Dear All
Bit concerned about Midnight Game now. I had overlooked the Gigginstown factor so it was Davey Russell who had the choice not Ruby! He has chosen Trifolium due to a questionable piece of work by the Game at the back end of last week. Not sure if Ruby then had second dibs but it seems as though he did. Anyways, he has chosen to ride Prospect Wells; for all we know that might have something to do with Prince De Beauchene in the National - both owned by the Wylies... sometimes these little side issues are a factor!
Don't be entirely put off from backing Midnight Game but Galileo's Choice has become my best preference in a very open affair.
Best Wagers today
Lay Hunt Ball a place
Back Al Ferof with Paddy Power (Sprinter Sacre refund)
Each-way Scotsirish in Cross Country (if any 4/1 available; maybe 7/2 or 3/1)
Each Way What A Charm in the Mares' Hurdle
Each Way Mic's Delight/Battle Group in the lucky last. The previous six renewals of this contest were won by an animal making its handicap debut - only 5 in the race and these are two of them. Also, 5 of Pipe's 7 Cheltenham winners apparently wore headgear. Battle Group wears blinkers for the first time today.
Back this evening with my thoughts on Gold Cup day, an update on days 2 and 3 and brief analysis of day 1.
Happy punting
Rm(Mark)
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Sunday, 11 March 2012
Cheltenham 2012 - Part 3
Dear All
In today's blog
My thoughts on Day 3
An update on earlier musings about Day 1
Plans for Racehorsingman's future
The Grade 2 Jewson opens Day 3 and is made all the more interesting by the defection of Peddlers Cross from the Grade 1 Arkle on the first day. Mixed messages have consistently been the order of the day during McCain's interrupted preparations for a candidate that quite frankly looked the real deal when he emerged from two straightforward novice chase wins at Bangor. He's not very big you see. Something's not quite right!
I am bemused by McCain's decision.One minute he is advertising the well being of his charge telling all that next time he will serve it up to Sprinter Sacre; the next minute he has switched to a lower class contest. If the beast is not sufficiently forward in his preparation to handle Henderson's admittedly top class animal then, in my humble opinion, he will not be sufficiently forward to win the Jewson either...
Where we gain is that PC is making the market for us! The best piece of form for this contest may well have been posted by Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton Park at the end of February. A Racing Post Rating in excess of 150 inspires confidence. I am sitting smugly on a voucher saying 10s and resisting the temptation to lay in expectation McCain will announce late on a further defection...
I will lay though, at the appropriate time, with my confidence tempered by the appearance of very solid candidates in the next four places in the market - Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup winner of the future perhaps and former Festival winner!), For Non Stop (consistent sort just short of top class), Champion Court (my idea of the best each way value) and Solix (some positive whispers from Seven Barrows heard recently)
So,
Cristal Bonus - back to lay
Champion Court - each way
Peddlers Cross - lay lay lay
Sir Des Champs - Grade 1 potential; likely winner.
Be careful though! Back him in the Non Runner No Bet markets as he is still entered for the RSA Chase. Betfair markets don't really help here; he is popular in both!
The long distance handicap hurdle is next. Sponsored by Pertemps for many years now JP McManus-owned contenders and those from the breeding empire of HH The Aga Khan are always my first port of call. Not the most reliable selection process me thinks but I can't help myself! This theory led me to Tarvini . I am on at fancy prices but he is around No. 70 in the list so it will take a leap of faith to expect him to line up on Thursday.
I have no strong feelings about the outcome here but I would mention David Pipe's Poole Master - you cannot underestimate any of the Pipe runners in the handicaps - if he gets in and if the Nicholashayne operation decides this is the best of its several options for this progressive type...
I expect to back this one wherever it runs...
Also, less dark (if a Pipe-trained handicapper winning its last three races can be described as dark) and a smidgen more exposed is Cape Tribulation who has never quite established himself on one of the top tables. Guaranteed to stay; back him each way on the day with a bookie paying 5 places.
Remember if you are going to Cheltenham don't back with the on-course bookmakers - hit the Confirm button on your laptop and take advantage of the myriad of offers the usual suspects (Ladbrokes etc.) are shouting from the rooftops...
Many shrewd judges keep telling me that Riverside Theatre does not act at Cheltenham. The one piece of evidence submitted by the prosecuting counsel is the 2010 Arkle. You can watch this race on the Sporting Life website. He is hopelessly outpaced early but when he disappears out of site at the point the director concentrates on the leading contenders it is inconceivable that he could possibly finish as close up. Crying out for a step up in trip he is now firmly established as a top class animal. I am in no doubt that he is a Grade 1 horse here in a Grade 2 race and will disprove all Cheltenham theories. Well maybe just one doubt! Henderson's reluctance in allowing RT to run at Cheltenham since; maybe it's just been opportunities. He has, of course, been injured for some of the time since that Arkle performance.
