Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Green with Envy the Sequel...

Dear All

I decided to park taking an informed view of the Irish challenge in the absence of sufficient collateral form. Contests in the last seven days have focussed my thoughtpatterns so now I am ready to step forward and show my hand...

The first is Scotsirish - with Spotthedifference a distant memory; the magical powers of Garde Champetre on the wain and the apparent absence of credible competition this specialist over the intermediate distance (but stays further) has the oyster's world at his fingertips in the Cross Country disciplines. Stablemate Uncle Junior is likely to prove his closest foe!

The second is Sizing Europe - he comes alive at Cheltenham. I think he will have the edge on Big Zeb again whilst the younger element look a little short of the desired status to win what is always the most fiercely contested two-mile graded chase of any season... I expect SE to win by a clear margin...

The third of the quartet is Lambro. Have a look at its run behind Flemenstar last time over a vastly inadequate 2-miles? The son of Milan is essentially unexposed over the longer trip. Willie Mullins has been making the right noises.

I have already plunged a few quid on at fancy prices and hope against hope that the Master of Closutton sees fit to pay for its passage across the Irish Sea. Might be best to wait for those bookies offering Non-Runner No Bet on the Novice Chases before shelling out your hard-earned on this one's prospects in the RSA Chase.

The fourth and final selection is even darker - Moscow Mannon is the likeliest winner of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper this year. The battalions will be out in force from the Mullins yard. I always look for an Irish-trained contender from a smaller yard in the bumper so step forward Brian Hamilton. I wonder if a Northern Irishman has ever trained the winner of a race at the Festival. I expect so?

Bear this in mind. Cue Card thrashed the opposition, including the hugely talented and subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, out of sight in the 2010 renewal achieving an RPR of 138 in the process. Cheltenian only mustered the same mark last year. These were two big-field contests run at Festival speed. Moscow Mannon's last outing in a 7-runner field (beating Mullins's Morning Royalty) was awarded an RPR of 136. His participation is still in some doubt but he most certainly will not be 16s on the day...

There you have it - a Yankee to change your life... the roar of the opening day is closing in onus like an electrical storm... I simply can't wait..!

Happy punting!

Rm(M)

Sunday, 22 January 2012

Green with Envy...

Dear All

There is a serious challenge heading inexorably to these shores from across the Irish Sea; a mighty presence will be felt...

The clans are gathering... if you only place one wager during the upcoming Cheltenham Festival week make sure it's one of those occasionally riveting novelty bets; you know the one that asks you to predict the number of winners trained at the Festival in Ireland.

I seriously expect this number to exceed 11 and maybe even 12 or 13; so strong does the Irish contingent breathe heavily its well-being when one examines the bookies' ante post lists.

These are my initial thoughts:

Hurricane Fly: So Young: Monksland: Sea of Thunder: Lambro: First Lieutenant: Sir Des Champs: Sizing Europe: Un Atout: Quevega: Scotsirish: Noble Prince: Rubi Light: That's a baker's dozen to be going on with; none of them particularly dark! One or two of them in the same race of course!

We haven't, as yet, pencilled in contenders for the Fred Winter, the Martin Pipe, the 4-miler, the Grand Annual, the Kim Muir, what was once known as the William Hill, the Pertemps, the County Hurdle or the Coral Cup...

Phew! This is getting serious; reckon I should look for odds for 15+ winners...

We haven't yet mentioned First Instalment, Hidden Cyclone, Terminal, Thousand Stars, Oscars Well, Jessies Dream; Steps To Freedom, Mount Benbulben, Sous Les Cieux, Ut De Sivola, Bog Warrior, Big Zeb, Voler La Vedette, Mikael d'Haguenet, Rathlin, Our Girl Salley, Garde Champetre, Bostons Angel. The list is seemingly endless...

Tomorrow I will identify 4 Irish Trained horses not to be missed...

Happy punting

Rm(M)

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Festival Fever..!

Happy New Year to you all.

As the final trimmings are packed away in the loft our thoughts turn both inevitably and insatiably towards the second Tuesday in mid-March when the Cheltenham roar will echo across the majestic outcrop of limestone known as Cleeve Hill...

