Dear All
The two cards offered by Doncaster thus far this week have been very disappointing from a punting perspective. I have seen little to whet my appetite.
I did back Fallen Idol yesterday in the 10-furlong Conditions race. I was reasonably confident without being adamant of success figuring that its uppermost position on rating and speed; its hailing from the in-form Doncaster specialist, Johnny G (and Billy B) and the absence of especially credible opposition would hold sway. The beast finished fast(ish) and late but to no avail; was even squeezed out of the places... maybe he does prefer Esher!
Today, I have gone all green; Irish Green that is and backed Alanza in the Sceptre (13:55) and included Sense of Purpose (Park Hill - 15:00) in an each way trixie with Dever Dream and Betty Fontaine - none of which are my own work!
Yesterday. I noticed something interesting. I love angles! Good old form following is fruitful and fulfilling (alliteration as well!) but sinking your gnashers into a good old fashioned angle unearthed late in the evening when the coffee is flowing, all around you are snoring and one by one friends on Facebook resort to slumber in enforced preference to social study!
Whist recording the latest batch of System Qualifiers for my GG-list (let's call them SQs) I observed that Humidor had been pulled out of a race at Leicester on Tuesday and then, the very next day, won a handicap at Donny at the juicy odds of 14s. Now the Racing Post supplies at the end of each day both an Index of Runners and an Index of Non-Runners. I am going to look at this angle and see if it creates wealth... more to follow!
Best wishes to Jimmy Derham who suffered a heavy fall at Uttoxeter yesterday. Twitter was twittering long into yesterday evening, especially Daz Jacob, keeping us all informed of Jimmy's condition. It seemed like things were improving when I signed off...fingers crossed!
Wincanton on Bonfire Night is just round the corner. Enter stage right The Slug, Slug's dad, The Snail, The Blind Man and Racehorsing Man; a motley crew indeed!
More later!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Thursday, 8 September 2011
Monday, 5 September 2011
Milan not Rome...
Dear All
I asked the brilliant Ben Aitken to help me examine the record in bumpers of the Coolmore National Hunt Stallion, MILAN I have a hunch this gorgeously bred colt (by Sadler's Wells out of Kithanga; a daughter of Darshaan) is going to be the next big thing following in the footsteps of such as Supreme Leader, Be My Native, Flemensfirth, Presenting, Oscar and King's Theatre.
The bare figures are this:
43 winners from 324 runners | 13% S/R | +£107.38 Betfair SP / -£17.52 Industry SP
These are not bad figures. A cursory glance reveal that it's slightly more advantageous to concentrate on Milan's UK runners (better Strike Rate and Return on Investment). If backing blind then it would appear essential to follow Betfair.
Will try and delve a little deeper into these numbers although I am conscious that the collective sample is limited. There are one or two other National Hunt stallions which interest me also.
Once again, thanks Ben.
Ben's blog - Narrowing The Field - is one of those rare nuggets that those of us who love the science of horse race analysis so exciting (yes we do!). Those stellar individuals like Nick Mordin, James Willoughby and Gavin Priestley . are of a similar ilk and a must read for students of the game...
Today, I wagered an each way treble. Circus Clown (a running on 3rd), Allterrain (a game 2nd) and Seeking Magic (well-handicapped) but not quite well enough. Look out for The former over hurdles in the Winter; staying is his game.
Slight deviation this evening. Take a look at John and Rosie's photographic imagery and Website design ideas. Well worth it!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
I asked the brilliant Ben Aitken to help me examine the record in bumpers of the Coolmore National Hunt Stallion, MILAN I have a hunch this gorgeously bred colt (by Sadler's Wells out of Kithanga; a daughter of Darshaan) is going to be the next big thing following in the footsteps of such as Supreme Leader, Be My Native, Flemensfirth, Presenting, Oscar and King's Theatre.
The bare figures are this:
43 winners from 324 runners | 13% S/R | +£107.38 Betfair SP / -£17.52 Industry SP
These are not bad figures. A cursory glance reveal that it's slightly more advantageous to concentrate on Milan's UK runners (better Strike Rate and Return on Investment). If backing blind then it would appear essential to follow Betfair.
Will try and delve a little deeper into these numbers although I am conscious that the collective sample is limited. There are one or two other National Hunt stallions which interest me also.
Once again, thanks Ben.
Ben's blog - Narrowing The Field - is one of those rare nuggets that those of us who love the science of horse race analysis so exciting (yes we do!). Those stellar individuals like Nick Mordin, James Willoughby and Gavin Priestley . are of a similar ilk and a must read for students of the game...