There are a host of potential dangers such as Medermit (likely to start here rather than the oft mooted Gold Cup), Somersby (still entered in the Champion Chase but another Grade 1 horse), Rubi Light (ground a concern) and Noble Prince (last year's Jewson winner and arguably a tad disappointing this season). It's Riverside Theatre for me.
It is difficult to oppose Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. He's won his last 15! One or two have got him at it. I often muse about the prospect of Baracouda (one of my all-time favourite racehorses) lining up against Paul Nicholls' formidable bay/brown gelding. What a race that might have been! Let me know what you think the outcome would have been!
I have staked my largest wager of the Festival on Oscar Whisky each way. I rarely back each way these days but when I do the horse in question has to have a serious chance of winning the contest. There are two principal protagonists here who have yet to compete against the Ditcheat destroyer - OW and So Young and I give them both chances. My suggestion is back them both to win (or each way) in the "betting without Big Bucks market". Those that have faced BB before will again go home destitute with colours lowered...
With Salut Flo (Pipe's well handicapped sort is entered in everything, including the Boat Race) now too short, I will put up 3 that I like in the highly competitive Byrne Group Plate (4pm). Niceonefrankie (needs a few to step down) looks very interesting off a potentially featherweight for the rampant (in-form I might add!) Venetia Williams yard, Notus De La Tour (another Pipe animal - I do like Dan Breen but he struggled to get home over a furlong shorter at flatter Newbury last time) and Divers (winner of the Novices Handicap Chase on the first day last year, trained by a master Festival manipulator in Ferdinand Murphy and with the eyecatching booking of AP)
The amateur-ridden winner of the Kim Muir (I must find out who he was!) is always a tricky affair (and the other races aren't I suppose! Ed.). I suspect that I will be grasping at straws. I have heard good words for Up The Beat (Willie Mullins again!), Becauseicouldntsee (placed in the 4-miler two years ago), Brackloon High (Noel Chance is sweet on its chances I believe!) and Your Busy (given a good word at a Festival Preview night by Ruby and likely to be ridden by sister Katie).
By now the Irish could be smiling - remember earlier in the season I commented upon the potential for the Irish to saddle 13 or more winners. It is still a realistic assertion; this suggestion comes highly recommended. The quality of the Irish team is frightening even without the might of the battalions Bagenalstown - it is not impossible that we will witness double- figure success for Mullins and his team. If Ruby rides for Mullins when he might have ridden for Team Ditcheat in the same race it is surely better than any tip blogsters like me can provide...
---------------------
A quick reprise of Day 1...
I'm still not really sure where my allegiance lies in the Supreme - it looks a really competitive contest. Galileo's Choice may go off as the second Irish challenger in the market though there's still plenty of time for that to change...
Darlan - is it the wrong race? I can't back down now!!! McCoy up. JP's best chance according to the man himself...
Steps To Freedom - long absence statistic to overcome but it was pre-ordained! Mrs Harrington knows what she's doing so not to be underestimated...
Galileo's Choice - another stat. to overcome here with Dermot Weld's shocking record at Cheltenham to defeat. I'm not sure it is relevant but sometimes it is a reflection of a trainer's preferred targets for his horses but surely if Weld had one good enough he'd want to win. In any case, he has commented that Galileo's Choice lacking experience for the hurly-burly of this always competitive contest...
Midnight Game - my preferred. Mullins off to a good start.
Montbazon - working its socks off according to the stable. May be just a little short of the right stuff to win but likely close up...
Cinders And Ashes - the solid one but hasn't run in the calendar year like Steps To Freedom. I think he will come up a little short...
At a price, some have suggested Prospect Wells may rediscover his early season form after a break but he is tied in closely with STF and like Jessica's animal is probably not good enough.
With real uncertainty, Midnight Game to beat home Galileo's Choice and Darlan...
Paddy Power's offer of a refund if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle means we must dutch Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah against him... Cue Card each way still sound but do it before final; declarations because I fear there might be less than 8 runners.
In the JLT, no strong preference - my earlier suggestions Quantitativeeasing (too much weight) and Lie Forrit (not declared) have now been superseded. Want to see the final declarations before committing again. I am coming round to Hold On Julio and Zarrafakt...
I will stand by my initial thinking about the Champion Hurdle, the Mares' Hurdle and the Cross Country Handicap...
In the final race, the Novices' Handicap Chase, Carrickboy looks interesting with Aidan Coleman already declared to ride this one of three Venetia Williams runners near the top of the Racing Post ratings...
--------------------
Finally, expect some changes to the Racehorsing Man blogspot after Grand National weekend. More blogs, more contents, a new Darkwater design, regular systems, tips and trends...
See you tomorrow...
Rm (Mark)
In today's blog
My thoughts on Day 3
An update on earlier musings about Day 1
Plans for Racehorsingman's future
The Grade 2 Jewson opens Day 3 and is made all the more interesting by the defection of Peddlers Cross from the Grade 1 Arkle on the first day. Mixed messages have consistently been the order of the day during McCain's interrupted preparations for a candidate that quite frankly looked the real deal when he emerged from two straightforward novice chase wins at Bangor. He's not very big you see. Something's not quite right!
