Saturday, 20 August 2011

The final day...

Dear All...

Yesterday was tough and a mixed day overall...

The opener today is an ultra-competitive 7-furlong Listed contest (2:00). I'm not going to linger on it for too long. Regal Parade is a class act and its speed rating is evidence of its very realistic claims for victory here. Adrian's on board for his father which is always a plus.

The one I like though is the seasonal debutante, Dafeef. Very consistent last season, although a little quirky, when trained for Godolphin, but form with Deacon Blues and Bated Breath reads well. Now with William Haggas - first time up for new yard is often the best time to catch an animal reacting positively to its new surroundings - in the blue and white of Sheikh Hamdan. Small stakes but interesting!

Each of this week's contests seem highly competitive. The Melrose (2:30) is no different. Communicator is one of the favourites on the tissue and represents the Bell-Turner combo successful yesterday with Margot Did. However, maybe Hayley cannot do the weight on Wayward Glance so Wayne Lordan has been brought over from Ireland. My three against the field are this one, Masaraat and Romeo Montague; both are identified positively by the trends and in the case of Wayward Glance and Romeo Montague, both fit that dual criteria that I like of carrying a featherweight and winning last time out.

In the Lonsdale (3:05) I am firmly in Duncan's court. Was in front 4 out on the Ascot Gold Cup before its stamina ebbed away in the latter stages. Has the class to win this.

The key to the Ebor (3:450 is the weight and age stats which narrows the filed considerably. We are looking for a 4 or 5 year old carrying no more than 9:4. I am not focussed on any animal in particular but these 3 interest me - Harlestone Times, Blissful Moment and Investissement - I think the winner will come from one of these. All are from stables that know the time of day in these type of handicaps.

In the 5-furlong Listed Roses Stakes (4:15), Gusto will cope admirably with the drop down in trip and win this with something to spare.

I have strong feelings about the Nursery at 4:50 so it's a no bet race for me.

York Glory is the one for me in the last (5:20); could be important in the race for the Jockeys' prize with Fallon jocked up by Kevin Ryan. A bit short perhaps but good RPR and a winner last time out; stable in rare good form...

Happy punting.

Rm(M)





Friday, 19 August 2011

Dear All

A disappointing return yesterday - less said the better but as all of you who punt will know only too well it happens..!

The opening handicap today (2:00) is virtually impossible. The only narrowing of the field I can make is, firstly, to 4-year olds, who seem to hold sway in recent renewals then the in-form runners i.e. Agent Archie (Haggas-trained; a proud Yorkshireman!), Lady Chaparral, Doctor Zhivago and McBirney... Not much help! Sorry!
Please note though that Messrs. Stoute and Johnston have won all of the last 4 of these.

The Gimcrack (2:30) doesn't look a great race to me this year. Justineo is in my Notebook but, although a mightily in-form Jamie Spencer is a major plus, the horse doesn't look good enough purely on ratings. Everything in the race has either blotted its copybook or achieved little. On that basis, it's a no bet race for me but if the Haggas animal was a working man's price I might step in... unlikely!!!

I think Western Aristocrat (3:05)is the unexposed one in the Strensall and I like its chances. Stoutly bred on the dam's side he appears to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Posted an excellent speed rating at Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes) and appears to have bags of improvement in him. Noseda has booked the French wizard, Olivier Peslier (lay off the pasties Olivier!) and all looks set fare for a big run.

I have always loved last time out winners with the top RPR, especially so if 5 pounds clear. Hoof It only has 2lbs in hand in the Nunthorpe (3:45)but is fast improving and the traditionally garrulous Mick Easterby's enthusiasm for the animal is infectious.

This race carries the most extraordinary stat. The last 7 winners were all a different age. Regrettably, there is no 8-year old to complete the sequence.

I read somewhere this week that Bated Breath is indifferent to ground conditions. Roger Charlton, always erring towards the side of caution, clearly disagrees as soft ground is often the cause for his enduring concern. The formbook cocks a snook at this theory also. All of its best form does appear to be on fast ground. All runs where the animal has finished outside the top three were on ground where the letter "F" was absent from the going description. The ground has been riding as if plenty of ease exists and the overnight rain will not have helped.

Juveniles have a good record in this race and David Wachman rarely tilts at windmills. I also love last time out winners at the bottom of the weights so Requinto is my selection; the price might be a little more attractive but bookmakers' fingers have been charred before by youngsters in this fascinating contest.

A maiden, at last, is next (4:15); the first of the week and usually an informative one; the most valuable (in prize money terms) maiden race of the season. It is full of possibilities. With maidens the first point of call is to establish whether any of the raced horses has posted an effort which means their experience will be put to good use. A newcomer has to be exceptional (and backed heavily) otherwise.

The debutantes come from all the right yards; Ballydoyle (twofold), Sir Henry, Hannon (won with Moriarty last year!), Noseda, Suroor and Zarooni...

I am not convinced that either of Llanarmon Lad or Burano are going to be good enough here; prefer the former (sure will be placed in first 3)...
Watch the market. The backed newcomers will come to the fore. No bet at this stage. Imperial Order - keep a close eye on him...

