Some decent racing today but I can’t find anything of real value and so will keep my powder dry. Sir Michael Stoute unleashed a useful type, the beautifully bred, PETERHOF who, in keeping with the better juveniles in the Barbadian’s care, at this stage of the season, was a winner first time out on the all-weather at Lingfield Park. A Derby entry, he will probably be among the yard’s best 3-year old’s next season.

Half an hour later, an even more impressive juvenile, this time from the Godolphin operation, CLASSIC COLLECTION was a facile 6-length winner and oozed class throughout. Keep an eye out for this one as he progresses.

Sir Mark Prescott’s ALBA VERDE surely has the absolute modus operandi of a horse from the yard. Owned by Kirsten Rausing, a winner last twice, so progressive, entered in 5 days time in a similar contest. Regrettably though such forensic information adds up to a short-price and I’m sure anyone who has even micro-knowledge of the subject will be able to pick this one out. Selecting such horses is not the MO of this blog now or in the future.

Racehorsingman

I want to take on El Namoose in the closing bumper (5:20) at Huntingdon later today. It is notoriously difficult for those penalised runners to succeed in these contests. The historic record of this race supports this theory, albeit not unequivocally and Purple Bay, a similar sort from the same stable, was beaten at odds-on carrying one such penalty last season.

Charlie Longsdon won that one and might this year with Kiteney Wood, an ex-Irish pointer, though something tells me that the Oliver Sherwood beast, Kilgeel Hill, about which I've read good reports, will prevail. You don't get much better family genetics than Oscar (sire) and Executive Perk (dam-sire). Whatever happens today, I suspect we will hear a lot more about Kilgeel Hill.

Seolan is of major interest in the 7-furlong handicap (3:40) at Leicester back on her favoured soft ground. Roger Charlton's lightly raced type won her first two starts in Ireland (for Mr Prendergast and Mr Deegan) on bad ground and then twice proved unsuccessful across the pond on much faster going. With Danehill Dancer as her dam-sire, cut is almost certainly a pre-requisite and there will be plenty of the stuff at Leicester, I'm sure. Buick rides. The one black mark is a 409-day absence from the track.

Racehorsingman

Nothing of great interest for tomorrow though a couple of interesting maiden fillies in the 3:00 at Salisbury. Rae Guest, specialist trainer of fillies, saddles Miniskirt whilst Mick Channon has Victoria Bird, more exposed, but promising for handicaps going forward.

Both have been absent for some considerable time, suggesting training problems, which tempers enthusiasm for a wager on either or, indeed, both but you could do worse than a reverse exacta or forecast.

No selection, though two for the little black book...

I saw Doing Fine beat the the highly rated and useful Carraig Mor and win at Ascot last November. I made a mental note of him then.

Today, the son of Presenting out a Montelimar mare - prime jumping stock - makes his chasing debut at his trainer's home track of Ffos Las this afternoon in what looks a fairly competitive little novice handicap over 3-miles.

The Curtis yard appears in fine form and top jock Jason Maguire is booked. With an absence of 320+ days the price of 5/1 (backed this morning) is perhaps a tad shorter than I'd prefer. This though is a stable going somewhere and a horse with talent. My nap of the day and a horse (and stable) to follow.

Racehorsingman

Dear All

Two selections for tomorrow though will be watchful of the going...

Dance of Fire - 2:50 Epsom - only 3 runners and not great value but Andrew Balding's non-handicap juveniles at Epsom are always worth considering - small stakes for bank accumulation purposes...

Mission Approved - 3:25 Epsom - improving (ex-Juddmonte) type; best RPR last time out at Glorious Goodwood, last few runs all over 6-furlongs - both wins over 7-furlongs; has won on soft ground; very consistent and worth a few quid.

More soon...

Racehorsingman

Dear all

I'm back!

I've been concentrating on 2-year old races this Flat season and especially on those races under the Pattern system or Conditions; maidens are more tricky. I've always kept tabs on horses that win races by a number of lengths; this is relevant in handicaps and particularly in juvenile contests and is a useful pointer.

This season though, I've begun to recognise that, just as important, are Racing Post ratings. For those of you who buy other daily newspapers, stop! RP ratings are the bible as far as I'm concerned. For most of us, it's not possible to review each race in detail; to assess the form, lengths to pounds carried - work, the family, life gets in the way, so we have to short-circuit.

What do I look for - well,

Debutantes who receive an RPR of 80+ are worth noting. I particularly like the beaten horses on debut who achieve this figure because they still qualify for maidens. The debutants that win I like to see achieve a minimum RPR of 90+.

I'm not sure exactly why but it's the first two runs which seem to me to be the most crucial in determining the winners of the better juvenile races. Let's take today's Gimcrack Stakes, for instance. 4 of the runners had achieved, according to RP ratings, a higher number than Muhaarar, but when researching performance in the entire field's opening two racecourse appearances, Muhaarar had achieved the best number on debut (86) and again next time (102). Even though, he'd been beaten since, and by one of today's opponents too, those opening efforts appear to indicate a touch of quality. 

I've not researched sufficiently to know why this might be but it's possible that the extra class of these types in maidens is less visible in later starts due to race circumstances, like going, trip, course etc etc. so an occasional unexpected defeat might occur whilst the yard is getting to know the traits of characteristics of its charge. 

However, in Pattern/Conditions contests, occasionally there are types who are 5 pounds clear of the rest of the field. These will likely win whatever especially if a winner last time out. In fact, this little nugget works in all contests, juvenile or otherwise.

Backing blind is not, of course, perceived wisdom. Value as ever is vital...

More soon...

Racehorsing Man

From 1 September, I'll be back with a more regular service throughout the Winter...

Cheltenham is meandering into view...

Can't wait...

R