Dear All

I couldn't help being drawn in by Paddy Power's offer of 20/1 for all of last year's Championship event winners at the Cheltenham Festival to repeat the dose on the hallowed turf over four days in March.

It was not a serious wager and, I must defend myself by stating quite clearly that I am not ordinarily befuddled by bookmaker offers. Remember! Special offers are usually to the detriment of the punter and to the benefit of Mr Turf Accountant... when a bookie promotes his wares by adding a half point to fancied runner's odds it's not because of a benevolent streak etched into said bookie's bone marrow it's because he doesn't fancy the nag but hopes you do..!

Back to the matter in hand..! This particular offer struck me as one; not gushing forth perhaps but, at least, seeping, a tad of value...

So, where might it fail! I thought it might make an interesting post to discuss the relative merits of the four musketeers!

The one I consider most vulnerable is Hurricane Fly... I have my doubts whether last year's contest was quite as good as it appeared. I'm being a little mischievous here really; fully aware that The Fly is up there with the best during the post-Istabraq years (incidentally - in Swindon where I live there is an office building badged up as Istabraq House! How quaint!) The time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was a little quicker than the Champion over the same course on the same day on the same going; Peddlers' Cross has been somewhat disappointing since bringing into question not whether the form is of any value but more that it may not have been quite as compelling as it seemed at first light!

I doubt there is anything in the likely field that will blow down the Hurricane but he may bounce (only one run in two hundred plus days)... the great unknown is Zarkandar, completely unexposed and, like the reigning champion, imbued with regal blood - and the dependably solid Oscars Well who will improve, I believe, for better ground and Cheltenham's unique configuration...

Big Bucks is next! Sacrilege I know to suggest; to even contemplate defeat for this most champion of champions - almost all of the greats are beaten eventually though! Chances are it will happen on the biggest, most theatrical of stages, in the cauldron of Prestbury Park when all present are waiting; gripped by the anticipation of history being created or by the vaguely crumpled betting voucher bearing the inscription TO WIN sat snugly alongside the words So Young as the Mullins' young pretender draws alongside the champion shortly before the final obstacle...

My reasoning is simple - there will be at least three high class animals; unexposed at the trip; challenging the reigning champion; namely Oscar Whisky (needs to prove he will stay - think he will!), the aforementioned So Young and the returning prodigal son, Mikael D'Haguenet - a former sun of March poetry! He is no longer setting wearily to the West but instead is rising imperiously again above the horizon!

Next is Long Run - last year's champion staying chaser - looks even more of a stayer this year. The mighty Kauto has outjumped the young pretender; Ruby has dazzled with his horsemanship aboard this noble warrior; the dentist has appeared toothless in comparison... despite this though it is a race for stayers; Kauto's record at Cheltenham, although splendid, is not as splendid as it is at Kempton or at Haydock... it demands much of this speedy French-bred sort. I think the Waley-Cohen's will exact their revenge on Team Ditcheat...

The most likely repeat success will, in my opinion, be that of Sizing Europe. I am happy to lay the eleven year-old Big Zeb for a place; Finian's Rainbow does not appear in love with Prestbury Park; may lack a gear when push comes to shove; the rest are just not in the same stratosphere. Any price of odds against is tremendous value; he will win..!.

So having wagered in favour of the four superstars here's my sporting alternative

Oscars Well in the Champion Hurdle
Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase
So Young in the World Hurdle
Long Run in the Gold Cup

Speak soon

Rm(Mark)