Today, I wagered an each way treble. Circus Clown (a running on 3rd), Allterrain (a game 2nd) and Seeking Magic (well-handicapped) but not quite well enough. Look out for The former over hurdles in the Winter; staying is his game.
Slight deviation this evening. Take a look at John and Rosie's photographic imagery and Website design ideas. Well worth it!
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Tuesday, 30 August 2011
Poetry Gratis...
Dear All
I hope some of you collected on Rossvoss in the last at Galway today. I didn't!
It was a good example of being intoxicated by a big yard... it was a maiden race and, as you will know by now, these types of contest are one of my favourite disciplines. The RPRs suggested to me that the fancied runners were unlikely winners.
Poinsettia was interesting to me because first and foremost she was trained at Ballydoyle, there was good form from an earlier outing which achieved an 80+ RPR and, importantly, the odds were juicy... I thought a winning angle had been discovered. She had though run only 5 days earlier and was pulled up; a reappearance after such a short time, having been pulled up, indicated to me that there was no injury. Today was the day!
Nevertheless, I was concerned that the price was continuously getting bigger. Poinsettia was well beaten; finishing a distant last of nine runners.
Rossvoss, on the other hand, had the following numbers sgainst his name 6856 and on the face of it and being from an unfashionable yard (at least in Flat racing terms) was not a betting prospect. Delve deeper into the numbers though and a more compelling argument could be formed. Look at the quality of the races he appeared in as a juvenile, albeit, some way back. The yard obviously believed the colt to have some ability. He was a close-up 5th in the Beresford Stakes, a highly respected Derby trial. These contests enabled him to post the best RPR of any runner in today's race.
A chance missed!
Tomorrow, I have unearthed - not a particularly startling discovery - a little nugget at Goodwood. Watch the Racing Post videos of the two efforts posted by Free Verse (owned by The Queen)and be impressed by her winning debut performance over 6-furlongs at Windsor. The drop down to 5-furlongs was probably not in her favour next time up in class in the Listed St Hugh's Stakes at Newbury but I suspect the draw was more significant. The first 3 home that day were in stalls 2,5 and 1. Free Verse was drawn 14 and never got into contention.
Tomorrow she looks a good thing on her Nursery debut at Goodwood; joint top RPR and clear Topspeed. I have already backed her at 4s with Bet365 buoyed by the excellent record of Hannon and Hughes at the course.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
I hope some of you collected on Rossvoss in the last at Galway today. I didn't!
It was a good example of being intoxicated by a big yard... it was a maiden race and, as you will know by now, these types of contest are one of my favourite disciplines. The RPRs suggested to me that the fancied runners were unlikely winners.
Poinsettia was interesting to me because first and foremost she was trained at Ballydoyle, there was good form from an earlier outing which achieved an 80+ RPR and, importantly, the odds were juicy... I thought a winning angle had been discovered. She had though run only 5 days earlier and was pulled up; a reappearance after such a short time, having been pulled up, indicated to me that there was no injury. Today was the day!
Nevertheless, I was concerned that the price was continuously getting bigger. Poinsettia was well beaten; finishing a distant last of nine runners.
Rossvoss, on the other hand, had the following numbers sgainst his name 6856 and on the face of it and being from an unfashionable yard (at least in Flat racing terms) was not a betting prospect. Delve deeper into the numbers though and a more compelling argument could be formed. Look at the quality of the races he appeared in as a juvenile, albeit, some way back. The yard obviously believed the colt to have some ability. He was a close-up 5th in the Beresford Stakes, a highly respected Derby trial. These contests enabled him to post the best RPR of any runner in today's race.
A chance missed!
Tomorrow, I have unearthed - not a particularly startling discovery - a little nugget at Goodwood. Watch the Racing Post videos of the two efforts posted by Free Verse (owned by The Queen)and be impressed by her winning debut performance over 6-furlongs at Windsor. The drop down to 5-furlongs was probably not in her favour next time up in class in the Listed St Hugh's Stakes at Newbury but I suspect the draw was more significant. The first 3 home that day were in stalls 2,5 and 1. Free Verse was drawn 14 and never got into contention.
Tomorrow she looks a good thing on her Nursery debut at Goodwood; joint top RPR and clear Topspeed. I have already backed her at 4s with Bet365 buoyed by the excellent record of Hannon and Hughes at the course.
Happy punting!
Rm(M)
Sunday, 28 August 2011
Bolt-ed!
Dear All
The first race at Yarmouth today was a good example of how to make money in these type of contests.
The favourite - Appointee - from big yard, weakish in market; failed to achieve an RPR of 80 in two juvenile starts (both similar) but clearly pick of those to have raced.
The 2nd in the market - unraced - also weakish in the market.