I am bemused by McCain's decision.One minute he is advertising the well being of his charge telling all that next time he will serve it up to Sprinter Sacre; the next minute he has switched to a lower class contest. If the beast is not sufficiently forward in his preparation to handle Henderson's admittedly top class animal then, in my humble opinion, he will not be sufficiently forward to win the Jewson either...
Where we gain is that PC is making the market for us! The best piece of form for this contest may well have been posted by Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton Park at the end of February. A Racing Post Rating in excess of 150 inspires confidence. I am sitting smugly on a voucher saying 10s and resisting the temptation to lay in expectation McCain will announce late on a further defection...
I will lay though, at the appropriate time, with my confidence tempered by the appearance of very solid candidates in the next four places in the market - Sir Des Champs (Gold Cup winner of the future perhaps and former Festival winner!), For Non Stop (consistent sort just short of top class), Champion Court (my idea of the best each way value) and Solix (some positive whispers from Seven Barrows heard recently)
So,
Cristal Bonus - back to lay
Champion Court - each way
Peddlers Cross - lay lay lay
Sir Des Champs - Grade 1 potential; likely winner.
Be careful though! Back him in the Non Runner No Bet markets as he is still entered for the RSA Chase. Betfair markets don't really help here; he is popular in both!
The long distance handicap hurdle is next. Sponsored by Pertemps for many years now JP McManus-owned contenders and those from the breeding empire of HH The Aga Khan are always my first port of call. Not the most reliable selection process me thinks but I can't help myself! This theory led me to Tarvini . I am on at fancy prices but he is around No. 70 in the list so it will take a leap of faith to expect him to line up on Thursday.
I have no strong feelings about the outcome here but I would mention David Pipe's Poole Master - you cannot underestimate any of the Pipe runners in the handicaps - if he gets in and if the Nicholashayne operation decides this is the best of its several options for this progressive type...
I expect to back this one wherever it runs...
Also, less dark (if a Pipe-trained handicapper winning its last three races can be described as dark) and a smidgen more exposed is Cape Tribulation who has never quite established himself on one of the top tables. Guaranteed to stay; back him each way on the day with a bookie paying 5 places.
Remember if you are going to Cheltenham don't back with the on-course bookmakers - hit the Confirm button on your laptop and take advantage of the myriad of offers the usual suspects (Ladbrokes etc.) are shouting from the rooftops...
Many shrewd judges keep telling me that Riverside Theatre does not act at Cheltenham. The one piece of evidence submitted by the prosecuting counsel is the 2010 Arkle. You can watch this race on the Sporting Life website. He is hopelessly outpaced early but when he disappears out of site at the point the director concentrates on the leading contenders it is inconceivable that he could possibly finish as close up. Crying out for a step up in trip he is now firmly established as a top class animal. I am in no doubt that he is a Grade 1 horse here in a Grade 2 race and will disprove all Cheltenham theories. Well maybe just one doubt! Henderson's reluctance in allowing RT to run at Cheltenham since; maybe it's just been opportunities. He has, of course, been injured for some of the time since that Arkle performance.
There are a host of potential dangers such as Medermit (likely to start here rather than the oft mooted Gold Cup), Somersby (still entered in the Champion Chase but another Grade 1 horse), Rubi Light (ground a concern) and Noble Prince (last year's Jewson winner and arguably a tad disappointing this season). It's Riverside Theatre for me.
It is difficult to oppose Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. He's won his last 15! One or two have got him at it. I often muse about the prospect of Baracouda (one of my all-time favourite racehorses) lining up against Paul Nicholls' formidable bay/brown gelding. What a race that might have been! Let me know what you think the outcome would have been!
I have staked my largest wager of the Festival on Oscar Whisky each way. I rarely back each way these days but when I do the horse in question has to have a serious chance of winning the contest. There are two principal protagonists here who have yet to compete against the Ditcheat destroyer - OW and So Young and I give them both chances. My suggestion is back them both to win (or each way) in the "betting without Big Bucks market". Those that have faced BB before will again go home destitute with colours lowered...
With Salut Flo (Pipe's well handicapped sort is entered in everything, including the Boat Race) now too short, I will put up 3 that I like in the highly competitive Byrne Group Plate (4pm). Niceonefrankie (needs a few to step down) looks very interesting off a potentially featherweight for the rampant (in-form I might add!) Venetia Williams yard, Notus De La Tour (another Pipe animal - I do like Dan Breen but he struggled to get home over a furlong shorter at flatter Newbury last time) and Divers (winner of the Novices Handicap Chase on the first day last year, trained by a master Festival manipulator in Ferdinand Murphy and with the eyecatching booking of AP)
The amateur-ridden winner of the Kim Muir (I must find out who he was!) is always a tricky affair (and the other races aren't I suppose! Ed.). I suspect that I will be grasping at straws. I have heard good words for Up The Beat (Willie Mullins again!), Becauseicouldntsee (placed in the 4-miler two years ago), Brackloon High (Noel Chance is sweet on its chances I believe!) and Your Busy (given a good word at a Festival Preview night by Ruby and likely to be ridden by sister Katie).
