Dear All
The weights for the always riveting handicaps are revealed tomorrow and then we can revisit yesterday's thoughts and load the revolver for the always tricky and equally competitive 3 mile and 2 mile 5 handicap chases on the first day's competition.
Day 2...
Beginning with the gruelling 4-mile novice championship, the National Hunt Chase for Amateur Riders.
Tea For Three and Fists of Fury have been well supported in this market. I prefer the former though worry about the ground.
My other is Allee Garde who might give King Willie of Mullins yet another opportunity to chalk up an early lead for the trainers' title; his 3rd placing in the Fort Leney (Chicago Grey ran there before winning this last year) in December behind Last Instalment and First Lieutenant is the best piece of form in the race...
The Neptune is next and is usually one of the highlights of the four days. This year's contest is positively heaving with possibilities. I am quite sweet on Monksland who I take to emulate his stable's Nicanor (conqueror of the mighty warrior Denman in 2007) by winning against a strong field. I'm sure that Darlan will run in the Supreme but should run here.
The RSA Chase is a ferociously competitive event and so often bottoms its participants in future seasons. There are so many examples - Cooldine for instance didn't go on and it appears to have left its mark on last year's winner Boston's Angel also and others. It is usually (not always, of course) won by an uncomplicated street fighter and not the flashy Florida Pearl types (he, of course, bucked the trend in a small field of also rans seemingly a lifetime ago), So it's Join Together for me - Ruby up will swing it definitely...
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is there for the taking by the reigning champion Sizing Europe but have a little tickle on I'm So Lucky to place as this race seems likely to cut up badly.
The Coral Cup is a minefield but at this stage I take Gordon Elliot's Toner d'Oudaries to win...
I have backed Red Inca thus far in the Fred Winter but will definitely have a second wager nearer the time...
Finally, the Champion Bumper is Ireland's Moscow Mannon versus England's Royal Guardsman with Horatio Hornblower a lively outsider.
Good luck - back soon with the final two days.
It is folly to oppose King Willie in the leading trainer stakes and I'm not going to but Alan King has a serious arsenal of ammunition to fire across his boughs and is worth a punt at big odds for a top trainer...
Happy punting.
Rm(Mark)
Wednesday 29 February 2012
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Cheltenham 2012: Day One
Dear All
Will no doubt update these at a later date but these are Racehorsingman's selections at this moment in time; some have been backed, some backed and laid; some missed opportunities and others just downright optimistic...
Day 1:
SUPREME - I have a few fingers in a few pies here. The uncertainty regarding which Henderson inmate runs where. I still think Darlan needs further - Simonsig should run here. The old adage of following the second Irish horse in the betting - so successful over recent years - will lead you to Steps To Freedom - as things stand! Keep and eye out for Midnight Game superseding the Harrington beast.
ARKLE - Sprinter Sacre is too short having not won a race at Cheltenham or even finished 2nd so we have to look elsewhere. Have one of yuor biggest each way bets on Cue Card who will place and might win.
JLT - too early to be dogmatic but I like Quantitativeeasing or QE as Dessie Scahill prefers... and Lie Forrit at a big price.
CHAMPION HURDLE - probably Hurricane Fly but Oscars Well to be closer and Binocular a certainty each way without the favourite or probably even with..! looked back to his best at Wincanton...
CROSS COUNTRY - have backed Scotsirish at 5s but Uncle Junior each way is almost as good a bet as Cue Card
MARES' HURDLE - I can't put up Quevega; she's much too short. If she doesn't win she will be hellishly close to the one that does. I suggest, somewhat tentatively, Kentford Grey Lady...
CENTENARY HANDICAP CHASE - no idea at the moment. I expect Venetia has something up her sleeve as will the Pipes. Maybe Quincey Des Pictons at a reasonable price.
Back tomorrow with my thoughts for the second day...
Rm(Mark)
Will no doubt update these at a later date but these are Racehorsingman's selections at this moment in time; some have been backed, some backed and laid; some missed opportunities and others just downright optimistic...
