Dear All
This week has seen the passing of three notable influences on those of who love our racing (both codes) and popular music...
I never met Michael Jarvis nor did I know anyone who knew him but the impression given is that here was not only a master trainer of horses but a true gentleman; a kind, thoughtful man and loyal employer. Testament to this is his partnership over three decades and more with only three stable jockeys. Messrs. Durr, Raymond and Robinson all of which I suspect improved their art of race-riding by an association with Mr Jarvis.
Many column inches have been written over countless years about Ginger McCain. Surely there is a film producer out there who can see the viability of transferring to the silver screen the legend of a man who sold second-hand cars; the man he met whilst driving a taxi to make ends meet and the horse (MURDER backwards!) with questionable feet who was not talented enough on the Flat to win a seller outright...
It all could have been so different had Crisp (an equine star of the time), conceding lumps of weight, managed to get there on the line in what must be one of the most played videos on BBC Television...
Cantankerous; curmudgeonly and opinionated are all words I have heard to describe Mr McCain this week but he was a breath of fresh air whenever interviewed; thought-provoking and honest...
RIP Gentlemen... you will be missed
Michael Stipe is one of my all-time heroes and REM's music will stand the test of time. I was sad to hear last week's announcement of the end of this notable era lasting 31 years taking this combo out of Athens, Georgia from college radio darlings to a band who scaled the heights. Gems such as Perfect Circle, Losing My Religion, Electrolyte, Find The River - the list is endless - and classic albums like Murmur, Document, Reckoning, Green, Automatic For The People and Out of Time and the underrated Monster will reside in the music collections of its adoring fans for ever and a day...
I heard someone say that they had heard or REM's demise in an Indian Restaurant and promptly fainted whist eating... "...that's me in the Korma..."
REM didn't mean Relentlessly Excellent Music but it might have done!
Back to the main theme of this missive then...
No real observations today.
I am keen to follow the Non-Runner angle I first mentioned a couple of weeks ago but without the software it is a laborious task...I will continue to monitor its performance...
Happy punting...
Rm(M)
Sunday 25 September 2011
Saturday 10 September 2011
Non-Runner is a Runner...
Dear All...
There is one qualifier today - Quail's Hollow in the 4:35 at Goodwood; non-runner at Doncaster yesterday...
The week is ending badly... first thing this morning; purely on hunch and whatever else governs these thoughts, I was going to back Trumpet Major (earlier in season I recalled being told this was Hannon's best juvenile!) and then was romantically drawn to Masked Marvel (Gosden has had only three previous runners in the race apparently and all had won)... 12s and 8s - £5 each way double. Several expletives spring to mind with both winning impressively...I backed Seville each way 4th and Census (Ante-Post) 5th in the St.Leger.
Liked Power (didn't back it!) and my GG-Alerts had 2 qualifiers in the 3:45 at Doncaster namely Man Of Action/Eton Forever - a forecast waiting to happen! Didn't do it! Like me, you'll all have been there. Consolation is that I didn't back anything against them so no win but no lose...
Missing winners is just about the most difficult thing to stomach in this game...only collect today (following on from yesterday) was Addictive Dream (3rd in the Portland at 14s)
Ah well... Sarah will be back soon! Nice cup of tea.
Quail's Hollow and Making Eyes still to come... stay focussed and confident!
Good luck!
Rm(M)
There is one qualifier today - Quail's Hollow in the 4:35 at Goodwood; non-runner at Doncaster yesterday...
The week is ending badly... first thing this morning; purely on hunch and whatever else governs these thoughts, I was going to back Trumpet Major (earlier in season I recalled being told this was Hannon's best juvenile!) and then was romantically drawn to Masked Marvel (Gosden has had only three previous runners in the race apparently and all had won)... 12s and 8s - £5 each way double. Several expletives spring to mind with both winning impressively...I backed Seville each way 4th and Census (Ante-Post) 5th in the St.Leger.
Liked Power (didn't back it!) and my GG-Alerts had 2 qualifiers in the 3:45 at Doncaster namely Man Of Action/Eton Forever - a forecast waiting to happen! Didn't do it! Like me, you'll all have been there. Consolation is that I didn't back anything against them so no win but no lose...
Missing winners is just about the most difficult thing to stomach in this game...only collect today (following on from yesterday) was Addictive Dream (3rd in the Portland at 14s)
Ah well... Sarah will be back soon! Nice cup of tea.
Quail's Hollow and Making Eyes still to come... stay focussed and confident!
Good luck!
Rm(M)
Friday 9 September 2011
Opinion-at.ed...
Dear All...
Well what a rubbish day that was..!
The majority of the various angles I am so enthusiastic about crashed and burned. As was once famously said (forgotten by whom!) our equine heroes are only human! Sometimes one gets it wrong; sometimes events conspire against you; sometimes someone gets it wrong - a smidgen of all of these happened today...