By now the Irish could be smiling - remember earlier in the season I commented upon the potential for the Irish to saddle 13 or more winners. It is still a realistic assertion; this suggestion comes highly recommended. The quality of the Irish team is frightening even without the might of the battalions Bagenalstown - it is not impossible that we will witness double- figure success for Mullins and his team. If Ruby rides for Mullins when he might have ridden for Team Ditcheat in the same race it is surely better than any tip blogsters like me can provide...
---------------------
A quick reprise of Day 1...
I'm still not really sure where my allegiance lies in the Supreme - it looks a really competitive contest. Galileo's Choice may go off as the second Irish challenger in the market though there's still plenty of time for that to change...
Darlan - is it the wrong race? I can't back down now!!! McCoy up. JP's best chance according to the man himself...
Steps To Freedom - long absence statistic to overcome but it was pre-ordained! Mrs Harrington knows what she's doing so not to be underestimated...
Galileo's Choice - another stat. to overcome here with Dermot Weld's shocking record at Cheltenham to defeat. I'm not sure it is relevant but sometimes it is a reflection of a trainer's preferred targets for his horses but surely if Weld had one good enough he'd want to win. In any case, he has commented that Galileo's Choice lacking experience for the hurly-burly of this always competitive contest...
Midnight Game - my preferred. Mullins off to a good start.
Montbazon - working its socks off according to the stable. May be just a little short of the right stuff to win but likely close up...
Cinders And Ashes - the solid one but hasn't run in the calendar year like Steps To Freedom. I think he will come up a little short...
At a price, some have suggested Prospect Wells may rediscover his early season form after a break but he is tied in closely with STF and like Jessica's animal is probably not good enough.
With real uncertainty, Midnight Game to beat home Galileo's Choice and Darlan...
Paddy Power's offer of a refund if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle means we must dutch Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah against him... Cue Card each way still sound but do it before final; declarations because I fear there might be less than 8 runners.
In the JLT, no strong preference - my earlier suggestions Quantitativeeasing (too much weight) and Lie Forrit (not declared) have now been superseded. Want to see the final declarations before committing again. I am coming round to Hold On Julio and Zarrafakt...
I will stand by my initial thinking about the Champion Hurdle, the Mares' Hurdle and the Cross Country Handicap...
In the final race, the Novices' Handicap Chase, Carrickboy looks interesting with Aidan Coleman already declared to ride this one of three Venetia Williams runners near the top of the Racing Post ratings...
--------------------
Finally, expect some changes to the Racehorsing Man blogspot after Grand National weekend. More blogs, more contents, a new Darkwater design, regular systems, tips and trends...
See you tomorrow...
Rm (Mark)
Wednesday, 29 February 2012
Cheltenham 2012
Dear All
The weights for the always riveting handicaps are revealed tomorrow and then we can revisit yesterday's thoughts and load the revolver for the always tricky and equally competitive 3 mile and 2 mile 5 handicap chases on the first day's competition.
Day 2...
Beginning with the gruelling 4-mile novice championship, the National Hunt Chase for Amateur Riders.
Tea For Three and Fists of Fury have been well supported in this market. I prefer the former though worry about the ground.
My other is Allee Garde who might give King Willie of Mullins yet another opportunity to chalk up an early lead for the trainers' title; his 3rd placing in the Fort Leney (Chicago Grey ran there before winning this last year) in December behind Last Instalment and First Lieutenant is the best piece of form in the race...
The Neptune is next and is usually one of the highlights of the four days. This year's contest is positively heaving with possibilities. I am quite sweet on Monksland who I take to emulate his stable's Nicanor (conqueror of the mighty warrior Denman in 2007) by winning against a strong field. I'm sure that Darlan will run in the Supreme but should run here.
The RSA Chase is a ferociously competitive event and so often bottoms its participants in future seasons. There are so many examples - Cooldine for instance didn't go on and it appears to have left its mark on last year's winner Boston's Angel also and others. It is usually (not always, of course) won by an uncomplicated street fighter and not the flashy Florida Pearl types (he, of course, bucked the trend in a small field of also rans seemingly a lifetime ago), So it's Join Together for me - Ruby up will swing it definitely...
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is there for the taking by the reigning champion Sizing Europe but have a little tickle on I'm So Lucky to place as this race seems likely to cut up badly.
The Coral Cup is a minefield but at this stage I take Gordon Elliot's Toner d'Oudaries to win...
I have backed Red Inca thus far in the Fred Winter but will definitely have a second wager nearer the time...
Finally, the Champion Bumper is Ireland's Moscow Mannon versus England's Royal Guardsman with Horatio Hornblower a lively outsider.
Good luck - back soon with the final two days.
It is folly to oppose King Willie in the leading trainer stakes and I'm not going to but Alan King has a serious arsenal of ammunition to fire across his boughs and is worth a punt at big odds for a top trainer...
