Now the dust has settled; the clocks have ticked forward and we sit in that dead period between Cheltenham's undulating terrain and Liverpool's sharp, flat configuration it is time to unearth six pearls whose wisdom will secure us greater wealth for future days,,,
For Martin Keighley to give Champion Court its hurdle debut in a Grade 2 novice at Cheltenham's real Trials meeting in November is telling you something especially when the market spoke in its favour, the bay gelding cost £130k and was appeared tuned to the minute in the paddock...
The Albert Bartlett looked a very special race this year and will produce a host of future chasing winners. One cloud is the fear that a competitive contest up the Prestbury Hill might have left its mark!
Definity definitely ran in the wrong race. He probably should have been taking on Bensalem et al over three miles rather than the shorter trip of the Centenary race; staying on all too late at the business end! The money was significant; he remains lightly raced, unexposed and classy at this level just below the top flight!
Go All The Way has two excellent pieces of bumper form; an impressive second placing behind Sir Willie's Bishopsfurze at the Punchestown Festival when with John Kiely then a staying on 4th in the Championship event at the Festival when his new trainer's string looked out of form. A certain future winner over much further than this....
Megastar is a Liverpool horse (won last year's bumper there in April), a three miler and a chaser. We haven't seen the best of him yet by some way. Year-in and year-out the Festival Bumper races at Cheltenham and Liverpool and the intermediate Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham produce winner after winner. Cheltenham, at any time of year, produces robust, reliable form due to the going conditions, the big(gish) fields, the generous pace and quality of the opposition...
Mossley was my fancy for the Albert Bartlett. He beat a good field and posted a top class Racing Post Rating at the same time when outstaying his rivals that day at Cheltenham in December. The drop back in trip and the horrible ground put paid to his chances at Warwick next time but the word from the yard was positive. Next year's RSA Chase winner I hear you say! Tough and tenacious for sure; bred to stay - a son of the prodigious Old Vic out of an Irish River mare - if NH can keep him sound, he and Michael Buckley may well have at least two bright stars with which to go to war next season...
Last, but by no means least, is the hugely promising Rubi Light. Racing prominently from the outset and with the ground apparently an unknown factor, Robert Hennessy's Network gelding is surely a star of the future. Punters often get bogged down with Irish-trained horses and their form on muddy ground; so many of them improve for the better ground over here; and remember Rubi wasn't the only offspring of Network to run well at the Festival on the prevailing fastish ground.
So we have these six plus Sprinter Sacre (a son of Network also) and First Lieutenant and the champions Long Run, Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks (Chasing next season please!) and Sizing Europe and you have next year's ten to follow with two reserves.
On Sunday, I spent the afternoon flicking between Betfair, Oddschecker, (RUK on RPTV) and ATR on the telly! It occurred to me as I watched the pink, blue and white squares interchange on the odds comparison site that there was a potentially interesting angle. Perhaps millions of punters do it day in and day out but the penny only dropped in my purse at that moment! I noted horses at the top of the market flashing pink amongst a sea of blue and vice-versa a strip of blue further down the show amongst a shock of pink. A couple of hours later I had seen Symphonist, Empowering and January win handsomely and a number of other short-priced types fall by the wayside as the market predicted. This is something to monitor more closely I thought! So I will!
I have a created an extensive list of Alert horses (recorded on GG.com) all compiled from various media and updated daily. I think it's time I shared some of these with you. Upham Atom came from a reliable system (produces lots of winners; must check if profitable - suspect it is!) on Sunday. The day job has intervened thus far this week! Watch this space!
Oh and don't forget you heard it here about young Jeremiah McGrath (of course you might have heard it somewhere else as well!) who won on a chance ride (Line Freedom) at Newbury after Mr Geraghty took a tumble from Kerada in an earlier race... ignoring the furore of whether a conditional, claiming 7lbs, should replace an established top jock, this is a boy going places!
Back soon!
Rm (Mark)
Thursday 31 March 2011
Sunday 27 March 2011
Refreshed...
Phew! The anticipation itself is exhausting. Why do we devote so much of the racing year to the Cheltenham Festival? I feel so flat for at least 10 days afterwards... hence the absence! Felt like I had just completed a deep hock-heavy Eider!
