Dear all

I'm back!

I've been concentrating on 2-year old races this Flat season and especially on those races under the Pattern system or Conditions; maidens are more tricky. I've always kept tabs on horses that win races by a number of lengths; this is relevant in handicaps and particularly in juvenile contests and is a useful pointer.

This season though, I've begun to recognise that, just as important, are Racing Post ratings. For those of you who buy other daily newspapers, stop! RP ratings are the bible as far as I'm concerned. For most of us, it's not possible to review each race in detail; to assess the form, lengths to pounds carried - work, the family, life gets in the way, so we have to short-circuit.

What do I look for - well,

Debutantes who receive an RPR of 80+ are worth noting. I particularly like the beaten horses on debut who achieve this figure because they still qualify for maidens. The debutants that win I like to see achieve a minimum RPR of 90+.

I'm not sure exactly why but it's the first two runs which seem to me to be the most crucial in determining the winners of the better juvenile races. Let's take today's Gimcrack Stakes, for instance. 4 of the runners had achieved, according to RP ratings, a higher number than Muhaarar, but when researching performance in the entire field's opening two racecourse appearances, Muhaarar had achieved the best number on debut (86) and again next time (102). Even though, he'd been beaten since, and by one of today's opponents too, those opening efforts appear to indicate a touch of quality. 

I've not researched sufficiently to know why this might be but it's possible that the extra class of these types in maidens is less visible in later starts due to race circumstances, like going, trip, course etc etc. so an occasional unexpected defeat might occur whilst the yard is getting to know the traits of characteristics of its charge. 

However, in Pattern/Conditions contests, occasionally there are types who are 5 pounds clear of the rest of the field. These will likely win whatever especially if a winner last time out. In fact, this little nugget works in all contests, juvenile or otherwise.

Backing blind is not, of course, perceived wisdom. Value as ever is vital...

More soon...

Racehorsing Man