Day 1:
SUPREME - I have a few fingers in a few pies here. The uncertainty regarding which Henderson inmate runs where. I still think Darlan needs further - Simonsig should run here. The old adage of following the second Irish horse in the betting - so successful over recent years - will lead you to Steps To Freedom - as things stand! Keep and eye out for Midnight Game superseding the Harrington beast.
ARKLE - Sprinter Sacre is too short having not won a race at Cheltenham or even finished 2nd so we have to look elsewhere. Have one of yuor biggest each way bets on Cue Card who will place and might win.
JLT - too early to be dogmatic but I like Quantitativeeasing or QE as Dessie Scahill prefers... and Lie Forrit at a big price.
CHAMPION HURDLE - probably Hurricane Fly but Oscars Well to be closer and Binocular a certainty each way without the favourite or probably even with..! looked back to his best at Wincanton...
CROSS COUNTRY - have backed Scotsirish at 5s but Uncle Junior each way is almost as good a bet as Cue Card
MARES' HURDLE - I can't put up Quevega; she's much too short. If she doesn't win she will be hellishly close to the one that does. I suggest, somewhat tentatively, Kentford Grey Lady...
CENTENARY HANDICAP CHASE - no idea at the moment. I expect Venetia has something up her sleeve as will the Pipes. Maybe Quincey Des Pictons at a reasonable price.
Back tomorrow with my thoughts for the second day...
Rm(Mark)
Thursday 9 February 2012
Dear All
I couldn't help being drawn in by Paddy Power's offer of 20/1 for all of last year's Championship event winners at the Cheltenham Festival to repeat the dose on the hallowed turf over four days in March.
It was not a serious wager and, I must defend myself by stating quite clearly that I am not ordinarily befuddled by bookmaker offers. Remember! Special offers are usually to the detriment of the punter and to the benefit of Mr Turf Accountant... when a bookie promotes his wares by adding a half point to fancied runner's odds it's not because of a benevolent streak etched into said bookie's bone marrow it's because he doesn't fancy the nag but hopes you do..!
Back to the matter in hand..! This particular offer struck me as one; not gushing forth perhaps but, at least, seeping, a tad of value...
So, where might it fail! I thought it might make an interesting post to discuss the relative merits of the four musketeers!
The one I consider most vulnerable is Hurricane Fly... I have my doubts whether last year's contest was quite as good as it appeared. I'm being a little mischievous here really; fully aware that The Fly is up there with the best during the post-Istabraq years (incidentally - in Swindon where I live there is an office building badged up as Istabraq House! How quaint!) The time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was a little quicker than the Champion over the same course on the same day on the same going; Peddlers' Cross has been somewhat disappointing since bringing into question not whether the form is of any value but more that it may not have been quite as compelling as it seemed at first light!
I doubt there is anything in the likely field that will blow down the Hurricane but he may bounce (only one run in two hundred plus days)... the great unknown is Zarkandar, completely unexposed and, like the reigning champion, imbued with regal blood - and the dependably solid Oscars Well who will improve, I believe, for better ground and Cheltenham's unique configuration...
Big Bucks is next! Sacrilege I know to suggest; to even contemplate defeat for this most champion of champions - almost all of the greats are beaten eventually though! Chances are it will happen on the biggest, most theatrical of stages, in the cauldron of Prestbury Park when all present are waiting; gripped by the anticipation of history being created or by the vaguely crumpled betting voucher bearing the inscription TO WIN sat snugly alongside the words So Young as the Mullins' young pretender draws alongside the champion shortly before the final obstacle...
My reasoning is simple - there will be at least three high class animals; unexposed at the trip; challenging the reigning champion; namely Oscar Whisky (needs to prove he will stay - think he will!), the aforementioned So Young and the returning prodigal son, Mikael D'Haguenet - a former sun of March poetry! He is no longer setting wearily to the West but instead is rising imperiously again above the horizon!
Next is Long Run - last year's champion staying chaser - looks even more of a stayer this year. The mighty Kauto has outjumped the young pretender; Ruby has dazzled with his horsemanship aboard this noble warrior; the dentist has appeared toothless in comparison... despite this though it is a race for stayers; Kauto's record at Cheltenham, although splendid, is not as splendid as it is at Kempton or at Haydock... it demands much of this speedy French-bred sort. I think the Waley-Cohen's will exact their revenge on Team Ditcheat...
