Good afternoon.
I resisted the temptation to submit my thoughts on this weekend's fare because of the prevailing ground conditions which, so often, impact upon current form.
I was at Kempton Park yesterday for what was a good day's fare. I see that Paul Nicholls almost pulled his runners out due to the going but, although the finishers were well strung out, the placed horses didn't appear to finish that tired. I suppose the race times will tell the true story. The always significant Adonis Hurdle witnessed a fairly decent time and was won impressively by the blue-blooded Zarkandar. I hope you all got on at the 33s for the Triumph before the race, as suggested, leaving one and all in the privileged position of a very positive trading outcome this morning. I think Nicholls' comments were significant this morning and now predict that Zarkandar will be favourite for the Triumph assuming he gets there on the day.
Exciting indeed!
I backed Quinz (travelled like a dream but looked beaten when the veteran Mount Oscar loomed up in the home straight) and Bakbenscher (jumped like a dog - or at least a dog that cannot jump!) in the Racing Post Chase. I also backed Spirit De Ferbet (messed up the first and didn't go a yard thereafter) and Nicene Creed (impressive performance by the Tizzard animal Coup Royale who, I was told, looked a picture in the paddock - still didn't back it; baulked at the price!).
The opportunity to back Oscar Magic in the bumper - a newcomer from the Twiston yard and identified by the Sporting Life's daily gallops reports midweek - was spurned!
It was extraordinary seeing Companero climb over the last in yesterday's Eider. I don't think I have ever seen a horse jump a fence from a standing start before. I suggest that you leave the main protagonists (only three finished the race) well alone should any of them reppear in the next few weeks. Bottomed I should imagine!
Today's Festival suggestion is Mossley in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. How it is possible to obtain 25s is beyond me. The piece of form he showed at Cheltenham's December meeting is of the highest quality. Conceding 4lbs to Join Together (bizarrely 8/1 in the same market) is outstanding. Mossley looked highly impressive to these eyes that day; don't just believe me look at the Racing Post race analysis. His current odds appear to have been dictated by his distant 5th behind Court In Motion on desperate ground at Warwick.
From a top yard, likely to be ridden by Geraghty (Cheltenham Festival top jockey-elect by the way), top-class course and distance form and the ground will probably be perfect. Fill your boots!
One eyecatcher from yesterday - Ivor's King; crept stealthily into the bumper and ran on well. A son of the "new kid on the block" King's Theatre (sire of Cue Card) and trained by the Tizzards, he looks sure to win races perhaps on a stiffer track than Kempton and on better ground.
That's all for now. Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Rm (Mark)
Sunday 27 February 2011
Friday 25 February 2011
RACEHORSING MAN - update
I love Sandown Park! The form always seems reliable though one has to bear in mind, if following potential Cheltenham types, the impact of travelling the "wrong way round".
Understanding each horse's optimum circumstances is probably the most important aspect of picking winners/avoiding losers/making a betting profit. Nick Mordin is, in my view, the foremost exponent of this art. Please don't bet on major races without, at least, reviewing NM's copy which is regularly updated on his website. He also writes a column in the Racing Post Weekender which is also recommended.
Another Cheltenham Festival selection today - the bookies are squeezing the life out of most markets but there will be some value. Be aware of Non Runner/No Bet opportunities (regrettably does have an impact on odds available though!). Ladbrokes, Bet 365, Sporting Bet and Skybet are offering this concession for the 4 Championship races at the Festival...
Incidentally, for a bit of fun, I have placed the following 4-horse Cheltenham Festival each-way accumulator taking advantage of the NR/NB concession.
Peddlers Cross - Champion Hurdle
Somersby - Champion Chase
Big Bucks - World Hurdle
Kempes - Gold Cup
Today's more measured selection though is to take a Triumph Hurdle Betfair price on the two Paul Nicholls entries, Tonic Melysse and Zarkandar, before their UK debuts in tomorrow's Adonis Hurdle at Kempton with a view to laying when either one of them wins impressively. There is no outstanding candidate for the Triumph this year. McCoy appears to be on the more fancied, Tonic Melysse (jumps-bred) whilst Daryl Jacob is on board the flat-bred Zarkandar.
The Triumph is almost always won by a jumps-bred stayer but Cheltenham's roll of honour is littered with ex-Aga Khan types so I don't want to underestimate him!
Yes I know that Henderson has an interesting sort (perhaps two) in the contest but Geraghty has apparently chosen Celtus. Looking at his French form it screams testing conditions so I am wary.
Please read Geraghty's column on the AtTheRaces website under Features each Saturday and Paul Nicholls ongoing blog on Betfair. You will soon get a feel for their views. Henderson's Racing Post column is also recommended.
