Dear All...
Very pleased with yesterday's first three races where, despite finding no punting opportunity (did have a sneaky yankee!), we did highlight the big priced second (early price anyway)in the opener and the first 3 home in th next two contests. Rodrigo didn't appear and My Boy Jack remains in the Notebook.
The other Notebook horses were disappointing. I constantly review how long I keep these live depending upon the origin of the information. One or two I get horribly wrong. Nevertheless, I don't back them blind; merely serve as a pointer.
The medium I use has not supplied the information today so playing in the dark...
Let's concentrate on York...
Do we really want to back Crown Dependency (2:00) at the prices. Might win; RPRs say he will; from the right yard with jockey expert at getting these types home in front but with 20 runners, mostly unexposed, surely one of them will improve past a horse which has been beaten in more races than it has won and both of its recent starts. I'm against. Not a lay though, unless odds-on.
Hestian interests me. I haven't looked at the stats but I think Tommy Stack has a good record when bringing fancied types over here.
The Lowther (2:30)is even tighter than the Acomb. Again, discipline is the order of the day. The last 5 renewals suggest that the two penalised runners, Best Terms and Gamilati will be beaten; Angels Will Fall has yet to put up a significant time (small field victories though) but is the solid contender. I give it a significant chance but I can't help liking the collateral form with Frederick Engels and the debut of RPR of 90+ posted by Shumoos who, like Fort Bastion yesterday, might come back to form. Two factors against Shumoos which prevent me from giving her a major word are the uncertainty of the ground (posted that high RPR on good to firm) and the trip (best RPR over 5F - however, the breeding gives me hope.
Again, no strong view on the Addleshaw Goddard (3:05) but the evidence says that no horse older than 4 years can win this (spurious stat I know!) but in the absence of other compelling evidence let's go with it. By that stat. alone the field is narrowed (Ben Aitken)to 7. Add these next two ingredients to the mix - joint top RPR and Spencer riding for Simcock - and suddenly you are sitting in a vat of chocolate with nobody watching!
It's not scientific but I like it. Pintura wins the 3:05(!)
The Yorkshire Oaks (3:45) is tarnished by the non-appearance of the commendably tough and talented Snow Fairy but it remains a fair field.The evidence of the last 5 years tells us, quite powerfully, that this race is won by a superstar(ess)! The only one of those in this field is now a non-runner.
We are looking for a champion 4-year old - Crystal Cappella is the closest - or a classic-winning 3-year old. Step up Blue Bunting or Banimpire. The trouble with the former of these two is her requirement for a fast pace to sit off and then swoop late. Will she get these circumstances in an 8-runner field? Back -in-running is best option when pace of contest known or, for those of you, who must have a wager then a combination exacta. Not convinced though; save pennies for a better opportunity.
Right! The Galtres (4:15). If Banimpire wins the Oaks then Field of Miracles should be a warm order in this. Forget her performance in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood, the balance of her form gives her a fair chance here. The older horses are not good enough; Polly's Mark may run into a place.
A tricky staying handicap (4:50) to conclude. Not much to say here. I looked at this from both sides now (Joni Mitchell 1970) and have no real basis upon which to hang the hat I don't own. Alazan is from a jumps yard and Hughesie is up and Sea Change (long absence) / Chilly Filly are from dual-purpose yards, all fit age stat (limited evidence) all finished 3rd last time (semblance of form) and all are unepxosed at the trip. The best RPR at trip is Magicalmysterytour who does not have a progressive profile... might be one lurking beneath (like Pam Ayres' false teeth) but I doubt it.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
ps - thank you to Richard Stoddart for his invaluable help with Twitter late last night!
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