The 3rd in the market had form falling short of Appointee.
Whilst the 4th - Alsindi - an unraced animal from the Brittain stable, was being well backed...
Look for these contests by checking near the off time on Oddschecker; be ready to pounce...
Rm(M)
The first race at Yarmouth today was a good example of how to make money in these type of contests.
The favourite - Appointee - from big yard, weakish in market; failed to achieve an RPR of 80 in two juvenile starts (both similar) but clearly pick of those to have raced.
The 2nd in the market - unraced - also weakish in the market.
The 3rd in the market had form falling short of Appointee.
Whilst the 4th - Alsindi - an unraced animal from the Brittain stable, was being well backed...
Look for these contests by checking near the off time on Oddschecker; be ready to pounce...
Rm(M)
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Bank Holiday Rain...
Dear All
The title of today's blog has been used before and recently... punting looked a bit of minefield before racing today so I decided, early doors, that making recommendations was folly and declined the opportunity.
Nevertheless, I did place one or two wagers of my own today and spurned a few other opportunities. Eton Rifles (in the 7-furlong handicap at Goodwood) was rejected from a value perspective and I've just seen that Opera Gal beat the supposed "good-thing" Elusive Pimpernel (a perennial disappointment!). Frustration again as was quite sweet on its chances but hesitated and missed the opportunity.
A cheeky Goodwood win treble went down at the second hurdle - Motrice first up - fancied quite strongly to turn over Drunken Sailor - Rakasa - caught on the line, by an admittedly deserving Regal Realm - who found all the trouble it needed - and Poet's Voice - who I couldn't see beaten in the Celebration Mile - but ran a shocker. Godolphin's winners are almost always strong in the market whereas the Poet looked strangely vulnerable...
This was followed by a bout of seconditis as Storming Bernard and Blue Surf were both turned over and the friendless Casual Glimpse was a no show in the Eton Rifles race...
The day is tinged with sadness at the news that this year's Derby winner is to be retired. Top class flat racing really is dominated by the select few. Ballydoyle was all over the Derby with Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee, Recital and Seville representing its might; Godolphin saddled a lesser light but Sheikh Mohammed had presented Her Majesty with Carlton House. Add Prince Khalid Abdulla and HH The Aga Khan and you are served up a potent mix plundering most of the Group 1 contests across the three powerhouse territories of Europe.
I mention this because it was quickly announced that Pour Moi will stand at Coolmore to add to its roster of princely bloodstock. Galileo, Montjeu, Danehill Dancer, Footstepsinthesand, Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Yeats, Peintre Celebre, Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral and Holy Roman Emperor to name but a few - a veritable Who's Who of top class animal...
Incredible therefore that Coolmore has failed to produce a Derby winner since the aforementioned High Chaparral in 2002. Amazingly, thirty-nine Coolmore participants have come to the party and failed since then; some of these have been truly outstanding racehorses...
Happy punting...
Rm(M)
The title of today's blog has been used before and recently... punting looked a bit of minefield before racing today so I decided, early doors, that making recommendations was folly and declined the opportunity.
Nevertheless, I did place one or two wagers of my own today and spurned a few other opportunities. Eton Rifles (in the 7-furlong handicap at Goodwood) was rejected from a value perspective and I've just seen that Opera Gal beat the supposed "good-thing" Elusive Pimpernel (a perennial disappointment!). Frustration again as was quite sweet on its chances but hesitated and missed the opportunity.
A cheeky Goodwood win treble went down at the second hurdle - Motrice first up - fancied quite strongly to turn over Drunken Sailor - Rakasa - caught on the line, by an admittedly deserving Regal Realm - who found all the trouble it needed - and Poet's Voice - who I couldn't see beaten in the Celebration Mile - but ran a shocker. Godolphin's winners are almost always strong in the market whereas the Poet looked strangely vulnerable...
This was followed by a bout of seconditis as Storming Bernard and Blue Surf were both turned over and the friendless Casual Glimpse was a no show in the Eton Rifles race...
The day is tinged with sadness at the news that this year's Derby winner is to be retired. Top class flat racing really is dominated by the select few. Ballydoyle was all over the Derby with Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee, Recital and Seville representing its might; Godolphin saddled a lesser light but Sheikh Mohammed had presented Her Majesty with Carlton House. Add Prince Khalid Abdulla and HH The Aga Khan and you are served up a potent mix plundering most of the Group 1 contests across the three powerhouse territories of Europe.
I mention this because it was quickly announced that Pour Moi will stand at Coolmore to add to its roster of princely bloodstock. Galileo, Montjeu, Danehill Dancer, Footstepsinthesand, Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Yeats, Peintre Celebre, Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral and Holy Roman Emperor to name but a few - a veritable Who's Who of top class animal...