As for today, no system qualifiers but Geraghty goes to Sandown for just one ride on Giorgio Quercus and maybe the outsider of 3 whilst Henderson saddles Kid Cassidy (after the trauma of Newbury - has been taken around the paddock at Ascot so I understand) who must be a shoe-in!
I like the look of Greatrex's Rajamand in the 13:45 at Sandown. If the trauma (yes that word again!) of falling at the last on its previous two starts is not uppermost in its mind then this looks like a talented animal...
Wayne Hutchinson rides; one of the weighing room's unsung heroes.
Venetia's long term absentees must be watched today - Firedog (14:10 Warwick) and Lorient Express (14:20 Sandown). The Kings Caple magician is always a threat with these types.
Keep an eye out for the rides of Jeremiah (Jerry) McGrath who has started his career with aplomb. I met Jerry a few months ago when down at Matt Hazell's yard in Kingston Lisle. A wise head on young shoulders!
Good luck to Matt's Andrew Nick who runs in the 15:50 at Warwick; a useful sort in this grade.
Bye for now.
Rm (Mark)
Understanding each horse's optimum circumstances is probably the most important aspect of picking winners/avoiding losers/making a betting profit. Nick Mordin is, in my view, the foremost exponent of this art. Please don't bet on major races without, at least, reviewing NM's copy which is regularly updated on his website. He also writes a column in the Racing Post Weekender which is also recommended.
Another Cheltenham Festival selection today - the bookies are squeezing the life out of most markets but there will be some value. Be aware of Non Runner/No Bet opportunities (regrettably does have an impact on odds available though!). Ladbrokes, Bet 365, Sporting Bet and Skybet are offering this concession for the 4 Championship races at the Festival...
Incidentally, for a bit of fun, I have placed the following 4-horse Cheltenham Festival each-way accumulator taking advantage of the NR/NB concession.
Peddlers Cross - Champion Hurdle
Somersby - Champion Chase
Big Bucks - World Hurdle
Kempes - Gold Cup
Today's more measured selection though is to take a Triumph Hurdle Betfair price on the two Paul Nicholls entries, Tonic Melysse and Zarkandar, before their UK debuts in tomorrow's Adonis Hurdle at Kempton with a view to laying when either one of them wins impressively. There is no outstanding candidate for the Triumph this year. McCoy appears to be on the more fancied, Tonic Melysse (jumps-bred) whilst Daryl Jacob is on board the flat-bred Zarkandar.
The Triumph is almost always won by a jumps-bred stayer but Cheltenham's roll of honour is littered with ex-Aga Khan types so I don't want to underestimate him!
Yes I know that Henderson has an interesting sort (perhaps two) in the contest but Geraghty has apparently chosen Celtus. Looking at his French form it screams testing conditions so I am wary.
Please read Geraghty's column on the AtTheRaces website under Features each Saturday and Paul Nicholls ongoing blog on Betfair. You will soon get a feel for their views. Henderson's Racing Post column is also recommended.
As for today, no system qualifiers but Geraghty goes to Sandown for just one ride on Giorgio Quercus and maybe the outsider of 3 whilst Henderson saddles Kid Cassidy (after the trauma of Newbury - has been taken around the paddock at Ascot so I understand) who must be a shoe-in!
I like the look of Greatrex's Rajamand in the 13:45 at Sandown. If the trauma (yes that word again!) of falling at the last on its previous two starts is not uppermost in its mind then this looks like a talented animal...
Wayne Hutchinson rides; one of the weighing room's unsung heroes.
Venetia's long term absentees must be watched today - Firedog (14:10 Warwick) and Lorient Express (14:20 Sandown). The Kings Caple magician is always a threat with these types.
Keep an eye out for the rides of Jeremiah (Jerry) McGrath who has started his career with aplomb. I met Jerry a few months ago when down at Matt Hazell's yard in Kingston Lisle. A wise head on young shoulders!
Good luck to Matt's Andrew Nick who runs in the 15:50 at Warwick; a useful sort in this grade.
Bye for now.
Rm (Mark)
Wednesday 23 February 2011
RACEHORSING MAN - a good start...
Pleased with a solid start!
Arabella Boy beating Ballymak so finished the right way round.
Looks Like Slim - an honourable second to Moose Moran (may be better than I thought - a few weeks ago I had heard that Nicky Henderson had one better than Grandouet in his yard but had thought it was First In The Queue - maybe it was Moose Moran although didn't impress to the eye at Sandown recently; its vanquisher then has been well beaten since!)
Battle Bound - only 3rd but the Mullins bumper horses are always a threat; nevertheless they are overbet which gives us an angle!
Back soon.
Rm (Mark)
Arabella Boy beating Ballymak so finished the right way round.
