Dear All
Bit concerned about Midnight Game now. I had overlooked the Gigginstown factor so it was Davey Russell who had the choice not Ruby! He has chosen Trifolium due to a questionable piece of work by the Game at the back end of last week. Not sure if Ruby then had second dibs but it seems as though he did. Anyways, he has chosen to ride Prospect Wells; for all we know that might have something to do with Prince De Beauchene in the National - both owned by the Wylies... sometimes these little side issues are a factor!
Don't be entirely put off from backing Midnight Game but Galileo's Choice has become my best preference in a very open affair.
Best Wagers today
Lay Hunt Ball a place
Back Al Ferof with Paddy Power (Sprinter Sacre refund)
Each-way Scotsirish in Cross Country (if any 4/1 available; maybe 7/2 or 3/1)
Each Way What A Charm in the Mares' Hurdle
Each Way Mic's Delight/Battle Group in the lucky last. The previous six renewals of this contest were won by an animal making its handicap debut - only 5 in the race and these are two of them. Also, 5 of Pipe's 7 Cheltenham winners apparently wore headgear. Battle Group wears blinkers for the first time today.
Back this evening with my thoughts on Gold Cup day, an update on days 2 and 3 and brief analysis of day 1.
Happy punting
Rm(Mark)
Tuesday 13 March 2012
Sunday 11 March 2012
Cheltenham 2012 - Part 3
Dear All
In today's blog
My thoughts on Day 3
An update on earlier musings about Day 1
Plans for Racehorsingman's future
The Grade 2 Jewson opens Day 3 and is made all the more interesting by the defection of Peddlers Cross from the Grade 1 Arkle on the first day. Mixed messages have consistently been the order of the day during McCain's interrupted preparations for a candidate that quite frankly looked the real deal when he emerged from two straightforward novice chase wins at Bangor. He's not very big you see. Something's not quite right!
I am bemused by McCain's decision.One minute he is advertising the well being of his charge telling all that next time he will serve it up to Sprinter Sacre; the next minute he has switched to a lower class contest. If the beast is not sufficiently forward in his preparation to handle Henderson's admittedly top class animal then, in my humble opinion, he will not be sufficiently forward to win the Jewson either...
Where we gain is that PC is making the market for us! The best piece of form for this contest may well have been posted by Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton Park at the end of February. A Racing Post Rating in excess of 150 inspires confidence. I am sitting smugly on a voucher saying 10s and resisting the temptation to lay in expectation McCain will announce late on a further defection...
I will lay though, at the appropriate time, with my confidence tempered by the appearance of very solid candidates in the next four places in the market - Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup winner of the future perhaps and former Festival winner!), For Non Stop (consistent sort just short of top class), Champion Court (my idea of the best each way value) and Solix (some positive whispers from Seven Barrows heard recently)
So,
Cristal Bonus - back to lay
Champion Court - each way
Peddlers Cross - lay lay lay
Sir Des Champs - Grade 1 potential; likely winner.
Be careful though! Back him in the Non Runner No Bet markets as he is still entered for the RSA Chase. Betfair markets don't really help here; he is popular in both!
The long distance handicap hurdle is next. Sponsored by Pertemps for many years now JP McManus-owned contenders and those from the breeding empire of HH The Aga Khan are always my first port of call. Not the most reliable selection process me thinks but I can't help myself! This theory led me to Tarvini . I am on at fancy prices but he is around No. 70 in the list so it will take a leap of faith to expect him to line up on Thursday.
I have no strong feelings about the outcome here but I would mention David Pipe's Poole Master - you cannot underestimate any of the Pipe runners in the handicaps - if he gets in and if the Nicholashayne operation decides this is the best of its several options for this progressive type...
I expect to back this one wherever it runs...
Also, less dark (if a Pipe-trained handicapper winning its last three races can be described as dark) and a smidgen more exposed is Cape Tribulation who has never quite established himself on one of the top tables. Guaranteed to stay; back him each way on the day with a bookie paying 5 places.
Remember if you are going to Cheltenham don't back with the on-course bookmakers - hit the Confirm button on your laptop and take advantage of the myriad of offers the usual suspects (Ladbrokes etc.) are shouting from the rooftops...