Happy punting.
Rm(Mark)
The weights for the always riveting handicaps are revealed tomorrow and then we can revisit yesterday's thoughts and load the revolver for the always tricky and equally competitive 3 mile and 2 mile 5 handicap chases on the first day's competition.
Day 2...
Beginning with the gruelling 4-mile novice championship, the National Hunt Chase for Amateur Riders.
Tea For Three and Fists of Fury have been well supported in this market. I prefer the former though worry about the ground.
My other is Allee Garde who might give King Willie of Mullins yet another opportunity to chalk up an early lead for the trainers' title; his 3rd placing in the Fort Leney (Chicago Grey ran there before winning this last year) in December behind Last Instalment and First Lieutenant is the best piece of form in the race...
The Neptune is next and is usually one of the highlights of the four days. This year's contest is positively heaving with possibilities. I am quite sweet on Monksland who I take to emulate his stable's Nicanor (conqueror of the mighty warrior Denman in 2007) by winning against a strong field. I'm sure that Darlan will run in the Supreme but should run here.
The RSA Chase is a ferociously competitive event and so often bottoms its participants in future seasons. There are so many examples - Cooldine for instance didn't go on and it appears to have left its mark on last year's winner Boston's Angel also and others. It is usually (not always, of course) won by an uncomplicated street fighter and not the flashy Florida Pearl types (he, of course, bucked the trend in a small field of also rans seemingly a lifetime ago), So it's Join Together for me - Ruby up will swing it definitely...
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is there for the taking by the reigning champion Sizing Europe but have a little tickle on I'm So Lucky to place as this race seems likely to cut up badly.
The Coral Cup is a minefield but at this stage I take Gordon Elliot's Toner d'Oudaries to win...
I have backed Red Inca thus far in the Fred Winter but will definitely have a second wager nearer the time...
Finally, the Champion Bumper is Ireland's Moscow Mannon versus England's Royal Guardsman with Horatio Hornblower a lively outsider.
Good luck - back soon with the final two days.
It is folly to oppose King Willie in the leading trainer stakes and I'm not going to but Alan King has a serious arsenal of ammunition to fire across his boughs and is worth a punt at big odds for a top trainer...
Happy punting.
Rm(Mark)
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Cheltenham 2012: Day One
Dear All
Will no doubt update these at a later date but these are Racehorsingman's selections at this moment in time; some have been backed, some backed and laid; some missed opportunities and others just downright optimistic...
Day 1:
SUPREME - I have a few fingers in a few pies here. The uncertainty regarding which Henderson inmate runs where. I still think Darlan needs further - Simonsig should run here. The old adage of following the second Irish horse in the betting - so successful over recent years - will lead you to Steps To Freedom - as things stand! Keep and eye out for Midnight Game superseding the Harrington beast.
ARKLE - Sprinter Sacre is too short having not won a race at Cheltenham or even finished 2nd so we have to look elsewhere. Have one of yuor biggest each way bets on Cue Card who will place and might win.
JLT - too early to be dogmatic but I like Quantitativeeasing or QE as Dessie Scahill prefers... and Lie Forrit at a big price.
CHAMPION HURDLE - probably Hurricane Fly but Oscars Well to be closer and Binocular a certainty each way without the favourite or probably even with..! looked back to his best at Wincanton...
CROSS COUNTRY - have backed Scotsirish at 5s but Uncle Junior each way is almost as good a bet as Cue Card
MARES' HURDLE - I can't put up Quevega; she's much too short. If she doesn't win she will be hellishly close to the one that does. I suggest, somewhat tentatively, Kentford Grey Lady...
CENTENARY HANDICAP CHASE - no idea at the moment. I expect Venetia has something up her sleeve as will the Pipes. Maybe Quincey Des Pictons at a reasonable price.
Back tomorrow with my thoughts for the second day...
Rm(Mark)
Will no doubt update these at a later date but these are Racehorsingman's selections at this moment in time; some have been backed, some backed and laid; some missed opportunities and others just downright optimistic...
Day 1:
SUPREME - I have a few fingers in a few pies here. The uncertainty regarding which Henderson inmate runs where. I still think Darlan needs further - Simonsig should run here. The old adage of following the second Irish horse in the betting - so successful over recent years - will lead you to Steps To Freedom - as things stand! Keep and eye out for Midnight Game superseding the Harrington beast.
ARKLE - Sprinter Sacre is too short having not won a race at Cheltenham or even finished 2nd so we have to look elsewhere. Have one of yuor biggest each way bets on Cue Card who will place and might win.
JLT - too early to be dogmatic but I like Quantitativeeasing or QE as Dessie Scahill prefers... and Lie Forrit at a big price.
CHAMPION HURDLE - probably Hurricane Fly but Oscars Well to be closer and Binocular a certainty each way without the favourite or probably even with..! looked back to his best at Wincanton...