Looks Like Slim - an honourable second to Moose Moran (may be better than I thought - a few weeks ago I had heard that Nicky Henderson had one better than Grandouet in his yard but had thought it was First In The Queue - maybe it was Moose Moran although didn't impress to the eye at Sandown recently; its vanquisher then has been well beaten since!)
Battle Bound - only 3rd but the Mullins bumper horses are always a threat; nevertheless they are overbet which gives us an angle!
Back soon.
Rm (Mark)
RACEHORSING MAN - welcome...
Good morning!
Down here in Somerset at the moment with the family; returning home later today. make sure you take a peek at the No.21 website here in Shepton Mallet!
As promised, a couple of interesting ones from the system I have been following for years. It produces lots of winners; arguably a fresh slant on an old idea that I originally identified through the work of Nick Mordin - he will be referenced regularly in this blog.
A couple of interesting qualifiers today.
Ballymak/Arabella Boy in the 4:15 at Fairyhouse. A reverse exacta perhaps.
Battle Bound in the bumper, the 5:20 at the same venue - the Mullins/Mullins combo always to be feared in these contests but they do invariably make the price for us.
Away from systems, I also like the look of Looks Like Slim in the 3:15 at Doncaster. Peter Naughton, a very shrewd judge, has given this one a good word in his Notebook. Maybe he will be best first time in a handicap but no great shakes in opposition today.
If, like me, time is against you on an ongoing basis, then I strongly recommend the Alerts on GG.com. The facility allows you unrestricted numbers of horses, trainers and jockeys. Each day you receive an email with the selection's intended race details (those for which it is declared only not entries). The facility also permits you to enter notes on why you are following the selection and its preferred circumstances. The only drawback (and it's a minor one!) is that it always defaults to the start after you have amended an entry. It irritates me but is not a deal breaker!
A visually impaired pal of mine, recently asked me to note two horses from the Quinn yard (had a good mention on William Hill Radio). Neither were missed; ran the same day and a nice double and two singles achieved.
Finally, the Cheltenham Festival will be upon us shortly. My first recommendation is to take on Master Minded and Big Zeb in the Champion Chase. Don't just listen to me - please read what Nick Mordin has to say on the subject!
Somersby is a solid each way wager now that Henrietta has chosen its path to glory and Sizing Europe's date with destiny is a familiar path also as many an Arkle winner has returned to win the big pot in recent years. There is no better form than previous Cheltenham Festival form when backing a horse at the next Cheltenham Festival. Both of these top class animals have top class form at the Festival and should not be missed.
Rm (Mark)
Down here in Somerset at the moment with the family; returning home later today. make sure you take a peek at the No.21 website here in Shepton Mallet!
As promised, a couple of interesting ones from the system I have been following for years. It produces lots of winners; arguably a fresh slant on an old idea that I originally identified through the work of Nick Mordin - he will be referenced regularly in this blog.
A couple of interesting qualifiers today.
Ballymak/Arabella Boy in the 4:15 at Fairyhouse. A reverse exacta perhaps.
Battle Bound in the bumper, the 5:20 at the same venue - the Mullins/Mullins combo always to be feared in these contests but they do invariably make the price for us.
Away from systems, I also like the look of Looks Like Slim in the 3:15 at Doncaster. Peter Naughton, a very shrewd judge, has given this one a good word in his Notebook. Maybe he will be best first time in a handicap but no great shakes in opposition today.
If, like me, time is against you on an ongoing basis, then I strongly recommend the Alerts on GG.com. The facility allows you unrestricted numbers of horses, trainers and jockeys. Each day you receive an email with the selection's intended race details (those for which it is declared only not entries). The facility also permits you to enter notes on why you are following the selection and its preferred circumstances. The only drawback (and it's a minor one!) is that it always defaults to the start after you have amended an entry. It irritates me but is not a deal breaker!
A visually impaired pal of mine, recently asked me to note two horses from the Quinn yard (had a good mention on William Hill Radio). Neither were missed; ran the same day and a nice double and two singles achieved.
Finally, the Cheltenham Festival will be upon us shortly. My first recommendation is to take on Master Minded and Big Zeb in the Champion Chase. Don't just listen to me - please read what Nick Mordin has to say on the subject!
Somersby is a solid each way wager now that Henrietta has chosen its path to glory and Sizing Europe's date with destiny is a familiar path also as many an Arkle winner has returned to win the big pot in recent years. There is no better form than previous Cheltenham Festival form when backing a horse at the next Cheltenham Festival. Both of these top class animals have top class form at the Festival and should not be missed.
Rm (Mark)
Tuesday 22 February 2011
THE RACEHORSING MAN ARRIVES!
Fresh, innovative insights into the Sport of Kings. Tomorrow's debut will contain:
- first qualifiers adopting a new system
- how best to avoid missing your horses to follow (GG)
- a tip for the Festival
Rm (Mark)
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