Many shrewd judges keep telling me that Riverside Theatre does not act at Cheltenham. The one piece of evidence submitted by the prosecuting counsel is the 2010 Arkle. You can watch this race on the Sporting Life website. He is hopelessly outpaced early but when he disappears out of site at the point the director concentrates on the leading contenders it is inconceivable that he could possibly finish as close up. Crying out for a step up in trip he is now firmly established as a top class animal. I am in no doubt that he is a Grade 1 horse here in a Grade 2 race and will disprove all Cheltenham theories. Well maybe just one doubt! Henderson's reluctance in allowing RT to run at Cheltenham since; maybe it's just been opportunities. He has, of course, been injured for some of the time since that Arkle performance.
There are a host of potential dangers such as Medermit (likely to start here rather than the oft mooted Gold Cup), Somersby (still entered in the Champion Chase but another Grade 1 horse), Rubi Light (ground a concern) and Noble Prince (last year's Jewson winner and arguably a tad disappointing this season). It's Riverside Theatre for me.
It is difficult to oppose Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. He's won his last 15! One or two have got him at it. I often muse about the prospect of Baracouda (one of my all-time favourite racehorses) lining up against Paul Nicholls' formidable bay/brown gelding. What a race that might have been! Let me know what you think the outcome would have been!
I have staked my largest wager of the Festival on Oscar Whisky each way. I rarely back each way these days but when I do the horse in question has to have a serious chance of winning the contest. There are two principal protagonists here who have yet to compete against the Ditcheat destroyer - OW and So Young and I give them both chances. My suggestion is back them both to win (or each way) in the "betting without Big Bucks market". Those that have faced BB before will again go home destitute with colours lowered...
With Salut Flo (Pipe's well handicapped sort is entered in everything, including the Boat Race) now too short, I will put up 3 that I like in the highly competitive Byrne Group Plate (4pm). Niceonefrankie (needs a few to step down) looks very interesting off a potentially featherweight for the rampant (in-form I might add!) Venetia Williams yard, Notus De La Tour (another Pipe animal - I do like Dan Breen but he struggled to get home over a furlong shorter at flatter Newbury last time) and Divers (winner of the Novices Handicap Chase on the first day last year, trained by a master Festival manipulator in Ferdinand Murphy and with the eyecatching booking of AP)
The amateur-ridden winner of the Kim Muir (I must find out who he was!) is always a tricky affair (and the other races aren't I suppose! Ed.). I suspect that I will be grasping at straws. I have heard good words for Up The Beat (Willie Mullins again!), Becauseicouldntsee (placed in the 4-miler two years ago), Brackloon High (Noel Chance is sweet on its chances I believe!) and Your Busy (given a good word at a Festival Preview night by Ruby and likely to be ridden by sister Katie).
By now the Irish could be smiling - remember earlier in the season I commented upon the potential for the Irish to saddle 13 or more winners. It is still a realistic assertion; this suggestion comes highly recommended. The quality of the Irish team is frightening even without the might of the battalions Bagenalstown - it is not impossible that we will witness double- figure success for Mullins and his team. If Ruby rides for Mullins when he might have ridden for Team Ditcheat in the same race it is surely better than any tip blogsters like me can provide...
---------------------
A quick reprise of Day 1...
I'm still not really sure where my allegiance lies in the Supreme - it looks a really competitive contest. Galileo's Choice may go off as the second Irish challenger in the market though there's still plenty of time for that to change...
Darlan - is it the wrong race? I can't back down now!!! McCoy up. JP's best chance according to the man himself...
Steps To Freedom - long absence statistic to overcome but it was pre-ordained! Mrs Harrington knows what she's doing so not to be underestimated...
Galileo's Choice - another stat. to overcome here with Dermot Weld's shocking record at Cheltenham to defeat. I'm not sure it is relevant but sometimes it is a reflection of a trainer's preferred targets for his horses but surely if Weld had one good enough he'd want to win. In any case, he has commented that Galileo's Choice lacking experience for the hurly-burly of this always competitive contest...
Midnight Game - my preferred. Mullins off to a good start.
Montbazon - working its socks off according to the stable. May be just a little short of the right stuff to win but likely close up...
Cinders And Ashes - the solid one but hasn't run in the calendar year like Steps To Freedom. I think he will come up a little short...
At a price, some have suggested Prospect Wells may rediscover his early season form after a break but he is tied in closely with STF and like Jessica's animal is probably not good enough.
With real uncertainty, Midnight Game to beat home Galileo's Choice and Darlan...
Paddy Power's offer of a refund if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle means we must dutch Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah against him... Cue Card each way still sound but do it before final; declarations because I fear there might be less than 8 runners.