Incredible therefore that Coolmore has failed to produce a Derby winner since the aforementioned High Chaparral in 2002. Amazingly, thirty-nine Coolmore participants have come to the party and failed since then; some of these have been truly outstanding racehorses...
Happy punting...
Rm(M)
Wednesday, 24 August 2011
Title chasers...
Dear All
I don't know if you share similar feelings to me but what is the fuss about the Flat Jockeys' Championship! It may be regarded as prestigious by the various jocks who have lifted the crown but does anyone following racing - apart from those talking through their pockets - really care?
We hear of certain jockeys tearing around the country; seemingly at three meetings a day during high summer, presumably creating a more hazardous environment for all of us. So, in some cases jockeys rides are being manufactured to ensure they remain competitive; those like Hanagan, Fallon and De Sousa climb aboard many more rides than high quality pilots like Philip Robinson, James Doyle, Hayley Turner and Jamie Spencer. The champion jockey should be the best jockey not the one with the most air miles!
How would it be if Aston Villa played three times as many games as Manchester United in order to make the club competitive in the Premier League!
I am not even sure that a competitive jockeys' title race adds to the spectacle of the sport. Yes of course the BBC will revel in it. Its patronising coverage (designed for those that dip in and out of the game) majored upon the Grand National and high profile personalities like Mc Coy, Dettori and Sir Henry, will point to its value. Yes, the Spencer-Sanders battle in 2007 was a decent spectacle but did it interest anyone outside the sport?
Talking of the BBC, when Hayley Turner won her G1 recently you would think she had discovered a cure for all of the World's ills. Hayley, appears to these eyes, to be a high quality jockey who has been capable of winning at this level for some time and will surely do so on many more occasions. It was a matter of record but no more than that although I am sure Hayley herself was thrilled to have ticked another of her career boxes. Women's rise to prominence in the sport is significant but let's cover it in a proper journalistic way and not simply with obsequious, condescending coverage.
Rant over!
System qualifiers worthy of mention today:
Circus Clown (3:20 Catterick) Tudhope for Goldie
Sennockian Storm (6:40 Wolverhampton)
Celebrity Sevi (6;00 Killarney)
Daffern Seal (7:00 Killarney)
Happy punting
Rm(M)
I don't know if you share similar feelings to me but what is the fuss about the Flat Jockeys' Championship! It may be regarded as prestigious by the various jocks who have lifted the crown but does anyone following racing - apart from those talking through their pockets - really care?
We hear of certain jockeys tearing around the country; seemingly at three meetings a day during high summer, presumably creating a more hazardous environment for all of us. So, in some cases jockeys rides are being manufactured to ensure they remain competitive; those like Hanagan, Fallon and De Sousa climb aboard many more rides than high quality pilots like Philip Robinson, James Doyle, Hayley Turner and Jamie Spencer. The champion jockey should be the best jockey not the one with the most air miles!
How would it be if Aston Villa played three times as many games as Manchester United in order to make the club competitive in the Premier League!
I am not even sure that a competitive jockeys' title race adds to the spectacle of the sport. Yes of course the BBC will revel in it. Its patronising coverage (designed for those that dip in and out of the game) majored upon the Grand National and high profile personalities like Mc Coy, Dettori and Sir Henry, will point to its value. Yes, the Spencer-Sanders battle in 2007 was a decent spectacle but did it interest anyone outside the sport?
Talking of the BBC, when Hayley Turner won her G1 recently you would think she had discovered a cure for all of the World's ills. Hayley, appears to these eyes, to be a high quality jockey who has been capable of winning at this level for some time and will surely do so on many more occasions. It was a matter of record but no more than that although I am sure Hayley herself was thrilled to have ticked another of her career boxes. Women's rise to prominence in the sport is significant but let's cover it in a proper journalistic way and not simply with obsequious, condescending coverage.
Rant over!
System qualifiers worthy of mention today:
Circus Clown (3:20 Catterick) Tudhope for Goldie
Sennockian Storm (6:40 Wolverhampton)
Celebrity Sevi (6;00 Killarney)
Daffern Seal (7:00 Killarney)
Happy punting
Rm(M)
Monday, 22 August 2011
Forget Manchester City; Ayr is where it's at!
Dear All
A short while ago (Tuesday, 16th August blog), I mentioned Nasri as an interesting contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. The prices are now out and you can back Nasri at 28s with Bet365. Get on!
Rm(M)
A short while ago (Tuesday, 16th August blog), I mentioned Nasri as an interesting contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. The prices are now out and you can back Nasri at 28s with Bet365. Get on!
Rm(M)
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