Let not statistics and trends be your master but, instead, be your servant. Ignore at your peril, but don't forget to leave room for intuition, insight and form study. 
The Grand National may seem, to the uninitiated, a lottery, but for long periods in its history it creates fairly predictable themes, meandering only slowly towards new trends, all of which the keen punter has to identify and interpret.
History tells us, not with absolute certainty, that the winner will probably be aged 9, 10 or 11 years old. For many years, keenly fancied contenders have fallen by the wayside due to their lack of maturity. 2015 will, I'm sure, be no different with leading contenders - Unioniste | Shutthefrontdoor | Many Clouds |  Cause Of Causes | Ballycasey | Sam Winner | The Druid's Nephew | Spring Heeled | probably failing on this vital statistic. I am prepared to take this overwhelming position at face value despite the depth of quality indicated by the list above.
The old adage of "back a 2 and a half miler" is almost certainly now completely discredited, ever more so now the fences are fundamentally easier meaning that, in a big field, they are taken along at high speed demanding tactical speed in the first 2 to 3 miles and stamina to burn in the final third. Tactical speed is a component of class. History tells us that to win a Grand National, entrants probably must have won a Class 2 (or higher class) race over a minimum trip of 25 furlongs and preferably further. Be very aware of previous success in the Scottish National (significant recently), the Irish National (highly significant in the past), the Welsh National (also highly significant in the past) and the Midlands National. I'm also very mindful of Newbury's Hennessy Gold Cup form; without doubt, to my mind, the most vital piece of staying chase form every season, though not perhaps as relevant over this extreme trip.
The Grand National throws up a regular supply of race specialists; such as Hedgehunter and Cappa Bleu. Perversely though, the contest is rarely won by a competitor which has failed previously in the race; Like all common trends, profiles and statistics, such factors are there to be overcome and occasionally, as in normal life, this happens. Mon Mome did so and so did the laudable Hedgehunter. I prefer to examine those with good form experience of Aintree but, nonetheless, debuting in the race.
There is a key BHA Rating range - essentially now between 139 and 148 and, at least for the time being, don't expect the winner to carry more than 11 stone 5 pounds to victory, probably less. 
Other key factors are a minimum or thereabouts of 10 chase starts, a minimum of 3 chase victories (preferably 2 of which were at trips of more than 25-furlongs) and, from my own study, to have achieved a Racing Post Rating (very reliable) of at least 150 in a steeplechase.
In recent times, I've given less credence in my weighting of factors for selection purposes, to trends, except in this race. It is unique, being over a trip far in excess of the distances usually travelled by its competitors, at a time when the ground is changing as winter turns into summer, with the biggest single field coming under orders at any time of the year. 
Taking all of these factors into account, one horse stands out meeting every criteria and warranting maximum support and I've a case to make for another to win and 3 others, at bigger prices, to place. Alongside this theory, I've no doubt that at least one previous runner in the race will again perform with credit but probably not win i.e. I suspect Rocky Creek (5th last year) will again be competitive and just fall short - his stamina seeping away in the final stages and Alvarado may creep a little closer and be the latest perennial bridesmaid. 
Please wait until the day to place your each way bets as at least one bookie will offer 7 places and others, 6. 
One other notable factor for the National is the application of headgear. Worn ever more prevalently and by better horses more regularly, the National is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, different. In the last 4 years, of the top 6 finishers each time, only Double Seven and Chance Du Roy did so, and that was last year. Of the last 4 winners, I can't find that any one of them wore headgear in any race during their entire career - not even a tongue tie to aid breathing.Perhaps the reason for this the big field and the importance of having a broad vision of what's going on around the horse. I guess breathing has to be spot-on too for such a mega distance. Just a thought.

My selections are:

To Win - Godsmejudge (Best) and Al Co (Next Best)
To Place (not each way) - Carlito Brigante, Wyck Hill and Portrait King
Each Way (provided first 6 or 7) - Rocky Creek and Alvarado

Cheltenham Festival | Mares' Hurdle

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

As I post this PP is 33 to 1 NRNB for the Mares' Hurdle. Those of you that back and lay must, simply must, take this price with that insurance. She is a good mare and, to me, still no guarantees that Annie will 1) turn up and 2) Turn up in top form. Of course, if she does and is even close to full fitness and firing then she will carry the rest of the field home on her back but if not this and this alternative is declared then the price will collapse; much shorter elsewhere. Likely PP has inside track on Irish runners but nevertheless...

