absence) / Chilly Filly are from dual-purpose yards, all fit age stat (limited evidence) all finished 3rd last time (semblance of form) and all are unepxosed at the trip. The best RPR at trip is Magicalmysterytour who does not have a progressive profile... might be one lurking beneath (like Pam Ayres' false teeth) but I doubt it.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
ps - thank you to Richard Stoddart for his invaluable help with Twitter late last night!
Wednesday 17 August 2011
Are you awaiting the dawn or are you more of a midday person..?
Dear All
Nothing grabbing me this morning especially but let me tell you what thoughts I do have...
I have been tracking Rac(e)y (Some Girls Do!!!) all season - Kevin Ryan's have been in rare form all year - and he is of interest in the opening sprint handicap (2:00pm). Best price is 16s as we speak. Don't be too perturbed that Spencer is not in the saddle; he is almost certainly committed to Ryan's other runner as Falasteen is owned by the Good Doctor (Marwan Koukash). A former inmate of Stoute's and,at that time from the powerful Cheveley Park Stud unit, he is by Medicean and really should stay further on breeding.
There are lots of options in the Acomb (2:30) and it's a No Bet race for me. I think that either Entifaadha or Zumbi will win but expect Fort Bastion to run better than expected; his RPR on debut was impressive and Maybe has franked the form.
I have 4 in my Notebook for the Voltigeur (3:05)...
Sea Moon - could be anything and Hughes an interesting booking by Stoute. Fallon nor Spencer considered?
Thimaar,Hunter's Light and Al Kazeem probably not good enough but all are interesting especially the latter who was pulled out of a contest earlier this month. I like recent non-runners as it suggests that the horse is primed to run but connections are waiting for the conditions to be perfect when the cash is down!
Seville should win but 1 win from 7 tempers enthusiasm at the price...
The Juddmonte (3:40pm) is trappy. History points to a 3 or 4-year old winner and a colt all of which points away from Midday though her record is such that she cannot be dismissed. Her adjusted RPR is 1lb ahead of Await The Dawn so, although he also has sound claims, at odds-on I will pass. I have this irksome loyalty to Roderic O'Connor solely because he in my TTTF team and I backed him to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. Looking at the performances of Ballydoyle's 3-year olds in this race over the recent times suggests he ain't going to win. If I was having a bet though it would be a small wager on Roderic on the nose!
I will continue to follow Our Boy Jack for the time being so he is my selection for the Nursery (4:15pm)
I have no selection for the concluding handicap.
Others in the Notebook who are running today are:
Doc Hay - 3:15 Carlisle.
Sansili - 6:40 Hereford - winning system qualifier (follow until beaten)
Wychwoods Mist - 8:10 Hereford - system qualifier; pulled up last time.
Midnight Feast - 7:00 Folkestone - needs to learn to settle.
Midsummer Sun - 3:30 Nottingham - one more chance. Highly reagrded.
That's it folks.
Good luck.
Rm(M)
Nothing grabbing me this morning especially but let me tell you what thoughts I do have...
I have been tracking Rac(e)y (Some Girls Do!!!) all season - Kevin Ryan's have been in rare form all year - and he is of interest in the opening sprint handicap (2:00pm). Best price is 16s as we speak. Don't be too perturbed that Spencer is not in the saddle; he is almost certainly committed to Ryan's other runner as Falasteen is owned by the Good Doctor (Marwan Koukash). A former inmate of Stoute's and,at that time from the powerful Cheveley Park Stud unit, he is by Medicean and really should stay further on breeding.
There are lots of options in the Acomb (2:30) and it's a No Bet race for me. I think that either Entifaadha or Zumbi will win but expect Fort Bastion to run better than expected; his RPR on debut was impressive and Maybe has franked the form.
I have 4 in my Notebook for the Voltigeur (3:05)...
Sea Moon - could be anything and Hughes an interesting booking by Stoute. Fallon nor Spencer considered?
Thimaar,Hunter's Light and Al Kazeem probably not good enough but all are interesting especially the latter who was pulled out of a contest earlier this month. I like recent non-runners as it suggests that the horse is primed to run but connections are waiting for the conditions to be perfect when the cash is down!
Seville should win but 1 win from 7 tempers enthusiasm at the price...
The Juddmonte (3:40pm) is trappy. History points to a 3 or 4-year old winner and a colt all of which points away from Midday though her record is such that she cannot be dismissed. Her adjusted RPR is 1lb ahead of Await The Dawn so, although he also has sound claims, at odds-on I will pass. I have this irksome loyalty to Roderic O'Connor solely because he in my TTTF team and I backed him to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. Looking at the performances of Ballydoyle's 3-year olds in this race over the recent times suggests he ain't going to win. If I was having a bet though it would be a small wager on Roderic on the nose!
I will continue to follow Our Boy Jack for the time being so he is my selection for the Nursery (4:15pm)
I have no selection for the concluding handicap.
Others in the Notebook who are running today are:
Doc Hay - 3:15 Carlisle.
Sansili - 6:40 Hereford - winning system qualifier (follow until beaten)
Wychwoods Mist - 8:10 Hereford - system qualifier; pulled up last time.
Midnight Feast - 7:00 Folkestone - needs to learn to settle.
Midsummer Sun - 3:30 Nottingham - one more chance. Highly reagrded.
That's it folks.
Good luck.
Rm(M)
Tuesday 16 August 2011
One more sleep to York (if time to sleep)....
Dear All
Timekeeping has never been my forte...