For some of us, Cheltenham is in our blood and in our DNA; lodged like a bullet in our brains and even occasionally disturbing our sleep patterns...

So it seems appropriate to undertake a mid-term review and a look forward to the centrepiece of the National Hunt season...

I am delighted that one or two of my suggestions for high honours this season are progressing nicely. You all know how enthusiastic I am about Darlan. He didn't disappoint earlier today at Taunton; travelling sweetly on the bridle the whole way round. He didn't though strike me as a winner of a Supreme Novices' Hurdle. I still urge caution. 14/1 best price now after this comfortable success.

Seven Barrows houses any number of potential candidates for both the Supreme and the Neptune; the latter though tends to be the natural bedfellow of the traditional jumps-bred animal.At the moment, the yard houses Tetlami, Molotov, Mono Man, Broadbackbob and Let's Get Serious amongst others but, of more interest to this correspondent, are the hitherto mentioned Darlan plus Ericht (we have yet to see the best of this son of Alderbrook) and Captain Conan (who made his debut at Sandown Park in the novice hurdle in which Minella Class - Henderson's Neptune entry in 2011 - was victorious last year). A French import, he didn't appear to be blessed with instant acceleration; surely a stayer in the making...

Maintaining the Henderson theme, I was very sweet on Sprinter Sacre before the season started. He really is the most gorgeous looking specimen... a good big'un will almost always be a good little'un so they say! I think that saying originates in pugilistic parlance but could quite easily apply amongst prized horseflesh too! And so it came to pass that on Kempton's flat speed track configuration the SS battered Peddler's Cross ("unbeatable" Arkle favourite) into raw submission...

I am worried though!

It appears that Henderson only runs Finian's Rainbow at Cheltenham when it is absolutely necessary (beaten twice at the Festival - only two outings at the course) and it may be that he shares a similar opinion of the German-bred gelding...I think PC might turn the tables on SS up the hill at the Festival but suspect something else will come from left field or maybe it will be the highly touted Al Ferof who will emerge triumphant.He commands enormous respect in these quarters...

Tomorrow I will switch my attention to Ireland and its challenge, I predict here and now that our friends from across the Irish Sea will collect at least twelve gold medals in March...

As a precursor, I will leave you though with three outstanding prospects - all trained by the Master of Muine Beag - Lambro, Soll and Darroun - surefire winners and probably at the top table also. Watch the videotape of these three's last time out course appearances; none of the three managed to place its head into the winner's enclosure but they will; of that you can be sure... Lambro is a budding superstar who didn't have the pace to match Monksland at the weekend but, stepped back up in trip, he will be awesome!

Happy punting!

Rm(Mark)

Monday, 12 December 2011

Darlan darling..!

Dear All

I'm not having it that Darlan is not a superstar in waiting...

Perfectly accept that his performance at Cheltenham didn't scream out championship class but he did win when perhaps he shouldn't have done!

Most telling of all though is the beast's breeding! A son of Milan whose progeny run frequently in bumpers and from a delicious Aga Khan bloodline, he will improve immeasurably for a step up in trip. Milan's progeny do not appear blessed with lightning acceleration (though not devoid of pace) so the Baring Bingham or perhaps the Albert Bartlett race will see the Nicky Henderson inmate in better light!

The lack of certainly about in which contest he will strut his undeniably potent stuff is all that prevents this blogger from emptying his piggy bank completely...

You mark my words!

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Happy retirements are coming thick and fast in the sporting world none so more than us equine lovers! Denman, The Tank, to his many devout disciples, is the latest to enter into honourable old age with slippers and pipe under his arm...

I'm not convinced that his record of 10 wins from 17 starts allows him the status of superstar. Nevertheless his legacy will be long lived and some of his performances were utterly formidable. He was a fearsome brute of a horse that frequently pulverised his opponents into total submission; Joe Frazier to Kauto's silkier, more eloquent Cassius Clay! His outstanding performances in two Hennessy Gold Cups are etched in the memory forever!

Long live the Tank!


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Three to catch the eye recently.

For Non Stop - always been a useful sort but somehow success of any significance has escaped him; now seemingly established as a chaser he has any amount of scope and is destined to achieve some impressive results in the coming months (Nick Williams).