One positive outcome! The new Non-Runners angle was done no harm by Stones Peak's 2nd placing at Down Royal at a tasty 12-1 and Hyperlink performed well, although ultimately without success, up at Chester. Let's stick with this. I will let you know of any qualifiers in advance of flagfall tomorrow.
I backed Requinto in the Nunthorpe. No show there but three weeks later he pulls out all the stops to win, quite takingly, in the Flying Childers. The Irish are on fire this week - bear that in mind for tomorrow.
Precision Break found all the trouble going in the Mallard but I still wonder if he was finding enough at the business end to have troubled the winner... Old Hundred won cosily but where did that come from...
Saddler's Rock is on my GG-Alerts; the only one in the race, but logic dictated the hat-trick seeking Opinion Poll would win the Doncaster Cup. Some feel Frankie didn't see it out but the horse finished very tired and may well have been beaten by the better horse...John Oxx's progressive stayer was entered in this weekend's Irish St Leger. He is very much the new kid on the block!
I nearly put up Lyric of Light this morning but hesitated for a number of reasons. Frankie's record on Godolphin 2 and 3 year old, last time out winners at this meeting have an outstanding record. I felt she had a similar chance to the warm-ish favourite, Fallen For You but was several times the odds. She might be useful...
The least said about Kanaf the better...
Beaten Up was a System Qualifier but overlooked in favour of Dumbarton - perhaps mesmerised by the Scottish Football Club nomenclature like Dunfermline, Cowdenbeath or Montrose; trailed in last something clearly amiss...
Must do better...and I will!
Back soon.
Rm(M)
Well what a rubbish day that was..!
The majority of the various angles I am so enthusiastic about crashed and burned. As was once famously said (forgotten by whom!) our equine heroes are only human! Sometimes one gets it wrong; sometimes events conspire against you; sometimes someone gets it wrong - a smidgen of all of these happened today...
One positive outcome! The new Non-Runners angle was done no harm by Stones Peak's 2nd placing at Down Royal at a tasty 12-1 and Hyperlink performed well, although ultimately without success, up at Chester. Let's stick with this. I will let you know of any qualifiers in advance of flagfall tomorrow.
I backed Requinto in the Nunthorpe. No show there but three weeks later he pulls out all the stops to win, quite takingly, in the Flying Childers. The Irish are on fire this week - bear that in mind for tomorrow.
Precision Break found all the trouble going in the Mallard but I still wonder if he was finding enough at the business end to have troubled the winner... Old Hundred won cosily but where did that come from...
Saddler's Rock is on my GG-Alerts; the only one in the race, but logic dictated the hat-trick seeking Opinion Poll would win the Doncaster Cup. Some feel Frankie didn't see it out but the horse finished very tired and may well have been beaten by the better horse...John Oxx's progressive stayer was entered in this weekend's Irish St Leger. He is very much the new kid on the block!
I nearly put up Lyric of Light this morning but hesitated for a number of reasons. Frankie's record on Godolphin 2 and 3 year old, last time out winners at this meeting have an outstanding record. I felt she had a similar chance to the warm-ish favourite, Fallen For You but was several times the odds. She might be useful...
The least said about Kanaf the better...
Beaten Up was a System Qualifier but overlooked in favour of Dumbarton - perhaps mesmerised by the Scottish Football Club nomenclature like Dunfermline, Cowdenbeath or Montrose; trailed in last something clearly amiss...
Must do better...and I will!
Back soon.
Rm(M)
That Friday Feeling...
Dear All
Getting very excited about this new Non-Runner angle although currently the sample is so small as to make statisticians scoff at my naivete...
Nevertheless, Climaxfortackle finished 2nd at the whopping price of 20s in a contest at Epsom having been scratched from a race at Doncaster the day before. This performance follows on from Humidor's win at Doncaster on Wednesday having been declared a non-runner at Leicester the previous day.
Remember this is the rule. Follow those who appear the day after having been declared a non-runner the previous day... I will report tomorrow on any qualifiers... once we have a reasonable sample we can go to war!
So, onto the Because Bets: These are detailed below...
Bet 1 - My Propellor (13:25 Doncaster) - BECAUSE it fits all the positive trends and won its maiden by 17-lengths; a factor I especially follow (winners of contests by 5-lengths or more are System Qualifiers for me...
Bet 2 - Precision Break (13:55 Doncaster) - BECAUSE Spencer rides for Simcock. Backing them blind at the moment.
Bet 3 - Opinion Poll (14:25) - BECAUSE of rock solid statistics including horse and jockey. Only Blue Bajan and Bergo seen to offer any sort of threat.
Bet 4 - Kanaf (16:10) - BECAUSE I committed to backing this one next time; have a thing about any horse finishing 5th in a Heritage Handicap...a saver on Fathsta - Simcock/Spencer and the good doctor's only runner in South Yorkshire today on a day when his beloved Chester features a number of his stable...