The most likely repeat success will, in my opinion, be that of Sizing Europe. I am happy to lay the eleven year-old Big Zeb for a place; Finian's Rainbow does not appear in love with Prestbury Park; may lack a gear when push comes to shove; the rest are just not in the same stratosphere. Any price of odds against is tremendous value; he will win..!.
So having wagered in favour of the four superstars here's my sporting alternative
Oscars Well in the Champion Hurdle
Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase
So Young in the World Hurdle
Long Run in the Gold Cup
Speak soon
Rm(Mark)
I couldn't help being drawn in by Paddy Power's offer of 20/1 for all of last year's Championship event winners at the Cheltenham Festival to repeat the dose on the hallowed turf over four days in March.
It was not a serious wager and, I must defend myself by stating quite clearly that I am not ordinarily befuddled by bookmaker offers. Remember! Special offers are usually to the detriment of the punter and to the benefit of Mr Turf Accountant... when a bookie promotes his wares by adding a half point to fancied runner's odds it's not because of a benevolent streak etched into said bookie's bone marrow it's because he doesn't fancy the nag but hopes you do..!
Back to the matter in hand..! This particular offer struck me as one; not gushing forth perhaps but, at least, seeping, a tad of value...
So, where might it fail! I thought it might make an interesting post to discuss the relative merits of the four musketeers!
The one I consider most vulnerable is Hurricane Fly... I have my doubts whether last year's contest was quite as good as it appeared. I'm being a little mischievous here really; fully aware that The Fly is up there with the best during the post-Istabraq years (incidentally - in Swindon where I live there is an office building badged up as Istabraq House! How quaint!) The time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was a little quicker than the Champion over the same course on the same day on the same going; Peddlers' Cross has been somewhat disappointing since bringing into question not whether the form is of any value but more that it may not have been quite as compelling as it seemed at first light!
I doubt there is anything in the likely field that will blow down the Hurricane but he may bounce (only one run in two hundred plus days)... the great unknown is Zarkandar, completely unexposed and, like the reigning champion, imbued with regal blood - and the dependably solid Oscars Well who will improve, I believe, for better ground and Cheltenham's unique configuration...
Big Bucks is next! Sacrilege I know to suggest; to even contemplate defeat for this most champion of champions - almost all of the greats are beaten eventually though! Chances are it will happen on the biggest, most theatrical of stages, in the cauldron of Prestbury Park when all present are waiting; gripped by the anticipation of history being created or by the vaguely crumpled betting voucher bearing the inscription TO WIN sat snugly alongside the words So Young as the Mullins' young pretender draws alongside the champion shortly before the final obstacle...
My reasoning is simple - there will be at least three high class animals; unexposed at the trip; challenging the reigning champion; namely Oscar Whisky (needs to prove he will stay - think he will!), the aforementioned So Young and the returning prodigal son, Mikael D'Haguenet - a former sun of March poetry! He is no longer setting wearily to the West but instead is rising imperiously again above the horizon!
Next is Long Run - last year's champion staying chaser - looks even more of a stayer this year. The mighty Kauto has outjumped the young pretender; Ruby has dazzled with his horsemanship aboard this noble warrior; the dentist has appeared toothless in comparison... despite this though it is a race for stayers; Kauto's record at Cheltenham, although splendid, is not as splendid as it is at Kempton or at Haydock... it demands much of this speedy French-bred sort. I think the Waley-Cohen's will exact their revenge on Team Ditcheat...
The most likely repeat success will, in my opinion, be that of Sizing Europe. I am happy to lay the eleven year-old Big Zeb for a place; Finian's Rainbow does not appear in love with Prestbury Park; may lack a gear when push comes to shove; the rest are just not in the same stratosphere. Any price of odds against is tremendous value; he will win..!.
So having wagered in favour of the four superstars here's my sporting alternative
Oscars Well in the Champion Hurdle
Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase
So Young in the World Hurdle
Long Run in the Gold Cup
Speak soon
Rm(Mark)
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