The final contest - a 7F fillies' handicap - is just too tricky. Coolminx (joint top-rated/winner last time out) is the one to which I keep coming back. Lee Topliss might be on board to counteract the penalty but nevertheless Paul Hanagan is on Jeanie Galloway for his guv'nor and catches the eye; a Fahey plot at his home course perhaps!

Happy punting!

Rm(M)




Thursday, 18 August 2011

Fetch the bunting out or will the Irish have the last laugh!

Dear All...

Very pleased with yesterday's first three races where, despite finding no punting opportunity (did have a sneaky yankee!), we did highlight the big priced second (early price anyway)in the opener and the first 3 home in th next two contests. Rodrigo didn't appear and My Boy Jack remains in the Notebook.

The other Notebook horses were disappointing. I constantly review how long I keep these live depending upon the origin of the information. One or two I get horribly wrong. Nevertheless, I don't back them blind; merely serve as a pointer.

The medium I use has not supplied the information today so playing in the dark...

Let's concentrate on York...

Do we really want to back Crown Dependency (2:00) at the prices. Might win; RPRs say he will; from the right yard with jockey expert at getting these types home in front but with 20 runners, mostly unexposed, surely one of them will improve past a horse which has been beaten in more races than it has won and both of its recent starts. I'm against. Not a lay though, unless odds-on.

Hestian interests me. I haven't looked at the stats but I think Tommy Stack has a good record when bringing fancied types over here.

The Lowther (2:30)is even tighter than the Acomb. Again, discipline is the order of the day. The last 5 renewals suggest that the two penalised runners, Best Terms and Gamilati will be beaten; Angels Will Fall has yet to put up a significant time (small field victories though) but is the solid contender. I give it a significant chance but I can't help liking the collateral form with Frederick Engels and the debut of RPR of 90+ posted by Shumoos who, like Fort Bastion yesterday, might come back to form. Two factors against Shumoos which prevent me from giving her a major word are the uncertainty of the ground (posted that high RPR on good to firm) and the trip (best RPR over 5F - however, the breeding gives me hope.

Again, no strong view on the Addleshaw Goddard (3:05) but the evidence says that no horse older than 4 years can win this (spurious stat I know!) but in the absence of other compelling evidence let's go with it. By that stat. alone the field is narrowed (Ben Aitken)to 7. Add these next two ingredients to the mix - joint top RPR and Spencer riding for Simcock - and suddenly you are sitting in a vat of chocolate with nobody watching!
It's not scientific but I like it. Pintura wins the 3:05(!)

The Yorkshire Oaks (3:45) is tarnished by the non-appearance of the commendably tough and talented Snow Fairy but it remains a fair field.The evidence of the last 5 years tells us, quite powerfully, that this race is won by a superstar(ess)! The only one of those in this field is now a non-runner.

We are looking for a champion 4-year old - Crystal Cappella is the closest - or a classic-winning 3-year old. Step up Blue Bunting or Banimpire. The trouble with the former of these two is her requirement for a fast pace to sit off and then swoop late. Will she get these circumstances in an 8-runner field? Back -in-running is best option when pace of contest known or, for those of you, who must have a wager then a combination exacta. Not convinced though; save pennies for a better opportunity.

Right! The Galtres (4:15). If Banimpire wins the Oaks then Field of Miracles should be a warm order in this. Forget her performance in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood, the balance of her form gives her a fair chance here. The older horses are not good enough; Polly's Mark may run into a place.

A tricky staying handicap (4:50) to conclude. Not much to say here. I looked at this from both sides now (Joni Mitchell 1970) and have no real basis upon which to hang the hat I don't own. Alazan is from a jumps yard and Hughesie is up and Sea Change (long absence) / Chilly Filly are from dual-purpose yards, all fit age stat (limited evidence) all finished 3rd last time (semblance of form) and all are unepxosed at the trip. The best RPR at trip is Magicalmysterytour who does not have a progressive profile... might be one lurking beneath (like Pam Ayres' false teeth) but I doubt it.

Happy punting!

Rm(M)

ps - thank you to Richard Stoddart for his invaluable help with Twitter late last night!

Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Are you awaiting the dawn or are you more of a midday person..?

Dear All

Nothing grabbing me this morning especially but let me tell you what thoughts I do have...

I have been tracking Rac(e)y (Some Girls Do!!!) all season - Kevin Ryan's have been in rare form all year - and he is of interest in the opening sprint handicap (2:00pm). Best price is 16s as we speak. Don't be too perturbed that Spencer is not in the saddle; he is almost certainly committed to Ryan's other runner as Falasteen is owned by the Good Doctor (Marwan Koukash). A former inmate of Stoute's and,at that time from the powerful Cheveley Park Stud unit, he is by Medicean and really should stay further on breeding.

There are lots of options in the Acomb (2:30) and it's a No Bet race for me. I think that either Entifaadha or Zumbi will win but expect Fort Bastion to run better than expected; his RPR on debut was impressive and Maybe has franked the form.