Bet 5 - Dumbarton (16:40)- BECAUSE I am told September is Sir Michael's month and his unexposed classic generation competitors are the ones to be with.
There we go - do what you will with those five.
Be lucky!
Rm(M)
Getting very excited about this new Non-Runner angle although currently the sample is so small as to make statisticians scoff at my naivete...
Nevertheless, Climaxfortackle finished 2nd at the whopping price of 20s in a contest at Epsom having been scratched from a race at Doncaster the day before. This performance follows on from Humidor's win at Doncaster on Wednesday having been declared a non-runner at Leicester the previous day.
Remember this is the rule. Follow those who appear the day after having been declared a non-runner the previous day... I will report tomorrow on any qualifiers... once we have a reasonable sample we can go to war!
So, onto the Because Bets: These are detailed below...
Bet 1 - My Propellor (13:25 Doncaster) - BECAUSE it fits all the positive trends and won its maiden by 17-lengths; a factor I especially follow (winners of contests by 5-lengths or more are System Qualifiers for me...
Bet 2 - Precision Break (13:55 Doncaster) - BECAUSE Spencer rides for Simcock. Backing them blind at the moment.
Bet 3 - Opinion Poll (14:25) - BECAUSE of rock solid statistics including horse and jockey. Only Blue Bajan and Bergo seen to offer any sort of threat.
Bet 4 - Kanaf (16:10) - BECAUSE I committed to backing this one next time; have a thing about any horse finishing 5th in a Heritage Handicap...a saver on Fathsta - Simcock/Spencer and the good doctor's only runner in South Yorkshire today on a day when his beloved Chester features a number of his stable...
Bet 5 - Dumbarton (16:40)- BECAUSE I am told September is Sir Michael's month and his unexposed classic generation competitors are the ones to be with.
There we go - do what you will with those five.
Be lucky!
Rm(M)
Thursday 8 September 2011
Frustration is Elusive...
Dear All
Delighted with the performance of Alanza in the Sceptre Stakes earlier today; she showed a terrific turn of foot and looks a filly worth keeping an eye on...
Frustrated though that I didn't put up others I fancied today... anyway must avoid the perception of aftertiming... the stage is set and I plan to introduce my new Selection Box. It's called The Because Bets... more later!
Will also report on anything that emerged from yesterday's Non-Runner Angle...
See you later.
Rm(M)
Delighted with the performance of Alanza in the Sceptre Stakes earlier today; she showed a terrific turn of foot and looks a filly worth keeping an eye on...
Frustrated though that I didn't put up others I fancied today... anyway must avoid the perception of aftertiming... the stage is set and I plan to introduce my new Selection Box. It's called The Because Bets... more later!
Will also report on anything that emerged from yesterday's Non-Runner Angle...
See you later.
Rm(M)
Wincanton beckons...
Dear All
The two cards offered by Doncaster thus far this week have been very disappointing from a punting perspective. I have seen little to whet my appetite.
I did back Fallen Idol yesterday in the 10-furlong Conditions race. I was reasonably confident without being adamant of success figuring that its uppermost position on rating and speed; its hailing from the in-form Doncaster specialist, Johnny G (and Billy B) and the absence of especially credible opposition would hold sway. The beast finished fast(ish) and late but to no avail; was even squeezed out of the places... maybe he does prefer Esher!
Today, I have gone all green; Irish Green that is and backed Alanza in the Sceptre (13:55) and included Sense of Purpose (Park Hill - 15:00) in an each way trixie with Dever Dream and Betty Fontaine - none of which are my own work!
Yesterday. I noticed something interesting. I love angles! Good old form following is fruitful and fulfilling (alliteration as well!) but sinking your gnashers into a good old fashioned angle unearthed late in the evening when the coffee is flowing, all around you are snoring and one by one friends on Facebook resort to slumber in enforced preference to social study!
Whist recording the latest batch of System Qualifiers for my GG-list (let's call them SQs) I observed that Humidor had been pulled out of a race at Leicester on Tuesday and then, the very next day, won a handicap at Donny at the juicy odds of 14s. Now the Racing Post supplies at the end of each day both an Index of Runners and an Index of Non-Runners. I am going to look at this angle and see if it creates wealth... more to follow!
Best wishes to Jimmy Derham who suffered a heavy fall at Uttoxeter yesterday. Twitter was twittering long into yesterday evening, especially Daz Jacob, keeping us all informed of Jimmy's condition. It seemed like things were improving when I signed off...fingers crossed!
Wincanton on Bonfire Night is just round the corner. Enter stage right The Slug, Slug's dad, The Snail, The Blind Man and Racehorsing Man; a motley crew indeed!