Oscargo - oozed class in a, perhaps less than competitive, handicap hurdle at Cheltenham's December Friday. For one so inexperienced (only his third start), he travelled supremely in behind first the Evan Williams-trained Di Kaprio, and then, as that one tired and faded,others such as Kayf Aramis and Los Nadis; he looks a real stayer; could be anything over fences (Paul Nicholls)...

A less obvious contender is Badger Foot, from the ever-improving Lucinda Russell yard. Shrewd Lucinda's string regularly flirt with the more sophisticated entries at the Southern tracks and in this stoutly bred Beneficial gelding she has a prospect with time on its side; the distance over which he travelled last Friday was patently lacking the true stamina test he needs and, stepped up to three miles and beyond, he will win races... he was spotted running on with immense purpose , under useful conditional Grant Cockburn, behind winner Night Alliance...

Happy punting!

Rm(Mark)

Monday, 21 November 2011

Cheltenham Fancy...

Dear All

Today I have backed Days Hotel for the 2012 Arkle Challenge Trophy. These are my reasons - all absolutely vital when looking for a Festival winner:

Size and stamp;
Jumping prowess;
Ability to travel;
Trainer with form in race
A winner

One missing tick on CV is the lack of a positive run at Cheltenham... maybe Mr De Bromhead will size (just my little joke!) up the opposition later in the season and add that missing tick... if he does I will be topping up..!

The winners are flowing right now - Mr Moonshine, Super Duty and Darlan all giving maximum encouragement recently... more to follow!

Happy punting!

Rm (Mark)

Thursday, 10 November 2011

Dear All

As promised, I have spotted six likely sorts to keep onside for the foreseeable future; one of them will now be put away until the new Flat season rolls back into view in early Springtime...

The first a novice to follow from the McCain yard - Super Duty - had already won a decent bumper on racecourse debut at Donald McCain's old stamping ground, Bangor-on-Dee. On this day, at one of my favourite tracks for identifying young talent, Carlisle, this grand stamp of a chaser achieved an outstanding RPR of 136 on his hurdling debut pulling 17-lengths clear of some useful types. Watch the video!

The second a fancy for the Paddy Power - there is an infectiousness about the confidence of David Bridgwater and Tom Scudamore about The Giant Bolster's chances in Saturday's big 2 and a half mile handicap. There is definitely more to come from this Black Sam Bellamy gelding. He ran in what I believe will prove to be a highly significant 3-mile + Novice Chase at Aintree back in April; a contest won by Quito De la Roque (winner of the G2 JN wine Chase at Down Royal last Saturday) who was followed home by Sarando (more of him later). The step back in trip will suit and a big run is expected...

The third a Ballydoyle inmate to keep the flames burning through the long, winter evenings is Twirl. She was strikingly impressive when winning an 18-runner maiden at Leopardstown by 6 and a half lengths on the final day of the Irish Flat season. Another daughter of the mighty Galileo; she exudes class; the Ballydoyle juveniles look a bit useful this season. She is unsurprisingly entered in next year's Irish Guineas and Irish Oaks...

The fourth an early Hennessy selection - the aforementioned Sarando - looks a tad under-rated even after his impressive seasonal debut in a Graduation Chase at Carlisle beating the promising Aikman with a large degree of comfort... I had taken some decent prices for the big about the Hernando gelding for the big Newbury handicap, even before this contest, with a view to laying off. In my humble opinion this one will be a serious contender on 26th November if he can lie up with the early pace; stamina is not in doubt...

The fifth a staying chaser primed for 2012 Festival glory perhaps - Sue and Harvey Smith's chasers are schooled until failure is not an option. The stable has come out of the blocks flying this season; the horses appear healthy and Mr Moonshine is my idea of this season's RSA Chase winner even at this early stage.
Another to have performed admirably at Carlisle recently; he was relentlessly backed into second favouritism on the day and left Charlie Longsdon's Hidden Keel (the apple of his eye it would seem!) toiling in its wake; achieving an RPR of 150. Comments from the Smith yard suggest that any amount of improvement is expected when the Double Eclipse gelding steps up to 3 miles - he ran several times at the distance over hurdles...