Nevertheless, we can't ignore it! I have been trawling through the results to find at least six future winning prospects. To add to these I must mention Sprinter Sacre and First Lieutenant. To this eye, the latter is a future potential Gold Cup winner; oozing class like the same connections' War of Attrition. I hope a softly, softly approach is taken with him - first step should be the Arkle where he may well meet Nicky Henderson's gorgeous Supreme 3rd. What a prospect! No doubt Mr Nicholls and others will have a French import or two up their sleeves! Don't back them now though - it's a long way off. Strictly NR/NB!
I suspect the Neptune was a really good renewal and countless winners will spring from the pages. So Young did very well considering his lack of experience and we will never be absolutely sure how Oscars Well's mistake at the last affected the final result!
Enough for now - the six will follow shortly along with some thoughts on today's racing - how my Alert horses ran and how blue and pink have made me think!
Rm (Mark)
Nevertheless, we can't ignore it! I have been trawling through the results to find at least six future winning prospects. To add to these I must mention Sprinter Sacre and First Lieutenant. To this eye, the latter is a future potential Gold Cup winner; oozing class like the same connections' War of Attrition. I hope a softly, softly approach is taken with him - first step should be the Arkle where he may well meet Nicky Henderson's gorgeous Supreme 3rd. What a prospect! No doubt Mr Nicholls and others will have a French import or two up their sleeves! Don't back them now though - it's a long way off. Strictly NR/NB!
I suspect the Neptune was a really good renewal and countless winners will spring from the pages. So Young did very well considering his lack of experience and we will never be absolutely sure how Oscars Well's mistake at the last affected the final result!
Enough for now - the six will follow shortly along with some thoughts on today's racing - how my Alert horses ran and how blue and pink have made me think!
Rm (Mark)
Friday 11 March 2011
Cheltenham Nap...
I am convinced that neither Master Minded nor Big Zeb will win the Champion Chase. Part-hunch, part form study, I might even lay MM for a place.
One of the most exuberant of steeplechasers, he looks to me like a horse with something hurting him; only sheer class getting him home in recent starts. He will be taken on next Wednesday by a good field and once challenged at the business end I predict he will crack.
Big Zeb is top class but 10 years old now; had a hard race last time and his form suggests he needs to be fresh to perform at his best. He may not have fully recovered from his ultimately losing battle with Golden Silver. Expect the defending champion to be put under so much pressure that his once frail jumping might resurface.
I believe that, in reverse order, the first 3 home will be Captain Cee Bee then Somersby all led a merry dance by the Cheltenham specialist, Sizing Europe. The confidence out of the De Bromhead yard is infectious and the trends buffs will be eulogising about the record of Arkle winners in the big one.
It's the course that is the key here and the drying ground will suit also. Whereas the prevailing going will suit Sizing it is likely to do anything but for Master Willie's Golden Silver who also appears to spit out his dummy when he arrives to race on Cheltenham's hallowed though eccentric configuration. He is a lay.
Sizing's winless last 4 starts, stretching back to last year's Arkle, is not the standard precursor to victory in this Championship contest but a return to top form is keenly anticipated and expected.
Rm (Mark)
One of the most exuberant of steeplechasers, he looks to me like a horse with something hurting him; only sheer class getting him home in recent starts. He will be taken on next Wednesday by a good field and once challenged at the business end I predict he will crack.
Big Zeb is top class but 10 years old now; had a hard race last time and his form suggests he needs to be fresh to perform at his best. He may not have fully recovered from his ultimately losing battle with Golden Silver. Expect the defending champion to be put under so much pressure that his once frail jumping might resurface.
I believe that, in reverse order, the first 3 home will be Captain Cee Bee then Somersby all led a merry dance by the Cheltenham specialist, Sizing Europe. The confidence out of the De Bromhead yard is infectious and the trends buffs will be eulogising about the record of Arkle winners in the big one.
It's the course that is the key here and the drying ground will suit also. Whereas the prevailing going will suit Sizing it is likely to do anything but for Master Willie's Golden Silver who also appears to spit out his dummy when he arrives to race on Cheltenham's hallowed though eccentric configuration. He is a lay.
Sizing's winless last 4 starts, stretching back to last year's Arkle, is not the standard precursor to victory in this Championship contest but a return to top form is keenly anticipated and expected.
Rm (Mark)
Thursday 10 March 2011
The roar is on the horizon...