I have unearthed a little gem of a system, Like most systems it is based upon sound data and not on guesswork... I do not have the appropriate software so cannot properly track its profitability historically. I have no doubt about the success of its strike rate but successful strike rates don't necessarily make money...
Juveniles on second start in maidens in circumstances where they are the only horse in the race to have achieved RPR of 80 or more on debut and on only start. Those achieving the 80+ landmark on a start subsequent to debut do not qualify!
I will try to keep you informed of qualifiers on a daily basis... Prices are sometimes too short but occasionally, particularly where a less fashionable stable is involved, there is real value. I might need to tweak the system to increase the profit angle...
TTTF not reaching last year's heights. Havant and Casamento have not contributed, Goldikova has ensured a couple of reverses; Blue Bunting and So You Think were not on my radar - Canford retired... back to drawing board over jumps...
Mystified by over reaction to Grand National deaths earlier this year. I am convinced that the number of runners, the quality of the field (so leniency of the handicapper) and the downsizing of the fences (so easier for good horses in a big field to travel faster!) It's just lip service dressed up as concern for welfare of horses... danger that Gold Cup winners will be winning National in next 5 years..
So which horses have caught my eye recently...
FALLEN FOR YOU - winner of a tasty Newmarket maiden on July course; achieved the important 80+ RPR number, on debut; started favourite, entered in G1 contest in Autumn, stable knows a Guineas horse when it has one...
LEARN - Ballydoyle inmate; won on 3rd start; O'Brien is a master of bringing his runners along slowly - not scared to lose; achieved 80+ on all 3 starts and 93 when winning latest; a son of Galileo out of a Spinning World mare...
NASRI - Ayr Gold Cup winner in waiting. Stays 7 furlongs well (need a stayer in top handicap sprints); competitive in big-field handicaps and trained by the sprint master - Dandy Nicholls...
GASSIN GOLF - trained by the Master of Heath House; stoutly bred (as so many of his are) a son of Montjeu out of an Hernando mare. Jump boys will be salivating... impressive last night off modest pace at Kempton Park on the all-weather...
COMEHOMEQUIETLY - looked a promising individual when winning a Novice Chase at Worcester this evening; jumping boldly at times but novicey at others - room for improvement but big engine; from a very unfashionable, small yard might just surprise and run up a sequence...
Will post York thoughts shortly...
KR
Rm (Mark)
Timekeeping has never been my forte...
I have unearthed a little gem of a system, Like most systems it is based upon sound data and not on guesswork... I do not have the appropriate software so cannot properly track its profitability historically. I have no doubt about the success of its strike rate but successful strike rates don't necessarily make money...
Juveniles on second start in maidens in circumstances where they are the only horse in the race to have achieved RPR of 80 or more on debut and on only start. Those achieving the 80+ landmark on a start subsequent to debut do not qualify!
I will try to keep you informed of qualifiers on a daily basis... Prices are sometimes too short but occasionally, particularly where a less fashionable stable is involved, there is real value. I might need to tweak the system to increase the profit angle...
TTTF not reaching last year's heights. Havant and Casamento have not contributed, Goldikova has ensured a couple of reverses; Blue Bunting and So You Think were not on my radar - Canford retired... back to drawing board over jumps...
Mystified by over reaction to Grand National deaths earlier this year. I am convinced that the number of runners, the quality of the field (so leniency of the handicapper) and the downsizing of the fences (so easier for good horses in a big field to travel faster!) It's just lip service dressed up as concern for welfare of horses... danger that Gold Cup winners will be winning National in next 5 years..
So which horses have caught my eye recently...
FALLEN FOR YOU - winner of a tasty Newmarket maiden on July course; achieved the important 80+ RPR number, on debut; started favourite, entered in G1 contest in Autumn, stable knows a Guineas horse when it has one...
LEARN - Ballydoyle inmate; won on 3rd start; O'Brien is a master of bringing his runners along slowly - not scared to lose; achieved 80+ on all 3 starts and 93 when winning latest; a son of Galileo out of a Spinning World mare...
NASRI - Ayr Gold Cup winner in waiting. Stays 7 furlongs well (need a stayer in top handicap sprints); competitive in big-field handicaps and trained by the sprint master - Dandy Nicholls...
GASSIN GOLF - trained by the Master of Heath House; stoutly bred (as so many of his are) a son of Montjeu out of an Hernando mare. Jump boys will be salivating... impressive last night off modest pace at Kempton Park on the all-weather...
COMEHOMEQUIETLY - looked a promising individual when winning a Novice Chase at Worcester this evening; jumping boldly at times but novicey at others - room for improvement but big engine; from a very unfashionable, small yard might just surprise and run up a sequence...
Will post York thoughts shortly...
KR
Rm (Mark)
Sunday 14 August 2011
Refreshed...
Dear All
Protracted break but now back in the saddle. Plans afoot to broaden content and first thoughts will follow later today.
I have been having a very successful time backing winners in juvenile maidens; prices hugely a bit tight but many races so uncompetitive that experience, breeding and the right stable reveal so much. The key though is Racing Post Ratings - more on this later along with update on TTTF teams and 5 to follow from recent course activity.
York content all week...
KR
Rm (Mark)
Protracted break but now back in the saddle. Plans afoot to broaden content and first thoughts will follow later today.
I have been having a very successful time backing winners in juvenile maidens; prices hugely a bit tight but many races so uncompetitive that experience, breeding and the right stable reveal so much. The key though is Racing Post Ratings - more on this later along with update on TTTF teams and 5 to follow from recent course activity.
York content all week...
KR
Rm (Mark)
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