In the JLT, no strong preference - my earlier suggestions Quantitativeeasing (too much weight) and Lie Forrit (not declared) have now been superseded. Want to see the final declarations before committing again. I am coming round to Hold On Julio and Zarrafakt...
I will stand by my initial thinking about the Champion Hurdle, the Mares' Hurdle and the Cross Country Handicap...
In the final race, the Novices' Handicap Chase, Carrickboy looks interesting with Aidan Coleman already declared to ride this one of three Venetia Williams runners near the top of the Racing Post ratings...
--------------------
Finally, expect some changes to the Racehorsing Man blogspot after Grand National weekend. More blogs, more contents, a new Darkwater design, regular systems, tips and trends...
See you tomorrow...
Rm (Mark)
In today's blog
My thoughts on Day 3
An update on earlier musings about Day 1
Plans for Racehorsingman's future
The Grade 2 Jewson opens Day 3 and is made all the more interesting by the defection of Peddlers Cross from the Grade 1 Arkle on the first day. Mixed messages have consistently been the order of the day during McCain's interrupted preparations for a candidate that quite frankly looked the real deal when he emerged from two straightforward novice chase wins at Bangor. He's not very big you see. Something's not quite right!
I am bemused by McCain's decision.One minute he is advertising the well being of his charge telling all that next time he will serve it up to Sprinter Sacre; the next minute he has switched to a lower class contest. If the beast is not sufficiently forward in his preparation to handle Henderson's admittedly top class animal then, in my humble opinion, he will not be sufficiently forward to win the Jewson either...
Where we gain is that PC is making the market for us! The best piece of form for this contest may well have been posted by Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton Park at the end of February. A Racing Post Rating in excess of 150 inspires confidence. I am sitting smugly on a voucher saying 10s and resisting the temptation to lay in expectation McCain will announce late on a further defection...
I will lay though, at the appropriate time, with my confidence tempered by the appearance of very solid candidates in the next four places in the market - Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup winner of the future perhaps and former Festival winner!), For Non Stop (consistent sort just short of top class), Champion Court (my idea of the best each way value) and Solix (some positive whispers from Seven Barrows heard recently)
So,
Cristal Bonus - back to lay
Champion Court - each way
Peddlers Cross - lay lay lay
Sir Des Champs - Grade 1 potential; likely winner.
Be careful though! Back him in the Non Runner No Bet markets as he is still entered for the RSA Chase. Betfair markets don't really help here; he is popular in both!
The long distance handicap hurdle is next. Sponsored by Pertemps for many years now JP McManus-owned contenders and those from the breeding empire of HH The Aga Khan are always my first port of call. Not the most reliable selection process me thinks but I can't help myself! This theory led me to Tarvini . I am on at fancy prices but he is around No. 70 in the list so it will take a leap of faith to expect him to line up on Thursday.
I have no strong feelings about the outcome here but I would mention David Pipe's Poole Master - you cannot underestimate any of the Pipe runners in the handicaps - if he gets in and if the Nicholashayne operation decides this is the best of its several options for this progressive type...
I expect to back this one wherever it runs...
Also, less dark (if a Pipe-trained handicapper winning its last three races can be described as dark) and a smidgen more exposed is Cape Tribulation who has never quite established himself on one of the top tables. Guaranteed to stay; back him each way on the day with a bookie paying 5 places.
Remember if you are going to Cheltenham don't back with the on-course bookmakers - hit the Confirm button on your laptop and take advantage of the myriad of offers the usual suspects (Ladbrokes etc.) are shouting from the rooftops...
Many shrewd judges keep telling me that Riverside Theatre does not act at Cheltenham. The one piece of evidence submitted by the prosecuting counsel is the 2010 Arkle. You can watch this race on the Sporting Life website. He is hopelessly outpaced early but when he disappears out of site at the point the director concentrates on the leading contenders it is inconceivable that he could possibly finish as close up. Crying out for a step up in trip he is now firmly established as a top class animal. I am in no doubt that he is a Grade 1 horse here in a Grade 2 race and will disprove all Cheltenham theories. Well maybe just one doubt! Henderson's reluctance in allowing RT to run at Cheltenham since; maybe it's just been opportunities. He has, of course, been injured for some of the time since that Arkle performance.
There are a host of potential dangers such as Medermit (likely to start here rather than the oft mooted Gold Cup), Somersby (still entered in the Champion Chase but another Grade 1 horse), Rubi Light (ground a concern) and Noble Prince (last year's Jewson winner and arguably a tad disappointing this season). It's Riverside Theatre for me.