Jessica Harrington said this recently in the Irish Field publication about ROCK ON THE MOOR,
"She won nicely this week but we are making no decision about whether or not she will go for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle until next week. We just want to see how the race is shaping up"
Fill your betting boots...

Some decent racing today but I can’t find anything of real value and so will keep my powder dry. Sir Michael Stoute unleashed a useful type, the beautifully bred, PETERHOF who, in keeping with the better juveniles in the Barbadian’s care, at this stage of the season, was a winner first time out on the all-weather at Lingfield Park. A Derby entry, he will probably be among the yard’s best 3-year old’s next season.

Half an hour later, an even more impressive juvenile, this time from the Godolphin operation, CLASSIC COLLECTION was a facile 6-length winner and oozed class throughout. Keep an eye out for this one as he progresses.

Sir Mark Prescott’s ALBA VERDE surely has the absolute modus operandi of a horse from the yard. Owned by Kirsten Rausing, a winner last twice, so progressive, entered in 5 days time in a similar contest. Regrettably though such forensic information adds up to a short-price and I’m sure anyone who has even micro-knowledge of the subject will be able to pick this one out. Selecting such horses is not the MO of this blog now or in the future.

Racehorsingman

I want to take on El Namoose in the closing bumper (5:20) at Huntingdon later today. It is notoriously difficult for those penalised runners to succeed in these contests. The historic record of this race supports this theory, albeit not unequivocally and Purple Bay, a similar sort from the same stable, was beaten at odds-on carrying one such penalty last season.

Charlie Longsdon won that one and might this year with Kiteney Wood, an ex-Irish pointer, though something tells me that the Oliver Sherwood beast, Kilgeel Hill, about which I've read good reports, will prevail. You don't get much better family genetics than Oscar (sire) and Executive Perk (dam-sire). Whatever happens today, I suspect we will hear a lot more about Kilgeel Hill.

Seolan is of major interest in the 7-furlong handicap (3:40) at Leicester back on her favoured soft ground. Roger Charlton's lightly raced type won her first two starts in Ireland (for Mr Prendergast and Mr Deegan) on bad ground and then twice proved unsuccessful across the pond on much faster going. With Danehill Dancer as her dam-sire, cut is almost certainly a pre-requisite and there will be plenty of the stuff at Leicester, I'm sure. Buick rides. The one black mark is a 409-day absence from the track.

Racehorsingman

Nothing of great interest for tomorrow though a couple of interesting maiden fillies in the 3:00 at Salisbury. Rae Guest, specialist trainer of fillies, saddles Miniskirt whilst Mick Channon has Victoria Bird, more exposed, but promising for handicaps going forward.

Both have been absent for some considerable time, suggesting training problems, which tempers enthusiasm for a wager on either or, indeed, both but you could do worse than a reverse exacta or forecast.

No selection, though two for the little black book...

I saw Doing Fine beat the the highly rated and useful Carraig Mor and win at Ascot last November. I made a mental note of him then.

Today, the son of Presenting out a Montelimar mare - prime jumping stock - makes his chasing debut at his trainer's home track of Ffos Las this afternoon in what looks a fairly competitive little novice handicap over 3-miles.

The Curtis yard appears in fine form and top jock Jason Maguire is booked. With an absence of 320+ days the price of 5/1 (backed this morning) is perhaps a tad shorter than I'd prefer. This though is a stable going somewhere and a horse with talent. My nap of the day and a horse (and stable) to follow.

Racehorsingman

Dear All

Two selections for tomorrow though will be watchful of the going...

Dance of Fire - 2:50 Epsom - only 3 runners and not great value but Andrew Balding's non-handicap juveniles at Epsom are always worth considering - small stakes for bank accumulation purposes...

Mission Approved - 3:25 Epsom - improving (ex-Juddmonte) type; best RPR last time out at Glorious Goodwood, last few runs all over 6-furlongs - both wins over 7-furlongs; has won on soft ground; very consistent and worth a few quid.

More soon...

Racehorsingman