I have 4 in my Notebook for the Voltigeur (3:05)...

Sea Moon - could be anything and Hughes an interesting booking by Stoute. Fallon nor Spencer considered?
Thimaar,Hunter's Light and Al Kazeem probably not good enough but all are interesting especially the latter who was pulled out of a contest earlier this month. I like recent non-runners as it suggests that the horse is primed to run but connections are waiting for the conditions to be perfect when the cash is down!

Seville should win but 1 win from 7 tempers enthusiasm at the price...

The Juddmonte (3:40pm) is trappy. History points to a 3 or 4-year old winner and a colt all of which points away from Midday though her record is such that she cannot be dismissed. Her adjusted RPR is 1lb ahead of Await The Dawn so, although he also has sound claims, at odds-on I will pass. I have this irksome loyalty to Roderic O'Connor solely because he in my TTTF team and I backed him to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. Looking at the performances of Ballydoyle's 3-year olds in this race over the recent times suggests he ain't going to win. If I was having a bet though it would be a small wager on Roderic on the nose!

I will continue to follow Our Boy Jack for the time being so he is my selection for the Nursery (4:15pm)

I have no selection for the concluding handicap.

Others in the Notebook who are running today are:

Doc Hay - 3:15 Carlisle.
Sansili - 6:40 Hereford - winning system qualifier (follow until beaten)
Wychwoods Mist - 8:10 Hereford - system qualifier; pulled up last time.
Midnight Feast - 7:00 Folkestone - needs to learn to settle.
Midsummer Sun - 3:30 Nottingham - one more chance. Highly reagrded.

That's it folks.

Good luck.

Rm(M)

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

One more sleep to York (if time to sleep)....

Dear All

Timekeeping has never been my forte...

I have unearthed a little gem of a system, Like most systems it is based upon sound data and not on guesswork... I do not have the appropriate software so cannot properly track its profitability historically. I have no doubt about the success of its strike rate but successful strike rates don't necessarily make money...

Juveniles on second start in maidens in circumstances where they are the only horse in the race to have achieved RPR of 80 or more on debut and on only start. Those achieving the 80+ landmark on a start subsequent to debut do not qualify!

I will try to keep you informed of qualifiers on a daily basis... Prices are sometimes too short but occasionally, particularly where a less fashionable stable is involved, there is real value. I might need to tweak the system to increase the profit angle...

TTTF not reaching last year's heights. Havant and Casamento have not contributed, Goldikova has ensured a couple of reverses; Blue Bunting and So You Think were not on my radar - Canford retired... back to drawing board over jumps...

Mystified by over reaction to Grand National deaths earlier this year. I am convinced that the number of runners, the quality of the field (so leniency of the handicapper) and the downsizing of the fences (so easier for good horses in a big field to travel faster!) It's just lip service dressed up as concern for welfare of horses... danger that Gold Cup winners will be winning National in next 5 years..

So which horses have caught my eye recently...

FALLEN FOR YOU - winner of a tasty Newmarket maiden on July course; achieved the important 80+ RPR number, on debut; started favourite, entered in G1 contest in Autumn, stable knows a Guineas horse when it has one...

LEARN - Ballydoyle inmate; won on 3rd start; O'Brien is a master of bringing his runners along slowly - not scared to lose; achieved 80+ on all 3 starts and 93 when winning latest; a son of Galileo out of a Spinning World mare...

NASRI - Ayr Gold Cup winner in waiting. Stays 7 furlongs well (need a stayer in top handicap sprints); competitive in big-field handicaps and trained by the sprint master - Dandy Nicholls...

GASSIN GOLF - trained by the Master of Heath House; stoutly bred (as so many of his are) a son of Montjeu out of an Hernando mare. Jump boys will be salivating... impressive last night off modest pace at Kempton Park on the all-weather...

COMEHOMEQUIETLY - looked a promising individual when winning a Novice Chase at Worcester this evening; jumping boldly at times but novicey at others - room for improvement but big engine; from a very unfashionable, small yard might just surprise and run up a sequence...

Will post York thoughts shortly...

KR

Rm (Mark)


Sunday, 14 August 2011

Refreshed...

Dear All

Protracted break but now back in the saddle. Plans afoot to broaden content and first thoughts will follow later today.

I have been having a very successful time backing winners in juvenile maidens; prices hugely a bit tight but many races so uncompetitive that experience, breeding and the right stable reveal so much. The key though is Racing Post Ratings - more on this later along with update on TTTF teams and 5 to follow from recent course activity.

York content all week...

KR

Rm (Mark)

Sunday, 17 July 2011

Apologies.....

Dear All...

Sincerest ones to you all.

Have decided to temporarily suspend service as my day job has taken over for the time being...
Royal Ascot has come; Glorious Goodwood is just around the corner and my annual holiday is also imminent. So planning to be back for York in August...

Might be the odd snippet here and there when time allows!

Happy punting.

Rm(Mark)