CROSS COUNTRY - have backed Scotsirish at 5s but Uncle Junior each way is almost as good a bet as Cue Card
MARES' HURDLE - I can't put up Quevega; she's much too short. If she doesn't win she will be hellishly close to the one that does. I suggest, somewhat tentatively, Kentford Grey Lady...
CENTENARY HANDICAP CHASE - no idea at the moment. I expect Venetia has something up her sleeve as will the Pipes. Maybe Quincey Des Pictons at a reasonable price.
Back tomorrow with my thoughts for the second day...
Rm(Mark)
Thursday, 9 February 2012
Dear All
I couldn't help being drawn in by Paddy Power's offer of 20/1 for all of last year's Championship event winners at the Cheltenham Festival to repeat the dose on the hallowed turf over four days in March.
It was not a serious wager and, I must defend myself by stating quite clearly that I am not ordinarily befuddled by bookmaker offers. Remember! Special offers are usually to the detriment of the punter and to the benefit of Mr Turf Accountant... when a bookie promotes his wares by adding a half point to fancied runner's odds it's not because of a benevolent streak etched into said bookie's bone marrow it's because he doesn't fancy the nag but hopes you do..!
Back to the matter in hand..! This particular offer struck me as one; not gushing forth perhaps but, at least, seeping, a tad of value...
So, where might it fail! I thought it might make an interesting post to discuss the relative merits of the four musketeers!
The one I consider most vulnerable is Hurricane Fly... I have my doubts whether last year's contest was quite as good as it appeared. I'm being a little mischievous here really; fully aware that The Fly is up there with the best during the post-Istabraq years (incidentally - in Swindon where I live there is an office building badged up as Istabraq House! How quaint!) The time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was a little quicker than the Champion over the same course on the same day on the same going; Peddlers' Cross has been somewhat disappointing since bringing into question not whether the form is of any value but more that it may not have been quite as compelling as it seemed at first light!
I doubt there is anything in the likely field that will blow down the Hurricane but he may bounce (only one run in two hundred plus days)... the great unknown is Zarkandar, completely unexposed and, like the reigning champion, imbued with regal blood - and the dependably solid Oscars Well who will improve, I believe, for better ground and Cheltenham's unique configuration...
Big Bucks is next! Sacrilege I know to suggest; to even contemplate defeat for this most champion of champions - almost all of the greats are beaten eventually though! Chances are it will happen on the biggest, most theatrical of stages, in the cauldron of Prestbury Park when all present are waiting; gripped by the anticipation of history being created or by the vaguely crumpled betting voucher bearing the inscription TO WIN sat snugly alongside the words So Young as the Mullins' young pretender draws alongside the champion shortly before the final obstacle...
My reasoning is simple - there will be at least three high class animals; unexposed at the trip; challenging the reigning champion; namely Oscar Whisky (needs to prove he will stay - think he will!), the aforementioned So Young and the returning prodigal son, Mikael D'Haguenet - a former sun of March poetry! He is no longer setting wearily to the West but instead is rising imperiously again above the horizon!
Next is Long Run - last year's champion staying chaser - looks even more of a stayer this year. The mighty Kauto has outjumped the young pretender; Ruby has dazzled with his horsemanship aboard this noble warrior; the dentist has appeared toothless in comparison... despite this though it is a race for stayers; Kauto's record at Cheltenham, although splendid, is not as splendid as it is at Kempton or at Haydock... it demands much of this speedy French-bred sort. I think the Waley-Cohen's will exact their revenge on Team Ditcheat...
The most likely repeat success will, in my opinion, be that of Sizing Europe. I am happy to lay the eleven year-old Big Zeb for a place; Finian's Rainbow does not appear in love with Prestbury Park; may lack a gear when push comes to shove; the rest are just not in the same stratosphere. Any price of odds against is tremendous value; he will win..!.
So having wagered in favour of the four superstars here's my sporting alternative
Oscars Well in the Champion Hurdle
Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase
So Young in the World Hurdle
Long Run in the Gold Cup
Speak soon
Rm(Mark)
I couldn't help being drawn in by Paddy Power's offer of 20/1 for all of last year's Championship event winners at the Cheltenham Festival to repeat the dose on the hallowed turf over four days in March.
It was not a serious wager and, I must defend myself by stating quite clearly that I am not ordinarily befuddled by bookmaker offers. Remember! Special offers are usually to the detriment of the punter and to the benefit of Mr Turf Accountant... when a bookie promotes his wares by adding a half point to fancied runner's odds it's not because of a benevolent streak etched into said bookie's bone marrow it's because he doesn't fancy the nag but hopes you do..!
Back to the matter in hand..! This particular offer struck me as one; not gushing forth perhaps but, at least, seeping, a tad of value...
So, where might it fail! I thought it might make an interesting post to discuss the relative merits of the four musketeers!