More later!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
The two cards offered by Doncaster thus far this week have been very disappointing from a punting perspective. I have seen little to whet my appetite.
I did back Fallen Idol yesterday in the 10-furlong Conditions race. I was reasonably confident without being adamant of success figuring that its uppermost position on rating and speed; its hailing from the in-form Doncaster specialist, Johnny G (and Billy B) and the absence of especially credible opposition would hold sway. The beast finished fast(ish) and late but to no avail; was even squeezed out of the places... maybe he does prefer Esher!
Today, I have gone all green; Irish Green that is and backed Alanza in the Sceptre (13:55) and included Sense of Purpose (Park Hill - 15:00) in an each way trixie with Dever Dream and Betty Fontaine - none of which are my own work!
Yesterday. I noticed something interesting. I love angles! Good old form following is fruitful and fulfilling (alliteration as well!) but sinking your gnashers into a good old fashioned angle unearthed late in the evening when the coffee is flowing, all around you are snoring and one by one friends on Facebook resort to slumber in enforced preference to social study!
Whist recording the latest batch of System Qualifiers for my GG-list (let's call them SQs) I observed that Humidor had been pulled out of a race at Leicester on Tuesday and then, the very next day, won a handicap at Donny at the juicy odds of 14s. Now the Racing Post supplies at the end of each day both an Index of Runners and an Index of Non-Runners. I am going to look at this angle and see if it creates wealth... more to follow!
Best wishes to Jimmy Derham who suffered a heavy fall at Uttoxeter yesterday. Twitter was twittering long into yesterday evening, especially Daz Jacob, keeping us all informed of Jimmy's condition. It seemed like things were improving when I signed off...fingers crossed!
Wincanton on Bonfire Night is just round the corner. Enter stage right The Slug, Slug's dad, The Snail, The Blind Man and Racehorsing Man; a motley crew indeed!
More later!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Monday 5 September 2011
Milan not Rome...
Dear All
I asked the brilliant Ben Aitken to help me examine the record in bumpers of the Coolmore National Hunt Stallion, MILAN I have a hunch this gorgeously bred colt (by Sadler's Wells out of Kithanga; a daughter of Darshaan) is going to be the next big thing following in the footsteps of such as Supreme Leader, Be My Native, Flemensfirth, Presenting, Oscar and King's Theatre.
The bare figures are this:
43 winners from 324 runners | 13% S/R | +£107.38 Betfair SP / -£17.52 Industry SP
These are not bad figures. A cursory glance reveal that it's slightly more advantageous to concentrate on Milan's UK runners (better Strike Rate and Return on Investment). If backing blind then it would appear essential to follow Betfair.
Will try and delve a little deeper into these numbers although I am conscious that the collective sample is limited. There are one or two other National Hunt stallions which interest me also.
Once again, thanks Ben.
Ben's blog - Narrowing The Field - is one of those rare nuggets that those of us who love the science of horse race analysis so exciting (yes we do!). Those stellar individuals like Nick Mordin, James Willoughby and Gavin Priestley . are of a similar ilk and a must read for students of the game...
Today, I wagered an each way treble. Circus Clown (a running on 3rd), Allterrain (a game 2nd) and Seeking Magic (well-handicapped) but not quite well enough. Look out for The former over hurdles in the Winter; staying is his game.
Slight deviation this evening. Take a look at John and Rosie's photographic imagery and Website design ideas. Well worth it!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
I asked the brilliant Ben Aitken to help me examine the record in bumpers of the Coolmore National Hunt Stallion, MILAN I have a hunch this gorgeously bred colt (by Sadler's Wells out of Kithanga; a daughter of Darshaan) is going to be the next big thing following in the footsteps of such as Supreme Leader, Be My Native, Flemensfirth, Presenting, Oscar and King's Theatre.
The bare figures are this:
43 winners from 324 runners | 13% S/R | +£107.38 Betfair SP / -£17.52 Industry SP
These are not bad figures. A cursory glance reveal that it's slightly more advantageous to concentrate on Milan's UK runners (better Strike Rate and Return on Investment). If backing blind then it would appear essential to follow Betfair.
Will try and delve a little deeper into these numbers although I am conscious that the collective sample is limited. There are one or two other National Hunt stallions which interest me also.
Once again, thanks Ben.
Ben's blog - Narrowing The Field - is one of those rare nuggets that those of us who love the science of horse race analysis so exciting (yes we do!). Those stellar individuals like Nick Mordin, James Willoughby and Gavin Priestley . are of a similar ilk and a must read for students of the game...
Today, I wagered an each way treble. Circus Clown (a running on 3rd), Allterrain (a game 2nd) and Seeking Magic (well-handicapped) but not quite well enough. Look out for The former over hurdles in the Winter; staying is his game.
Slight deviation this evening. Take a look at John and Rosie's photographic imagery and Website design ideas. Well worth it!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
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