It is difficult to oppose Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. He's won his last 15! One or two have got him at it. I often muse about the prospect of Baracouda (one of my all-time favourite racehorses) lining up against Paul Nicholls' formidable bay/brown gelding. What a race that might have been! Let me know what you think the outcome would have been!
I have staked my largest wager of the Festival on Oscar Whisky each way. I rarely back each way these days but when I do the horse in question has to have a serious chance of winning the contest. There are two principal protagonists here who have yet to compete against the Ditcheat destroyer - OW and So Young and I give them both chances. My suggestion is back them both to win (or each way) in the "betting without Big Bucks market". Those that have faced BB before will again go home destitute with colours lowered...
With Salut Flo (Pipe's well handicapped sort is entered in everything, including the Boat Race) now too short, I will put up 3 that I like in the highly competitive Byrne Group Plate (4pm). Niceonefrankie (needs a few to step down) looks very interesting off a potentially featherweight for the rampant (in-form I might add!) Venetia Williams yard, Notus De La Tour (another Pipe animal - I do like Dan Breen but he struggled to get home over a furlong shorter at flatter Newbury last time) and Divers (winner of the Novices Handicap Chase on the first day last year, trained by a master Festival manipulator in Ferdinand Murphy and with the eyecatching booking of AP)
The amateur-ridden winner of the Kim Muir (I must find out who he was!) is always a tricky affair (and the other races aren't I suppose! Ed.). I suspect that I will be grasping at straws. I have heard good words for Up The Beat (Willie Mullins again!), Becauseicouldntsee (placed in the 4-miler two years ago), Brackloon High (Noel Chance is sweet on its chances I believe!) and Your Busy (given a good word at a Festival Preview night by Ruby and likely to be ridden by sister Katie).
By now the Irish could be smiling - remember earlier in the season I commented upon the potential for the Irish to saddle 13 or more winners. It is still a realistic assertion; this suggestion comes highly recommended. The quality of the Irish team is frightening even without the might of the battalions Bagenalstown - it is not impossible that we will witness double- figure success for Mullins and his team. If Ruby rides for Mullins when he might have ridden for Team Ditcheat in the same race it is surely better than any tip blogsters like me can provide...
---------------------
A quick reprise of Day 1...
I'm still not really sure where my allegiance lies in the Supreme - it looks a really competitive contest. Galileo's Choice may go off as the second Irish challenger in the market though there's still plenty of time for that to change...
Darlan - is it the wrong race? I can't back down now!!! McCoy up. JP's best chance according to the man himself...
Steps To Freedom - long absence statistic to overcome but it was pre-ordained! Mrs Harrington knows what she's doing so not to be underestimated...
Galileo's Choice - another stat. to overcome here with Dermot Weld's shocking record at Cheltenham to defeat. I'm not sure it is relevant but sometimes it is a reflection of a trainer's preferred targets for his horses but surely if Weld had one good enough he'd want to win. In any case, he has commented that Galileo's Choice lacking experience for the hurly-burly of this always competitive contest...
Midnight Game - my preferred. Mullins off to a good start.
Montbazon - working its socks off according to the stable. May be just a little short of the right stuff to win but likely close up...
Cinders And Ashes - the solid one but hasn't run in the calendar year like Steps To Freedom. I think he will come up a little short...
At a price, some have suggested Prospect Wells may rediscover his early season form after a break but he is tied in closely with STF and like Jessica's animal is probably not good enough.
With real uncertainty, Midnight Game to beat home Galileo's Choice and Darlan...
Paddy Power's offer of a refund if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle means we must dutch Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah against him... Cue Card each way still sound but do it before final; declarations because I fear there might be less than 8 runners.
In the JLT, no strong preference - my earlier suggestions Quantitativeeasing (too much weight) and Lie Forrit (not declared) have now been superseded. Want to see the final declarations before committing again. I am coming round to Hold On Julio and Zarrafakt...
I will stand by my initial thinking about the Champion Hurdle, the Mares' Hurdle and the Cross Country Handicap...
In the final race, the Novices' Handicap Chase, Carrickboy looks interesting with Aidan Coleman already declared to ride this one of three Venetia Williams runners near the top of the Racing Post ratings...
--------------------
Finally, expect some changes to the Racehorsing Man blogspot after Grand National weekend. More blogs, more contents, a new Darkwater design, regular systems, tips and trends...
See you tomorrow...
Rm (Mark)
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