The one I consider most vulnerable is Hurricane Fly... I have my doubts whether last year's contest was quite as good as it appeared. I'm being a little mischievous here really; fully aware that The Fly is up there with the best during the post-Istabraq years (incidentally - in Swindon where I live there is an office building badged up as Istabraq House! How quaint!) The time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was a little quicker than the Champion over the same course on the same day on the same going; Peddlers' Cross has been somewhat disappointing since bringing into question not whether the form is of any value but more that it may not have been quite as compelling as it seemed at first light!
I doubt there is anything in the likely field that will blow down the Hurricane but he may bounce (only one run in two hundred plus days)... the great unknown is Zarkandar, completely unexposed and, like the reigning champion, imbued with regal blood - and the dependably solid Oscars Well who will improve, I believe, for better ground and Cheltenham's unique configuration...
Big Bucks is next! Sacrilege I know to suggest; to even contemplate defeat for this most champion of champions - almost all of the greats are beaten eventually though! Chances are it will happen on the biggest, most theatrical of stages, in the cauldron of Prestbury Park when all present are waiting; gripped by the anticipation of history being created or by the vaguely crumpled betting voucher bearing the inscription TO WIN sat snugly alongside the words So Young as the Mullins' young pretender draws alongside the champion shortly before the final obstacle...
My reasoning is simple - there will be at least three high class animals; unexposed at the trip; challenging the reigning champion; namely Oscar Whisky (needs to prove he will stay - think he will!), the aforementioned So Young and the returning prodigal son, Mikael D'Haguenet - a former sun of March poetry! He is no longer setting wearily to the West but instead is rising imperiously again above the horizon!
Next is Long Run - last year's champion staying chaser - looks even more of a stayer this year. The mighty Kauto has outjumped the young pretender; Ruby has dazzled with his horsemanship aboard this noble warrior; the dentist has appeared toothless in comparison... despite this though it is a race for stayers; Kauto's record at Cheltenham, although splendid, is not as splendid as it is at Kempton or at Haydock... it demands much of this speedy French-bred sort. I think the Waley-Cohen's will exact their revenge on Team Ditcheat...
The most likely repeat success will, in my opinion, be that of Sizing Europe. I am happy to lay the eleven year-old Big Zeb for a place; Finian's Rainbow does not appear in love with Prestbury Park; may lack a gear when push comes to shove; the rest are just not in the same stratosphere. Any price of odds against is tremendous value; he will win..!.
So having wagered in favour of the four superstars here's my sporting alternative
Oscars Well in the Champion Hurdle
Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase
So Young in the World Hurdle
Long Run in the Gold Cup
Speak soon
Rm(Mark)
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Green with Envy the Sequel...
Dear All
I decided to park taking an informed view of the Irish challenge in the absence of sufficient collateral form. Contests in the last seven days have focussed my thoughtpatterns so now I am ready to step forward and show my hand...
The first is Scotsirish - with Spotthedifference a distant memory; the magical powers of Garde Champetre on the wain and the apparent absence of credible competition this specialist over the intermediate distance (but stays further) has the oyster's world at his fingertips in the Cross Country disciplines. Stablemate Uncle Junior is likely to prove his closest foe!
The second is Sizing Europe - he comes alive at Cheltenham. I think he will have the edge on Big Zeb again whilst the younger element look a little short of the desired status to win what is always the most fiercely contested two-mile graded chase of any season... I expect SE to win by a clear margin...
The third of the quartet is Lambro. Have a look at its run behind Flemenstar last time over a vastly inadequate 2-miles? The son of Milan is essentially unexposed over the longer trip. Willie Mullins has been making the right noises.
I have already plunged a few quid on at fancy prices and hope against hope that the Master of Closutton sees fit to pay for its passage across the Irish Sea. Might be best to wait for those bookies offering Non-Runner No Bet on the Novice Chases before shelling out your hard-earned on this one's prospects in the RSA Chase.
The fourth and final selection is even darker - Moscow Mannon is the likeliest winner of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper this year. The battalions will be out in force from the Mullins yard. I always look for an Irish-trained contender from a smaller yard in the bumper so step forward Brian Hamilton. I wonder if a Northern Irishman has ever trained the winner of a race at the Festival. I expect so?
Bear this in mind. Cue Card thrashed the opposition, including the hugely talented and subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, out of sight in the 2010 renewal achieving an RPR of 138 in the process. Cheltenian only mustered the same mark last year. These were two big-field contests run at Festival speed. Moscow Mannon's last outing in a 7-runner field (beating Mullins's Morning Royalty) was awarded an RPR of 136. His participation is still in some doubt but he most certainly will not be 16s on the day...
There you have it - a Yankee to change your life... the roar of the opening day is closing in onus like an electrical storm... I simply can't wait..!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
I decided to park taking an informed view of the Irish challenge in the absence of sufficient collateral form. Contests in the last seven days have focussed my thoughtpatterns so now I am ready to step forward and show my hand...
The first is Scotsirish - with Spotthedifference a distant memory; the magical powers of Garde Champetre on the wain and the apparent absence of credible competition this specialist over the intermediate distance (but stays further) has the oyster's world at his fingertips in the Cross Country disciplines. Stablemate Uncle Junior is likely to prove his closest foe!