Fnally, the sixth - much darker but showing immense promise during last weekend's Wincanton fixture is Theatrical Star...Having won a Class 4 Novice Hurdle last month over 20 furlongs (not a maiden as I erroneously stated in yesterday's post) - clearly improving for the step up in trip - this imposing son of King's Theatre out of an Ardross mare (therefore sumptuously bred for chasing!) was never going to be suited to dropping back to the minimum trip and finished a promising 4th behind some useful (and speedier sorts) last weekend including Molatof who has form with the best of last term's Triumph Hurdlers...
The Tizzards have yet to hit form this season but when they do Theatrical Star is going to be one of the yard's flagship performers and may well be a player in one or other of the two Festival staying novice hurdles...

I hope these serve you well. Keep them in mind!

Happy punting...

Rm(Mark)

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Dear All

I haven't commented on the current whip furore preferring to keep my counsel principally because my love of this great game doesn't mean I know one jot about the physiology of the thoroughbred! So how much physical damage a stroke of the whip does to a horse's skin I really don't know.

At the moment the high-profile bans imposed on racing gods such as Ruby and AP have raised the profile of the issue even further. These leading exponents of horsemanship cannot surely be expected, in the heat of battle, to count the aggregation of strikes in the final furlong when riding furiously for their lives.

It is a farcical situation and must be resolved. Either, those who judge must use their honed judgement, rather than numerical measurement, to determine if unnecessary brutality has been used in lifting a horse to even greater effort or perhaps the authorities need to take the momentous decision of banning the whip altogether!

Enough said!

There are four outstanding minds currently plying their trade online and helping people like you and me make informed decisions.

Nick Pullen whose copy is published by Oxfordshire Press under the brand names of Racing Angles and Horse Racing Focus. Nick's copy is expertly crafted, incisive, well-researched; extolling the virtue of value and most of all packed with winning opportunities. This is quality stuff!
Nick's raison d'etre is profiling; identifying a shortlist of potential race winners based upon his highest-rated top 30 performances in the race...
Yes it's a subscription service but you will pay for the fee many times over; I guarantee it!

Gavin Priestley is the brains behind Festival Trends and Trainer Track Stats (TTS) through his blog Nag-Nag-Nag
Gavin's stuff defies belief. So much hard work number crunching and historical fact goes into creating a mindblowing array of race trend analysis. There is a modicum of profiling also plus Gavin's own Nag Ratings.
The TTS is based upon profitable trainer performance at each of the jump racing tracks; for a small fee you can receive the qualifiers daily. I strongly recommend Gavin's work; plenty of free copy also...

Richard Stoddart and his chums are Bet Catalyst Totally different approach - prepare for long losing runs but when you win you will win big. Catalyst is constantly seeking out the holy grail of the 50/1 winner and doesn't shirk a challenge. It is much more of a pure tipping site; there is no fancy analysis but the beauty is in its simplicity!
If you want some guy telling you to have a 4-point win bet on a horse which, upon further inspection, is trading just over even money then forget Catalyst. It's not for you. I have nailed my colours to the Catalyst mast. Can't wait for the new website and a tad more diversity but this site is a winner with me...

Finally, Ben Aitken on his Narrowing The Field site and his is from the Gavin Priestley school of hard work. Painstaking research goes into his dosage profiling; trends recording, pedigree analysis etc. covering all of the principal races He also identifies profitable angles showing trainers' competency in getting their horses back on the track after a 90-day or more absence.
Subscription service but good value; my own view is that Ben has a deeper knowledge of the jumps game so now is the time to get on board. You will make money. Like Gavin, there are many articles published free of charge.

Tomorrow - six to keep onside

The first a novice to follow from the McCain yard
The second a fancy for the Paddy Power
The third a Ballydoyle inmate to keep the flames burning through the long, winter evenings...
The fourth an early Hennessy selection
The fifth a staying chaser primed for 2012 Festival glory perhaps
The sixth - much darker; still a maiden but immense promise from last weekend's Wincanton fixture...

Happy punting!

Rm(Mark)