I will be there on Tuesday to listen to the roar as the racing brethren holds its breath in anticipation of day one of the greatest show on earth. If you haven't been then please do so. It is simply stunning! The gathering racehorses framed against the glorious backdrop of Cleeve Hill. Tres magnifique!
Which brings me nicely onto the first race of the first day - the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the French-bred Spirit Son is, at this stage, my selection - backed many weeks ago at 20/1 and yet to be laid off! I was at the Newbury Festival Preview last night and Tom Symonds (NH's Assistant) spoke eloquently, as ever. He started by saying Barry had a difficult choice but left us all in no doubt which was the yard's first choice. I expect Sprinter Sacre to be prominent in the Arkle betting a year on! Back Spirit Son with Paddy Power - Cue Card concession has to be of interest.
Cue Card is obviously a major threat. He has to go close; his Cheltenham record alone sets him apart. I think he will be done for toe when it matters. Don't underestimate Magen's Star if she turns up here. Lady weight concession; it's the ground which might be important though I have lost count of the number of Irish horses to have improved for better ground at the Festival (stand up Willie Mullins and take a bow!) though perhaps not this one!
Talking of Master Willie (1980 Derby nearly man), please do not get sucked into the So Young gamble. You have missed the price! The balance of his form leaves him well adrift of the main protagonists. Not saying it won't win but at that price it can go unbacked.
The Arkle is a disappointing race this year. Given a right-handed track, I am all over Captain Chris but I doubt he will stand his ground. Medermit has questions to answer for me - one refusal plus no Cheltenham victory despite several attempts scream 3/1 is too short. I took 14s and laid at 6.6 so happy with that position.
Liked Dan Breen but he smacks a bit of So Young without the hyperbole... word is D Pipe is excited about him but form's not quite of the right vintage. A place perhaps though! I like Realt Dubh increasingly. Graded race form; though course an unknown and, to some degree, the going. I just can't get a handle on Ghizao but my incompetence is not the horse's fault! He's in the Possibly category.
The William Hill; sorry Stewart Family HC (I've gone all Whitbread again!) next - as a famous couch would say I could not back Bensalem with counterfeit! Talented yes; lucky to be alive yes, worthy favourite perhaps but in this oh so competitve heat his jumping frailties make the price a heinous crime. Money where mouth is: Sunnyhillboy and Quantitativeeasing (hope you are reading this Slug in your favourite resting place at the top of the hill in front of the stands). Mr Scahill (have I spelt that correctly!) you are a God!
The Cross Country during the Festival is the domain of the regular and you cannot get more regular than last year's winner so it's A New Story for me! Enda's creatures not quite on their game and Maljimar always manages to spoil his ballot paper!
As she's done it before, it's tempting to back Quevega to again tut at anyone who doubts she can have a lifetime away from the track then return to win like Pegasus. It looks a decent field in opposition and she's no certainty - too short for me! Probably won't play!
The Centenary race (used to be the Jewson before the Jewson jocked itself off to ride another race). No idea at the moment. Ask me on Monday evening!
And so to Tuesday's crowning glory - The Champion Hurdle - not so much a spectacle more a fully qualified opthalmist optician. Binocular (appropriate next word) - "deja vu" all over again according to Tom - has a favourite's chance (or will he be!), Peddler's - working well but will he be quick enough (my very lumpy ante-post wager not yet laid off, hopes so! Menorah ( I keep underestimating him!) and Hurricane Fly (I love him) but will he act at Prestbury? Will he sulk if he cannot beat Solwhit? Is his classic winning sire destined never to father one first past the lollipop at the Festival? I am undecided. If he does win I hope the bookies will let me have a bet after the event on Thousand Stars to be placed - not too far behind in Irish equivalent).
Then there's the enigma that is Khyber Kim ( not the winner but might shake them up a tad!). Oscar Whisky cannot win according to Tom (must be a son of Accordion) and Mille Chief is up against it but all class! Having backed Peddler's early doors at fancy prices I may stick with him but it's all too close to call. I will wait for the day when I am there and the money is going down.
Incidentally, thank you to David Stevens of Corals (you know who you are) for sticking around and smiling whilst my visually-impaired pal, ably assisted by yours truly, completed our Free Bet forms last night as the room steadily emptied. Grateful thanks to Corals for this generous offer and for employing such a nice man! So who did you pick I hear you shout (not!) - my nap of the week. Tell you tomorrow.
