Dear All

A disappointing return yesterday - less said the better but as all of you who punt will know only too well it happens..!

The opening handicap today (2:00) is virtually impossible. The only narrowing of the field I can make is, firstly, to 4-year olds, who seem to hold sway in recent renewals then the in-form runners i.e. Agent Archie (Haggas-trained; a proud Yorkshireman!), Lady Chaparral, Doctor Zhivago and McBirney... Not much help! Sorry!
Please note though that Messrs. Stoute and Johnston have won all of the last 4 of these.

The Gimcrack (2:30) doesn't look a great race to me this year. Justineo is in my Notebook but, although a mightily in-form Jamie Spencer is a major plus, the horse doesn't look good enough purely on ratings. Everything in the race has either blotted its copybook or achieved little. On that basis, it's a no bet race for me but if the Haggas animal was a working man's price I might step in... unlikely!!!

I think Western Aristocrat (3:05)is the unexposed one in the Strensall and I like its chances. Stoutly bred on the dam's side he appears to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Posted an excellent speed rating at Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes) and appears to have bags of improvement in him. Noseda has booked the French wizard, Olivier Peslier (lay off the pasties Olivier!) and all looks set fare for a big run.

I have always loved last time out winners with the top RPR, especially so if 5 pounds clear. Hoof It only has 2lbs in hand in the Nunthorpe (3:45)but is fast improving and the traditionally garrulous Mick Easterby's enthusiasm for the animal is infectious.

This race carries the most extraordinary stat. The last 7 winners were all a different age. Regrettably, there is no 8-year old to complete the sequence.

I read somewhere this week that Bated Breath is indifferent to ground conditions. Roger Charlton, always erring towards the side of caution, clearly disagrees as soft ground is often the cause for his enduring concern. The formbook cocks a snook at this theory also. All of its best form does appear to be on fast ground. All runs where the animal has finished outside the top three were on ground where the letter "F" was absent from the going description. The ground has been riding as if plenty of ease exists and the overnight rain will not have helped.

Juveniles have a good record in this race and David Wachman rarely tilts at windmills. I also love last time out winners at the bottom of the weights so Requinto is my selection; the price might be a little more attractive but bookmakers' fingers have been charred before by youngsters in this fascinating contest.

A maiden, at last, is next (4:15); the first of the week and usually an informative one; the most valuable (in prize money terms) maiden race of the season. It is full of possibilities. With maidens the first point of call is to establish whether any of the raced horses has posted an effort which means their experience will be put to good use. A newcomer has to be exceptional (and backed heavily) otherwise.

The debutantes come from all the right yards; Ballydoyle (twofold), Sir Henry, Hannon (won with Moriarty last year!), Noseda, Suroor and Zarooni...

I am not convinced that either of Llanarmon Lad or Burano are going to be good enough here; prefer the former (sure will be placed in first 3)...
Watch the market. The backed newcomers will come to the fore. No bet at this stage. Imperial Order - keep a close eye on him...

The final contest - a 7F fillies' handicap - is just too tricky. Coolminx (joint top-rated/winner last time out) is the one to which I keep coming back. Lee Topliss might be on board to counteract the penalty but nevertheless Paul Hanagan is on Jeanie Galloway for his guv'nor and catches the eye; a Fahey plot at his home course perhaps!

Happy punting!

Rm(M)