The second is Sizing Europe - he comes alive at Cheltenham. I think he will have the edge on Big Zeb again whilst the younger element look a little short of the desired status to win what is always the most fiercely contested two-mile graded chase of any season... I expect SE to win by a clear margin...
The third of the quartet is Lambro. Have a look at its run behind Flemenstar last time over a vastly inadequate 2-miles? The son of Milan is essentially unexposed over the longer trip. Willie Mullins has been making the right noises.
I have already plunged a few quid on at fancy prices and hope against hope that the Master of Closutton sees fit to pay for its passage across the Irish Sea. Might be best to wait for those bookies offering Non-Runner No Bet on the Novice Chases before shelling out your hard-earned on this one's prospects in the RSA Chase.
The fourth and final selection is even darker - Moscow Mannon is the likeliest winner of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper this year. The battalions will be out in force from the Mullins yard. I always look for an Irish-trained contender from a smaller yard in the bumper so step forward Brian Hamilton. I wonder if a Northern Irishman has ever trained the winner of a race at the Festival. I expect so?
Bear this in mind. Cue Card thrashed the opposition, including the hugely talented and subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, out of sight in the 2010 renewal achieving an RPR of 138 in the process. Cheltenian only mustered the same mark last year. These were two big-field contests run at Festival speed. Moscow Mannon's last outing in a 7-runner field (beating Mullins's Morning Royalty) was awarded an RPR of 136. His participation is still in some doubt but he most certainly will not be 16s on the day...
There you have it - a Yankee to change your life... the roar of the opening day is closing in onus like an electrical storm... I simply can't wait..!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Sunday, 22 January 2012
Green with Envy...
Dear All
There is a serious challenge heading inexorably to these shores from across the Irish Sea; a mighty presence will be felt...
The clans are gathering... if you only place one wager during the upcoming Cheltenham Festival week make sure it's one of those occasionally riveting novelty bets; you know the one that asks you to predict the number of winners trained at the Festival in Ireland.
I seriously expect this number to exceed 11 and maybe even 12 or 13; so strong does the Irish contingent breathe heavily its well-being when one examines the bookies' ante post lists.
These are my initial thoughts:
Hurricane Fly: So Young: Monksland: Sea of Thunder: Lambro: First Lieutenant: Sir Des Champs: Sizing Europe: Un Atout: Quevega: Scotsirish: Noble Prince: Rubi Light: That's a baker's dozen to be going on with; none of them particularly dark! One or two of them in the same race of course!
We haven't, as yet, pencilled in contenders for the Fred Winter, the Martin Pipe, the 4-miler, the Grand Annual, the Kim Muir, what was once known as the William Hill, the Pertemps, the County Hurdle or the Coral Cup...
Phew! This is getting serious; reckon I should look for odds for 15+ winners...
We haven't yet mentioned First Instalment, Hidden Cyclone, Terminal, Thousand Stars, Oscars Well, Jessies Dream; Steps To Freedom, Mount Benbulben, Sous Les Cieux, Ut De Sivola, Bog Warrior, Big Zeb, Voler La Vedette, Mikael d'Haguenet, Rathlin, Our Girl Salley, Garde Champetre, Bostons Angel. The list is seemingly endless...
Tomorrow I will identify 4 Irish Trained horses not to be missed...
Happy punting
Rm(M)
There is a serious challenge heading inexorably to these shores from across the Irish Sea; a mighty presence will be felt...
The clans are gathering... if you only place one wager during the upcoming Cheltenham Festival week make sure it's one of those occasionally riveting novelty bets; you know the one that asks you to predict the number of winners trained at the Festival in Ireland.
I seriously expect this number to exceed 11 and maybe even 12 or 13; so strong does the Irish contingent breathe heavily its well-being when one examines the bookies' ante post lists.
These are my initial thoughts:
Hurricane Fly: So Young: Monksland: Sea of Thunder: Lambro: First Lieutenant: Sir Des Champs: Sizing Europe: Un Atout: Quevega: Scotsirish: Noble Prince: Rubi Light: That's a baker's dozen to be going on with; none of them particularly dark! One or two of them in the same race of course!
We haven't, as yet, pencilled in contenders for the Fred Winter, the Martin Pipe, the 4-miler, the Grand Annual, the Kim Muir, what was once known as the William Hill, the Pertemps, the County Hurdle or the Coral Cup...
Phew! This is getting serious; reckon I should look for odds for 15+ winners...
We haven't yet mentioned First Instalment, Hidden Cyclone, Terminal, Thousand Stars, Oscars Well, Jessies Dream; Steps To Freedom, Mount Benbulben, Sous Les Cieux, Ut De Sivola, Bog Warrior, Big Zeb, Voler La Vedette, Mikael d'Haguenet, Rathlin, Our Girl Salley, Garde Champetre, Bostons Angel. The list is seemingly endless...
Tomorrow I will identify 4 Irish Trained horses not to be missed...
Happy punting
Rm(M)
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