RM (Mark)
Which brings me nicely onto the first race of the first day - the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the French-bred Spirit Son is, at this stage, my selection - backed many weeks ago at 20/1 and yet to be laid off! I was at the Newbury Festival Preview last night and Tom Symonds (NH's Assistant) spoke eloquently, as ever. He started by saying Barry had a difficult choice but left us all in no doubt which was the yard's first choice. I expect Sprinter Sacre to be prominent in the Arkle betting a year on! Back Spirit Son with Paddy Power - Cue Card concession has to be of interest.
Cue Card is obviously a major threat. He has to go close; his Cheltenham record alone sets him apart. I think he will be done for toe when it matters. Don't underestimate Magen's Star if she turns up here. Lady weight concession; it's the ground which might be important though I have lost count of the number of Irish horses to have improved for better ground at the Festival (stand up Willie Mullins and take a bow!) though perhaps not this one!
Talking of Master Willie (1980 Derby nearly man), please do not get sucked into the So Young gamble. You have missed the price! The balance of his form leaves him well adrift of the main protagonists. Not saying it won't win but at that price it can go unbacked.
The Arkle is a disappointing race this year. Given a right-handed track, I am all over Captain Chris but I doubt he will stand his ground. Medermit has questions to answer for me - one refusal plus no Cheltenham victory despite several attempts scream 3/1 is too short. I took 14s and laid at 6.6 so happy with that position.
Liked Dan Breen but he smacks a bit of So Young without the hyperbole... word is D Pipe is excited about him but form's not quite of the right vintage. A place perhaps though! I like Realt Dubh increasingly. Graded race form; though course an unknown and, to some degree, the going. I just can't get a handle on Ghizao but my incompetence is not the horse's fault! He's in the Possibly category.
The William Hill; sorry Stewart Family HC (I've gone all Whitbread again!) next - as a famous couch would say I could not back Bensalem with counterfeit! Talented yes; lucky to be alive yes, worthy favourite perhaps but in this oh so competitve heat his jumping frailties make the price a heinous crime. Money where mouth is: Sunnyhillboy and Quantitativeeasing (hope you are reading this Slug in your favourite resting place at the top of the hill in front of the stands). Mr Scahill (have I spelt that correctly!) you are a God!
The Cross Country during the Festival is the domain of the regular and you cannot get more regular than last year's winner so it's A New Story for me! Enda's creatures not quite on their game and Maljimar always manages to spoil his ballot paper!
As she's done it before, it's tempting to back Quevega to again tut at anyone who doubts she can have a lifetime away from the track then return to win like Pegasus. It looks a decent field in opposition and she's no certainty - too short for me! Probably won't play!
The Centenary race (used to be the Jewson before the Jewson jocked itself off to ride another race). No idea at the moment. Ask me on Monday evening!
And so to Tuesday's crowning glory - The Champion Hurdle - not so much a spectacle more a fully qualified opthalmist optician. Binocular (appropriate next word) - "deja vu" all over again according to Tom - has a favourite's chance (or will he be!), Peddler's - working well but will he be quick enough (my very lumpy ante-post wager not yet laid off, hopes so! Menorah ( I keep underestimating him!) and Hurricane Fly (I love him) but will he act at Prestbury? Will he sulk if he cannot beat Solwhit? Is his classic winning sire destined never to father one first past the lollipop at the Festival? I am undecided. If he does win I hope the bookies will let me have a bet after the event on Thousand Stars to be placed - not too far behind in Irish equivalent).
Then there's the enigma that is Khyber Kim ( not the winner but might shake them up a tad!). Oscar Whisky cannot win according to Tom (must be a son of Accordion) and Mille Chief is up against it but all class! Having backed Peddler's early doors at fancy prices I may stick with him but it's all too close to call. I will wait for the day when I am there and the money is going down.
Incidentally, thank you to David Stevens of Corals (you know who you are) for sticking around and smiling whilst my visually-impaired pal, ably assisted by yours truly, completed our Free Bet forms last night as the room steadily emptied. Grateful thanks to Corals for this generous offer and for employing such a nice man! So who did you pick I hear you shout (not!) - my nap of the week. Tell you tomorrow.
RM (Mark)
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